State Actors in the Horn of Africa

State Actors in the Horn of Africa: Somalia, Somaliland, Sudan & South Sudan

• Unit Objectives: Students will be able to elaborate on failed/fragile states, explain the decline of national power in Somalia and Somaliland, and discuss the causes of the decline of national power in Sudan and South Sudan.

Introduction

• National power is measured by the ability to influence others, leveraging tangible and potential resources.
• Control and effective resource mobilization are key to national power.
• States lacking control over territories and institutions are often categorized as failed or fragile.

Cont'd...

• Some Horn of Africa states are fragile or failed due to various factors.
• There's debate on defining fragile and failed states.
• Operational definitions are helpful for understanding the states' conditions.

Defining Fragile and Failed States

Fragile State

• A state at risk of failing but hasn't completely collapsed.
• Weak governance and institutions, with the potential for instability.
• Unable to reproduce conditions for its own existence.
• Can no longer perform basic security and development functions.
• Lacks effective control over territory and borders.
• Faces capacity limitations in security and development.
• Experiences failures in day-to-day government operations.
• Examples: Afghanistan and Haiti

Failed State

• A state unable to preserve peace and security with its own forces.

• Characterized by a complete breakdown of authority and governance.

• Marked by extreme instability and humanitarian crisis.

• Examples include Somalia in the 1990s, South Sudan in 2013, and Sudan in 2023.

• Failed states can't maintain peace and security, often experience UN peacekeeping missions, citizens facing range of shocks, loss of control, widespread violence, humanitarian crises, and a lack of legitimacy.

• Failing states are defined by inability to collect taxes, fill political posts, maintain infrastructure, control boundaries, and enforce laws.

Group Discussion Topics

• Similarities and differences between fragile and failed states (group discussion).
• Characteristic features of a fragile state.
• Are poorly performing states necessarily failed states? (discussion)

The Decline of National Power in Somalia and Somaliland (1990s)

• Resource utilization is crucial for national power, regardless of resource abundance.

• Government control over resources, actors, events, and outcomes is essential.

• Control over outcomes is a better approach to measuring power in modern international politics.

• Somalia's geostrategic importance increased during the Cold War, gaining international support.

• Somalia became a powerful state, due in part to this increased importance, but fell into civil war by the late 1980s.

• The government, led by Mohammed Siad Barre, weakened in the 1980s, and Somalia's significance waned.

• Armed resistance movements emerged, leading to the Somali Civil War.

• Non-violent political opposition also challenged Barre's regime.

• Civil war escalated, economic crisis intensified in 1990-91, Barre was ousted, leading to the collapse of the central government, and Somalia became a failed state.

• International status declined in the early 1990s.

• Somalia depended on international peacekeeping and aid, after becoming a failed state.

• Somaliland formed its administration in British Somaliland, but lacks international recognition because of weakened national power.

The Decline of National Power in Sudan and South Sudan (2010s)

• Protracted civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan have diminished their national power through the consumption of human resources and economic issues.
• The crisis dates back to the independence years of 1950s.
• Civil wars, involving the central Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army, have hindered development.
• Conflicts in 2023 between Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces led to further chaos.
• The result of these conflicts has been the death of two million, repeated famines, diseases, large numbers of national displacements and migration, destruction of economic sectors (especially agriculture), loss of domestic animals, closure of schools, child recruitment into the army, and allocation of budgets towards military and security.
• Failure to properly manage the state by governments in both countries after separation of Sudan and South Sudan lead to underestimation of their influence, and dragging both into failed states.
• Lastly, both nations are presently on the hands of UN missions and international community efforts in the aid/security divisions for both nations.

Classwork Questions

• Include a section on classwork questions from the provided text, these are focused on Somalia and Sudan. Questions cover governance, opposition, causes of civil war, armed resistance, geopolitical importance and international support.

This quiz explores the dynamics of state power in the Horn of Africa, focusing on Somalia, Somaliland, Sudan, and South Sudan. Students will analyze the concepts of fragile and failed states while examining the decline of national power in these regions. Understanding these concepts is essential for grasping the complexities of governance and state stability.