Statistics: Normal Distribution Concepts
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Questions and Answers

What percentage of the area under the normal curve lies within one standard deviation of the mean?

  • 75.20%
  • 95.44%
  • 68.26% (correct)
  • 85.40%
  • For a normally distributed dataset, what percentage of cases lie within two standard deviations of the mean?

  • 95.44% (correct)
  • 99.72%
  • 68.26%
  • 90.00%
  • Which of the following Z scores corresponds to the percentage of area that covers 90% under the normal curve?

  • 2.00
  • 2.58
  • 1.96
  • 1.65 (correct)
  • In a sample of 1000 cases, approximately how many cases would fall within one standard deviation from the mean?

    <p>683 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are Z scores primarily used for in a normal distribution?

    <p>To express original scores in units of standard deviation (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the mean of a standardized normal distribution?

    <p>0 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement correctly describes Z scores?

    <p>Z scores can be interpreted as the number of standard deviations an individual score is from the mean. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the given example, what is the standard deviation of the raw scores 10, 20, 30, 40, 50?

    <p>14.14 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If a raw score is 30, what is its Z score in this example?

    <p>0.000 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens when raw scores are converted into Z scores?

    <p>They are transformed to a different scale with a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary characteristic of the Normal Curve?

    <p>It is a symmetrical distribution. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In what way does the Normal Curve serve empirical data?

    <p>It provides a theoretical model for describing distributions. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT a property of the Normal Curve?

    <p>It can represent skewed data. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What term is used to describe how well a statistical measure reflects the true value?

    <p>Validity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How is the Normal Curve visually represented?

    <p>As a perfectly smooth frequency polygon. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In terms of measures of central tendency, which measure is NOT equivalent for a Normal Curve?

    <p>Range. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does it mean for a variable to be 'continuous'?

    <p>It can take on any value within a given range. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which method would best describe the characteristics of data in a Normal distribution?

    <p>Descriptive statistics that summarize data. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does a percentile indicate in a dataset?

    <p>The point below which a specific percentage of cases fall. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the process of finding a raw score from a percentile, what is the first step when given a percentile of 98.5%?

    <p>Subtract 50% from 98.5%. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which Z score corresponds to an area of 0.4850 as described in the example?

    <p>2.17 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How do you find the area between two scores that are on opposite sides of the mean?

    <p>Add the areas between each score and the mean. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the combined area between IQ scores of 93 and 112?

    <p>36.25% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When finding the area between two scores on the same side of the mean, what calculation is performed?

    <p>Subtract the smaller area from the larger area. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If the area between Z scores of +0.65 and +1.05 is calculated to be 11.09%, what interpretation can be made?

    <p>11.09% of the total population falls between these scores. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    For a normal distribution, what does the mean represent?

    <p>The point where half of the data is below and half is above. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the Z score represent in relation to a raw score?

    <p>The difference between the raw score and the mean, divided by the standard deviation. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the probability of rolling a number other than 1 or 3 on your first try?

    <p>0.5000 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What type of variables are always discrete?

    <p>Nominal and ordinal variables (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In a discrete probability distribution, what should the sum of all probabilities equal?

    <p>1.00 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best describes a continuous probability distribution?

    <p>Probabilities represent an area under the curve. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How are probabilities calculated for continuous variables?

    <p>For a range of values under the curve (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following events has the same probability in rolling a die?

    <p>All outcomes have equal probabilities (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a 4 on a single roll of a die?

    <p>0.3334 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which type of probability distribution requires calculations for a range of values due to their infinite nature?

    <p>Continuous distributions (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the probability of randomly selecting a child with an IQ between 95 and 100?

    <p>0.0987 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the probability of selecting a child with an IQ less than 123?

    <p>0.8749 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If 100 children are selected, approximately how many would have IQ scores less than 123?

    <p>88 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can be inferred about cases that lie within three standard deviations of the mean?

    <p>The probability of selecting them is less than 0.0026. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What summarizes the selection probability related to cases clustered around the mean?

    <p>Probability decreases with distance from the mean. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the area under the normal curve indicate?

    <p>The probability distribution of continuous variables. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the area representing the probability for cases within one standard deviation from the mean?

    <p>0.6826 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the probability of selecting a case compare when it is very close to the mean versus far from the mean?

    <p>Close scores have a higher selection probability. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How many cases out of 10,000 would you expect to fall beyond three standard deviations from the mean?

    <p>2.6 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the significance of the Z score in determining probabilities?

    <p>It indicates the relationship between a score and the mean. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the highest possible value for a probability according to the normal curve?

    <p>1.00 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If you want to find the probability of drawing a specific card from a deck, how would you express this probability?

    <p>0.0192 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Over an infinite number of draws, how many times would you expect to draw a king of hearts out of 10,000 draws?

    <p>192 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the total area under the normal curve that corresponds to a Z score of +0.85?

    <p>80.23% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If a child scored 73, what percentage of children scored lower than this IQ score with a Z score of -1.35?

    <p>8.85% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does a probability value of 0.0192 indicate about the success of drawing a specific card?

    <p>It is unlikely to draw that card. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does a negative Z score indicate about a raw score in relation to the mean?

    <p>The raw score is below the mean. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is essential to determine the probability of an event in the context of a normal distribution?

    <p>The number of successes and events (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why might the probability of drawing the king of hearts be considered improbable?

    <p>There are 52 other cards in the deck. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the combined area below the mean represented by a Z score of -0.35?

    <p>63.68% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When finding the area above a child's IQ score of 108, what is the corresponding proportion from the Z table?

    <p>65.54% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can be concluded about the nature of probabilities defined as successes over a large number of events?

    <p>They will maintain a certain proportional relationship. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What percentage of area under the normal curve lies between +/- 2 standard deviations from the mean?

    <p>95.44% (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If the mean is 100, what is the raw score corresponding to a Z score of 1?

    <p>110 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does a Z score of 0 indicate in a normal distribution?

    <p>The score is equal to the mean. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which Z score corresponds to the area that encompasses approximately 95% of the total area under the normal curve?

    <p>1.96 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In a dataset of 1000 cases, how many cases would fall within +/- 2 standard deviations from the mean?

    <p>950 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the first calculation step when determining the raw score from a given percentile?

    <p>Subtract 50% from the percentile (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When given two scores on opposite sides of the mean, how is the area between the scores calculated?

    <p>Add the areas between each score and the mean (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the example provided, what is the calculated raw score for an IQ at the 98.5th percentile?

    <p>121.70 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What represents the proportion used in finding the Z score for the 98.5th percentile?

    <p>0.4850 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What signifies that 36.25% of the total area under the normal curve is between IQ scores of 93 and 112?

    <p>The sum of the individual areas from the mean to each score (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What would be the result when calculating the area on the same side of the mean for IQ scores of 113 and 121?

    <p>11.09% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement correctly describes the significance of percentiles in data analysis?

    <p>Percentiles indicate the positions of scores in relation to the total cases. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What must be done when interpreting the area under the normal curve for cases between two scores?

    <p>Combine the individual areas from the mean (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Flashcards

    Z scores

    Standard scores that represent the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean of a normal distribution.

    Standard Deviation

    A measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values.

    Normal Distribution

    A bell-shaped probability distribution where most data values cluster around the mean.

    Area Under the Curve

    The proportion of data points within a specific range of values (expressed as percentage).

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    1 standard deviation

    A distance from the mean that contains 68.26% of the area under the curve in a normal distribution.

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    Normal Curve

    A theoretical model in statistics that describes a specific frequency distribution. It's perfectly smooth, unimodal (one peak), and symmetrical.

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    Unimodal

    A distribution with a single peak, maximum or mode.

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    Symmetrical

    A distribution where both sides mirror each other. Left and right sides are the same.

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    Theoretical Model

    An idealized representation of a concept; not an exact replication of real-world observations.

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    Empirical Distribution

    A distribution made from real-world observations or data, not theory.

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    Frequency Distribution

    An arrangement of data that indicates how often various values occur in a data set.

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    Descriptive Statistics

    Summary measures used to describe data characteristics (e.g., measures of central tendency, dispersion).

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    Measures of Central Tendency

    Statistics that represent the typical or average value in a dataset (mean, median, mode).

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    Z-score calculation

    A method to transform raw scores into standardized scores (Z-scores) with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.

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    Z-score formula

    The formula used to calculate Z scores. It involves subtracting the mean from the individual score and then dividing by the standard deviation.

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    Standardized normal distribution

    A normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.

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    Raw score

    An original data point or measurement in its actual units.

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    Probability Distribution

    A table or graph that shows the probability of each possible outcome of an event.

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    Discrete Probability Distribution

    A probability distribution where the variable can only take on specific, separate values.

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    Continuous Probability Distribution

    A probability distribution where the variable can take on any value within a range.

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    Probability for Continuous Variables

    Probabilities are calculated for ranges of values under the normal curve, rather than for specific values.

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    Discrete Variable Example

    A variable that can only take on whole numbers, such as the number of siblings you have.

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    Continuous Variable Example

    A variable that can take on any value within a range, like the height of a person.

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    Probability for Discrete vs Continuous

    Calculating probability for discrete variables involves finding the likelihood of specific events. For continuous variables, probabilities are calculated for ranges of values.

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    Percentile

    A percentile represents the percentage of scores that fall below a certain value. For example, the 70th percentile means that 70% of the scores are below that value.

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    How to Find a Raw Score from a Percentile

    To find a raw score from a percentile, we first convert the percentile to a proportion, then find the corresponding Z-score using a Z-table. Finally, use the Z-score formula to calculate the raw score.

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    Finding Area Between Two Scores

    The area between two scores on the same side of the mean is calculated by finding the area between each score and the mean, and subtracting the smaller area from the larger one.

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    Area Between Two Scores on Opposite Sides

    To find the area between two scores on opposite sides of the mean, add the areas between each score and the mean.

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    Using the Normal Curve for Probability

    Understanding the area under the normal curve allows us to estimate probabilities of certain events happening.

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    Example: Finding Area Between 93 and 112 IQ Scores

    Using the Z-score formula, we find the Z-scores for 93 and 112. Then, using a Z-table, we find the area between each Z-score and the mean, and add them to find the total area between 93 and 112.

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    Example: Finding Area Between 113 and 121 IQ Scores

    We calculate the Z-scores for 113 and 121 using the Z-score formula, then find the areas between each Z-score and the mean. Subtract the smaller area from the larger area to find the total area between 113 and 121.

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    Practical Application: Estimating Probabilities

    We can use the normal curve to estimate probabilities of different scores occurring in a given population. For example, we can find the probability of a randomly selected individual having an IQ score above 120.

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    Probability of a Score Range

    The chance of randomly selecting a data point within a specific range of values in a continuous distribution (like a normal curve).

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    Z-score Conversion

    Transforming a raw score (like an IQ score) into a standardized Z-score to compare it to a standard normal distribution.

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    Probability Beyond the Mean

    The chance of selecting a value greater or less than the mean in a continuous distribution.

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    Infinite Trials

    The theoretical concept of repeating an experiment or measurement an infinite number of times to approach the true probability.

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    Data Clustering

    The tendency for most data points in a normal distribution to cluster around the mean.

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    Standard Deviation Significance

    A standard deviation from the mean defines a specific range within a normal distribution and carries a known probability.

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    Probability of Extreme Values

    The chance of selecting a data point very far from the mean, beyond multiple standard deviations.

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    Probability = Area (Under the Curve)

    The area under a normal curve representing a specific range of values corresponds to the probability of selecting a data point within that range.

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    Standard Normal Curve Table

    A table that provides probabilities for the standard normal distribution, based on Z-scores.

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    Probability Interpretation

    Understanding that probabilities in a continuous distribution represent the likelihood of selecting a certain value or range of values over many trials.

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    What is a Z-score?

    A Z-score represents how many standard deviations a data point is away from the mean of a distribution. It standardizes scores to the theoretical normal curve.

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    What does the area under the normal curve represent?

    The area under a normal curve represents the proportion of data points within a specific range of values. This area directly corresponds to the probability of finding a data point in that range.

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    What's special about the area within 1 standard deviation?

    The area within one standard deviation from the mean encompasses approximately 68.26% of the total area under the curve.

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    Why are Z-scores useful?

    Z-scores allow us to compare data points from different distributions, regardless of their original units. They make it possible to compare apples and oranges!

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    Why are standardized scores important?

    Standardized scores (Z-scores) simplify data analysis and comparison. They allow us to easily understand how a score relates to the overall distribution regardless of the original units, making it easier to draw comparisons and analyze the data.

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    Z Score and Area

    A Z score represents a specific point on the normal curve. The area under the curve between that point and the mean represents the proportion of data points between the score and the mean.

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    Positive vs. Negative Z Score

    A positive Z score indicates a value above the mean, while a negative Z score indicates a value below the mean.

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    Finding Area Below a Score

    To find the area below a positive Z score, add the area between the score and the mean to 50%. To find the area below a negative Z score, use the 'Area Beyond Z' value in the Z table.

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    Area Beyond a Positive Z Score

    To find the area above a positive Z score, use the 'Area Beyond Z' value in the Z table.

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    Finding Raw Score from Percentile

    To find the raw score, convert the percentile to a proportion, look up the corresponding Z-score in a table, and use the Z-score formula with the mean and standard deviation to calculate the raw score.

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    Area Between Two Scores (Opposite Sides)

    To find the area between scores on opposite sides of the mean, add the areas between each score and the mean.

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    Area Between Two Scores (Same Side)

    To find the area between scores on the same side of the mean, subtract the smaller area (closer to the mean) from the larger area.

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    Estimating Probabilities

    Using the area under the normal curve, we can approximate the chance of a specific data point occurring in a given population. For example, the probability of a randomly selected adult having an IQ score above 130.

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    Probability Formula

    The formula for calculating probability is:

    Probability (event) = Number of successful events / Total number of events

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    Probability Range

    Probabilities range from 0.00 (impossible) to 1.00 (certain). The higher the probability, the more likely the event is to occur.

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    Probability and the Normal Curve

    The normal curve can be used to estimate the probability of a randomly selected value falling within a certain range.

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    Probability Example

    The probability of drawing the King of Hearts from a deck of cards is 1/52 (or approximately 0.0192).

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    Inferring Probability from the Normal Curve

    We can estimate the probability of a specific value or range of values by looking at the area under the normal curve corresponding to that value or range.

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    What does a high probability mean?

    A high probability indicates that an event is very likely to occur. A probability close to 1.00 means the event is almost certain.

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    What does a low probability mean?

    A low probability indicates that an event is unlikely to occur. A probability close to 0.00 means the event is highly improbable.

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    Study Notes

    Quantitative Research Methods in Political Science

    • Lecture 4 focused on the Normal Curve and Z Scores.
    • Instructor: Michael E. Campbell
    • Course Number: PSCI 2702 (A)
    • Date: 09/26/2024

    Lecture Recap

    • Lecture 1: Covered the role of statistics in social sciences, use of systematic processes, difference between facts and values, characteristics of variables (discrete vs. continuous), and levels of measurement.
    • Lecture 2: Introduced causality (causal relationships), independent and dependent variables, conceptualization and operationalization, and instruments/instrumentation. Included discussion on systematic and random measurement error (reliability and validity).
    • Lecture 3: Recap of descriptive and univariate statistics. Discussed measures of central tendency (mode, median, mean). Covered measures of dispersion (e.g., IQR, variance, standard deviation). Also included frequency distribution tables and graphs/charts (pie, bar, histograms). All of this served as a foundation for the Normal Curve.

    The Normal Curve

    • A theoretical model in statistics.
    • Can be used to describe empirical distributions.
    • A perfectly smooth frequency polygon, unimodal (single mode/peak), and symmetrical (unskewed); mean, median, and mode are equivalent. (Healey, Donoghue, and Prus 2023, 126).
    • Shaped like a bell curve.
    • Tails extend infinitely.
    • Does not exist perfectly in nature. Empirical distributions will generally resemble this curve, but not match it perfectly.

    The Normal Curve Cont'd

    • Resembles the unskewed distribution from previous lecture.
    • Data in some empirical distributions are close to enough that we can treat them as Normal.

    The Normal Curve as a Tool

    • Used in descriptive statistics for statements about empirical distributions.
    • Useful for inferential statistics when generalizing from samples to populations.
    • Distances along the horizontal axis, when measured in standard deviations, always encompass the same proportion of the total area under the curve.
    • The distance between any point and mean cuts off the same proportion of the total area when measured in standard deviations.

    The Normal Curve Example

    • Data (IQ scores) for children and adults.
    • Distributions are symmetrical.
    • Each has a sample size of 1000.
    • Children: Mean = 100, Standard Deviation = 20
    • Adults: Mean = 100, Standard Deviation = 10

    The Normal Curve Example Cont'd

    • Larger data spread for children's IQ scores due to larger standard deviation.
    • Two scales: IQ units and standard deviations from mean.
    • No difference between these scales. Standard deviation units are a conversion.
    • One standard deviation above mean for children is 120, below mean is 80.

    The Normal Curve Example Cont'd: Adult IQ

    • Same logic applies to adult IQ scores
    • One standard deviation below the mean IQ for adults is 90, above is 110.

    Area Under the Normal Curve

    • When measured in standard deviations, the distances on the horizontal axis always encompass the same proportion of area under the curve.
    • +/-1 standard deviation = 68.26% of the area
    • +/-2 standard deviations = 95.44% of the area
    • +/-3 standard deviations = 99.72% of the area

    Z Scores (Standard Scores)

    • Z scores express scores after standardization to the theoretical normal curve.
    • Units are the standard deviation from mean
    • Original units can be anything (weight, time, IQ scores, etc.).
    • Z scores will always have a mean of 0 and standard deviations of 1

    Computing Z Scores

    • Equation to compute Z score: (individual score - sample mean) / sample standard deviation
    • Example using scores: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50. Need to calculate the mean then the standard deviaiton for these scores.

    Computing Z Scores Cont'd

    • Raw scores convert to Z scores, standardizing to mean of 0 and standard deviations of 1 for normal curve.
    • Example computation for the given scores.

    Positive and Negative Z Scores

    • Positive Z scores fall to the right of the mean.
    • Negative Z scores fall to the left of the mean. The absolute value of a Z-score indicates the distance from the mean in units of standard deviation.

    The Standard Normal Curve Table

    • A table that contains areas (probabilities) related to Z scores.
    • Found in most statistical textbooks.
    • Can be used to find the area between the mean and a given Z score; area beyond.
    • Area between Z and the mean or beyond a Z score.

    Finding Raw Scores

    • Percentile: a specific percentage of cases falling below a data point.
    • Using the normal curve, you can find raw scores given percentages of interest

    Finding Raw Score Example

    • Example using the 98.5th percentile of adult IQ scores.

    Finding the Area Between Two Scores on Opposite Sides of the Mean

    • Method for finding the area between two scores located on opposite sides of the mean.
    • Example using IQ scores 93 and 112.

    Finding the Area Between Scores on the Same Side of the Mean

    • Method for determining area between two similarly situated scores in relation to the mean.

    Using the Normal Curve to Estimate Probabilities

    • The Normal Curve can be used to estimate probabilities of events.
    • Probability: the likelihood of an event happening.

    Probabilities for Continuous Variables

    • Useful for figuring out the probabilities for continuous data, where we are looking at the ranges

    Probabilities for Continuous Variables Example

    • Example using the probability of randomly selecting a case from a normal distribution of children's IQ scores between 95 and 100.

    Probabilities for Continuous Variables Example #2

    • Example to determine the probability of randomly selecting a child with an IQ score less than 123.

    Probabilities at a Glance

    • High probability to select a case near the mean.
    • Low probability selecting a case far away from the mean.
    • The majority of cases cluster around the mean.

    Probabilities at a Glance Cont'd

    • Probability of selecting a case that falls beyond three standard deviations from the mean is very small.

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    This quiz covers fundamental concepts related to the normal distribution, including Z scores, percentages of area under the curve, and characteristics of the normal curve. Test your understanding of how these statistical concepts apply in real-world datasets. Perfect for students of statistics looking to reinforce their knowledge.

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