Thailand's Submarine Purchase Consequences

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Questions and Answers

What is the potential impact of China's construction of the submarine base at Sattahip on U.S.-Thailand relations?

It will lead to the closure of U.S. military bases in Thailand.

It will strengthen Thailand's alliance with the United States.

It may increase U.S. investment in Thailand.

It could exacerbate the trust deficit with the United States. (correct)

What could Thailand risk if it overestimates its indispensability to the United States?

Marginalization by the United States. (correct)

Expansion of its military capabilities.

Increased military support from the U.S.

Strengthened ties with neighboring countries.

What are the potential outcomes for Thailand if it deepens relations with China?

A stable alliance with the United States.

Increased dependence on China. (correct)

Increased strategic autonomy.

Reduction of trade deficits with the U.S.

Which Southeast Asian countries might the United States strengthen relationships with in light of Thailand's actions?

Vietnam and the Philippines. Signup and view all the answers

What is a plausible outcome for Thailand in the high-risk bargaining game it is engaged in?

A hollow alliance with the United States. Signup and view all the answers

What was one claim made by a senior advisor to the Thai government about the Chinese submarine purchase in August 2017?

It successfully achieved the desired goal of obtaining US attention. Signup and view all the answers

What risk is associated with Thailand’s increasing dependence on China?

It may enhance China’s ability to support its military from Thai territory. Signup and view all the answers

How has US interest in Thailand changed since the 2014 coup?

It has waned compared to other Southeast Asian states. Signup and view all the answers

What was the trend observed in the participation numbers for the Cobra Gold exercise after the 2006 coup?

Average participation shrank from about 17,000 to around 10,500 persons. Signup and view all the answers

Which significant military purchase request from Thailand was recently declined by the United States?

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Signup and view all the answers

Which country was the first in Southeast Asia to conduct a military exercise with China?

Thailand Signup and view all the answers

What kind of military exercises did Thailand conduct with China in 2014?

Air force maneuvers Signup and view all the answers

What is one potential consequence of Thailand's strategy of maintaining ambiguity in its foreign relations?

It may lead to increased reliance on China. Signup and view all the answers

What was the primary focus of Thailand's initial military activities with China?

Humanitarian relief and counterterrorism Signup and view all the answers

What significant military infrastructure is China establishing in Thailand?

Submarine pier and base at Sattahip Signup and view all the answers

How did Thailand's relationship with China evolve following the 2014 coup?

Arms discussions, including submarines, commenced Signup and view all the answers

What was one of the attractive features for China selling submarines to Thailand?

Existing basing infrastructure at Sattahip Signup and view all the answers

How might the purchase of submarines affect Thailand's relationship with the US?

It risks reducing US engagement due to perceptions of alignment with China Signup and view all the answers

What prior relationship context influenced Thailand's arms purchases from China since the 1980s?

To counter Vietnam's presence in Cambodia Signup and view all the answers

What does the phrase 'dominance denial' refer to in the context of Thailand's politico-military strategy?

Prioritizing autonomy and avoiding alignment with any great power Signup and view all the answers

What risk is associated with Thailand's strategic hedging practices with China?

Unintended consequences that could destabilize relations Signup and view all the answers

Which country did Thailand compete with for influence during the 1980s arms purchases?

Vietnam Signup and view all the answers

What role does Thailand's coastline play concerning Chinese military strategy?

It provides additional basing options for China’s naval operations. Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of the recent joint naval exercise 'Blue Strike' indicates a growth in military cooperation?

Complex operations including urban combat and helicopter landings Signup and view all the answers

What is one consequence of Thailand's perceived alignment with China for other ASEAN states?

Likelihood of deeper concerns about regional security dynamics Signup and view all the answers

How did China respond to Thailand's military needs during the 1980s?

By supplying military materiel at discounted prices Signup and view all the answers

What implications does China's provision of submarines to Thailand have for its broader geopolitical strategy?

Undermines US alliances in the Indo-Pacific region Signup and view all the answers

What may be a potential perception of Thailand's submarine deal from the perspective of regional players?

It signifies a firm alignment with China Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Thailand's Submarine Purchase: Unintended Consequences

Thailand's elites employ hedging strategies (e.g., temporal hedging, dominance denial) to manage major power relations.
A Thai government advisor claimed the 2017 Chinese submarine purchase drew US attention, but maintaining ambiguity has risks.
One risk is increased Thai reliance on China, potentially contradicting Thailand's desire for multi-directional alignment.
Chinese maintenance and logistics facilities in Thailand may enhance China's military logistical capabilities.
Another risk is reduced US investment in the Thai alliance due to increased Chinese military presence.
US interest in Thailand has waned since the 2014 coup compared to other Southeast Asian states (Vietnam, Indonesia).
US presidential visits to Thailand have decreased (last visit by Obama in 2012). Trump and Biden visited other Southeast Asian countries, but not Thailand.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has prioritized Indonesia over Thailand in visits.
Cobra Gold, a key US-Thailand alliance exercise, has reduced in size (40% decline since 2006).

Growing Thai-China Strategic Relationship

Thailand led Southeast Asia in military exercises with China (2005).
Collaboration has expanded (special forces in 2007, marines in 2010, air forces in 2014).
Exercises initially focused on non-traditional areas (humanitarian, counterterrorism).
Recent naval exercises (e.g., Blue Strike) have more combat-focused elements (joint command, anti-submarine ops).
China claims high trust and deep integration in these exercises.
Chinese logistics support and military production facilities proliferate throughout Thailand, often co-located with Thai bases.
Examples include a weapons maintenance center, a spare parts warehouse, and a military hardware repair facility at Takhli Air Force Base.
The Chinese Submarine company (CSOC) is constructing a submarine pier and base, enhancing China's logistical presence.

Chinese Motives and Historical Context

China has skill in exploiting opportunities from international shifts and domestic crises.
Thailand's interest in Chinese military equipment goes back to the 1980s (pseudo-alliance against Vietnam).
China offered discounted arms during this period. (e.g., heavy artillery, tanks, Jianghu-class frigates).
China's approach mirrors similar deals with Pakistan.
This strategy of offering military hardware at discounted prices may be beneficial in aligning nations, especially under specific geopolitical circumstances.
China strengthened its defense relationships with Cambodia after Hun Sen's 1997 coup.
The timing of submarine discussions in Thailand followed the 2014 coup.

Potential Impacts and Conclusion

The submarine purchase signals geopolitical alignment, but this signaling may be weak for two key reasons:
- Thailand prioritizes autonomy and ambiguity in its politico-military strategy via 'dominance denial'.
- Maritime forces are low priority in Thai defense planning.
China gains an ally and elevates arms export profile.
Thailand's ability to manage risks from unintended consequences might be limited.
- The US might reduce engagement with Thailand, rather than increasing it.
China actively deepens ties with Thailand, and increasing Chinese military presence in Thailand could exacerbate trust issues with the US.
Thailand's deepening relations with China may lead to increased dependence
The submarine purchase presents a high-risk approach for Thailand, potentially resulting in reduced strategic autonomy and a weakened alliance with the US.

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Description

Explore the unintended consequences of Thailand's 2017 submarine purchase from China, including its impact on US-Thailand relations and the implications of increased Chinese military presence. This quiz analyzes the strategic hedging employed by Thailand amidst changing power dynamics in Southeast Asia.