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Dev Patel = Harvard University Justin Sandefur = Center for Global Development Arvind Subramanian = Ashoka University Doug Irwin = Not specified
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Unconditional convergence = The process where poorer countries grow faster than richer ones Middle-income trap = A situation where a country's growth stagnates at middle-income levels Economic growth = Increase in the production of goods and services over time Volatility = The degree of variation in trading prices over time
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Working Paper 566 = An identifier for a specific paper in research February 2021 = The date of publication Keywords = Terms that highlight the main topics of the paper JEL = Journal of Economic Literature classification system
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Study Notes
Economic Growth Convergence
- Unconditional divergence, a historical trend, where poor countries lagged behind rich countries, has changed; poorer nations have been catching up since the mid-1990s.
- This new convergence results from growth acceleration in developing countries, not from a slowdown in wealthy nations.
- Middle-income countries have shown higher growth rates since the mid-1980s, challenging the idea of a "middle-income trap."
Historical Economic Context
- In 1950, U.S. per capita income was 17 times that of India; this differential increased to 30 times by 1990.
- The growth rate for poorer countries has improved, with significant discussions dating back decades being re-evaluated with recent data.
- The β parameter for convergence indicates how quickly countries can close the income gap; for 2000-2019, this parameter is .00425, suggesting a half-life for catch-up of approximately 170 years.
Convergence Trends
- Despite signs of convergence, the overall variance in per capita GDP among countries (σ-convergence) has not shown meaningful improvement, with no significant σ-convergence observed post-2008 financial crisis.
- Convergence in poorer countries correlates with both increased growth in those countries and decreased growth in richer nations.
Geographic Economic Performance
- The African continent has shown a persistent drag on global convergence rates; excluding sub-Saharan Africa increases the convergence coefficient.
- In contrast, Asian countries have had a lower convergence coefficient when excluded from the analysis, indicating their faster economic progress.
Middle-Income Trap Analysis
- The concept of a "middle-income trap" assumes middle-income nations cannot transition to high-income status; evidence suggests this notion is outdated.
- Growth rates for middle-income countries exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship with initial income, indicating healthy growth patterns.
- Volatility in growth rates has decreased for both low- and middle-income countries since the 1980s.
Growth Persistence Insights
- High-income nations saw growth persistence decline after the 1970s, while middle-income countries now show more stable growth patterns.
- Convergence suggests low-income and high-income countries have similarly low levels of growth persistence, contradicting historical trends.
- Growth instability persists across all income groups, while middle-income countries stand out for their enhanced growth permanency.
Conclusion on Economic Dynamics
- The lack of a middle-income trap supports the idea of continued convergence; countries are increasingly coming out of stagnation.
- The narrative around economic convergence is shifting, urging policymakers and researchers to reconsider long-held beliefs about growth trajectories in developing nations.
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Description
Explore the transformative period in economic growth where poorer countries are catching up with wealthier nations. This quiz delves into the evidence and factors contributing to this convergence that has been occurring since the mid-1990s. Understand the implications and the historical context behind this shift.