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Questions and Answers
When was the first quantitative approach research with TF published?
What method was proposed in the first TF research published in 1980?
In the last five years, how do the published quantitative studies compare to qualitative studies?
Which approach has seen a significant increase compared to the other in the last five years?
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How does the number of quantitative studies published compare to qualitative studies historically since the first publishing?
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What is the focus of the exploratory approaches mentioned?
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Which industry applied matrix methods as mentioned in the content?
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What types of methods were utilized in telecommunications services?
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In which journal was the content published?
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What was the volume and issue number of the journal in which the content appeared?
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What was the primary purpose of the extensive search conducted?
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Which platforms were used to gather articles for the database?
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What is one characteristic of NDSL and RISS mentioned in the content?
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Between which years were the TF related articles published according to the data?
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What type of information is suggested to be included in the database related to TF articles?
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Which of the following was NOT mentioned as a source for collecting articles?
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What does the acronym TF likely stand for in this context?
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Which of the following would NOT be a likely reason for including patents in the database?
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What types of approaches are contrasted in the content?
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Which method is mentioned that relates to predicting the future?
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What is a characteristic of normative approaches according to the content?
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Which approach begins with a preliminary exploration of future possibilities?
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What is the primary focus of the study mentioned?
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Which aspect of technology forecasting (TF) does the study NOT provide information on?
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What do inward bound methods typically focus on?
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What is generally the outcome of qualitative and quantitative approaches over time?
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What gap in TF research does the study aim to address?
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What is a common method mentioned in the TF research for demand forecasting?
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The content suggests that which method can create a technology roadmap?
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Which characteristic of TF methods is discussed in the study?
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What is a common goal of both qualitative and quantitative approaches?
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What is a limitation of the review articles mentioned in the study?
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What is one identified area that the study contributes to within TF research?
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Which TF aspect was addressed by only one article as per the study?
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Study Notes
Technology Forecasting
- This study focuses on identifying the trends in technology forecasting (TF) methods and their application in different industries.
- The study also looks at the evolution and practical applications of TF.
- The research aims to understand the relationship between TF methods and their use in various technology industries.
TF Methods and Their Types
- Quantitative Approaches: These methods involve using data and statistical models to forecast technological advancements. They include methods like logistic envelope approximation.
- Qualitative Approaches: These methods rely on expert opinions, surveys, and subjective assessments to predict future technologies. Examples include Delphi method and technology roadmap.
- Exploratory Approaches: These methods focus on identifying emerging trends and their potential impact on future technologies. They involve analyzing data and identifying emerging patterns.
- Normative Approaches: These approaches are inward-bound, meaning they start with a desired future state and work backward to identify the steps needed to get there.
Evolution of TF Methods
- The first quantitative TF research using a logistic envelope approximation method was published in 1980.
- The study observes a growing trend in quantitative studies compared to qualitative studies, especially in the past 5 years.
- The use of exploratory approaches has seen an increase during the past few years, particularly in industries like material and telecommunications.
- The study found that the ratio of subjective, exploratory, and normative approaches is not evenly distributed, reflecting the diverse focus of TF research.
Limitations of Existing Research
- Existing research largely focuses on the types and characteristics of TF methods, with limited information about the specific methods applied in various technology industries.
- There is limited analysis of the evolution of TF research over time.
- Previous research included some TF methods related to demand forecasting, such as diffusion models and simple time series analyses, but did not delve into the broader spectrum of TF methods.
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Description
This quiz explores the various methods of technology forecasting, including quantitative, qualitative, exploratory, and normative approaches. It highlights the evolution of these methods and their applications across different industries. Test your knowledge on the strategies used to predict technological advancements!
