Thailand's Submarine Purchase Consequences

Thailand's Submarine Purchase: Unintended Consequences

• Thailand's elites employ hedging strategies (e.g., temporal hedging, dominance denial) to manage major power relations.
• A Thai government advisor claimed the 2017 Chinese submarine purchase drew US attention, but maintaining ambiguity has risks.
• One risk is increased Thai reliance on China, potentially contradicting Thailand's desire for multi-directional alignment.
• Chinese maintenance and logistics facilities in Thailand may enhance China's military logistical capabilities.
• Another risk is reduced US investment in the Thai alliance due to increased Chinese military presence.
• US interest in Thailand has waned since the 2014 coup compared to other Southeast Asian states (Vietnam, Indonesia).
• US presidential visits to Thailand have decreased (last visit by Obama in 2012). Trump and Biden visited other Southeast Asian countries, but not Thailand.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has prioritized Indonesia over Thailand in visits.
• Cobra Gold, a key US-Thailand alliance exercise, has reduced in size (40% decline since 2006).

Growing Thai-China Strategic Relationship

• Thailand led Southeast Asia in military exercises with China (2005).
• Collaboration has expanded (special forces in 2007, marines in 2010, air forces in 2014).
• Exercises initially focused on non-traditional areas (humanitarian, counterterrorism).
• Recent naval exercises (e.g., Blue Strike) have more combat-focused elements (joint command, anti-submarine ops).
• China claims high trust and deep integration in these exercises.
• Chinese logistics support and military production facilities proliferate throughout Thailand, often co-located with Thai bases.
• Examples include a weapons maintenance center, a spare parts warehouse, and a military hardware repair facility at Takhli Air Force Base.
• The Chinese Submarine company (CSOC) is constructing a submarine pier and base, enhancing China's logistical presence.

Chinese Motives and Historical Context

• China has skill in exploiting opportunities from international shifts and domestic crises.
• Thailand's interest in Chinese military equipment goes back to the 1980s (pseudo-alliance against Vietnam).
• China offered discounted arms during this period. (e.g., heavy artillery, tanks, Jianghu-class frigates).
• China's approach mirrors similar deals with Pakistan.
• This strategy of offering military hardware at discounted prices may be beneficial in aligning nations, especially under specific geopolitical circumstances.
• China strengthened its defense relationships with Cambodia after Hun Sen's 1997 coup.
• The timing of submarine discussions in Thailand followed the 2014 coup.

Potential Impacts and Conclusion

• The submarine purchase signals geopolitical alignment, but this signaling may be weak for two key reasons:

  • Thailand prioritizes autonomy and ambiguity in its politico-military strategy via 'dominance denial'.
  • Maritime forces are low priority in Thai defense planning.

• China gains an ally and elevates arms export profile.

• Thailand's ability to manage risks from unintended consequences might be limited.

  • The US might reduce engagement with Thailand, rather than increasing it.

• China actively deepens ties with Thailand, and increasing Chinese military presence in Thailand could exacerbate trust issues with the US.

• Thailand's deepening relations with China may lead to increased dependence

• The submarine purchase presents a high-risk approach for Thailand, potentially resulting in reduced strategic autonomy and a weakened alliance with the US.