Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is indicated by decimal odds in relation to win probability?
What is indicated by decimal odds in relation to win probability?
In terms of betting odds, what does an outcome with a win probability over 0.5 indicate?
In terms of betting odds, what does an outcome with a win probability over 0.5 indicate?
What does the 'over round' adjustment help to achieve?
What does the 'over round' adjustment help to achieve?
Which league was mentioned as having poor predictability by bookmakers?
Which league was mentioned as having poor predictability by bookmakers?
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What does the created dummy variable signify when the win probability is greater than 0.5?
What does the created dummy variable signify when the win probability is greater than 0.5?
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What is the main aim of evaluating bookmaker odds?
What is the main aim of evaluating bookmaker odds?
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What does a dummy variable equal to 0 indicate regarding win probability?
What does a dummy variable equal to 0 indicate regarding win probability?
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What is the primary focus of the Briar score in evaluation?
What is the primary focus of the Briar score in evaluation?
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What percentage of the time were the betting odds correct based on the given information?
What percentage of the time were the betting odds correct based on the given information?
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If the bookmaker assigns a win probability greater than 0.6, how often did they get it right according to the analysis?
If the bookmaker assigns a win probability greater than 0.6, how often did they get it right according to the analysis?
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How does the accuracy of the bookmaker's odds change with the assigned probability?
How does the accuracy of the bookmaker's odds change with the assigned probability?
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What is indicated by the term 'high prob' in the context provided?
What is indicated by the term 'high prob' in the context provided?
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Why might the bookmaker's odds be less accurate in games with probabilities close to 50%?
Why might the bookmaker's odds be less accurate in games with probabilities close to 50%?
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What is the significance of the Brier Scores mentioned in the content?
What is the significance of the Brier Scores mentioned in the content?
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What might be expected from bookmakers when they provide odds close to 100%?
What might be expected from bookmakers when they provide odds close to 100%?
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What threshold was chosen to analyze the bookmaker's success rate?
What threshold was chosen to analyze the bookmaker's success rate?
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Study Notes
Bookmaker Odds Reliability
- Bookmakers' odds were found to be a fairly reliable indicator of outcomes in most leagues, but not consistently accurate in all.
- Indian Premier League cricket odds were a poor predictor.
- Evaluating bookmaker accuracy will be explored using the Brier score, beginning with NBA data (2018-2019 season).
Evaluating Reliability Using Win Probability
- Win probability is calculated by dividing 1 by the decimal odds.
- Probabilities are then scaled for the outcome (win/loss).
- Reliability is also assessed by whether the bookmakers made the outcome more or less likely. Odds above 0.5 suggest a correct prediction.
- The success rate of predicting the correct winner, based on odds exceeding 0.5, can indicate the reliability of predictions.
Success Rate Calculation
- A binary variable (1 for win probability > 0.5, 0 otherwise) is created to identify correct predictions.
- Actual outcomes are compared to predicted probabilities (1 if correct, 0 if not).
- The average success rate of predicting win outcomes based on odds calculations is analyzed.
- For the season analyzed, the success rate was approximately 67%.
High Probability Outcomes
- Analyzing outcomes where the win probability was above 60% (0.6).
- The success rate was ~75% for higher win probability estimates.
- This analysis demonstrates that the accuracy of predictions increased with higher assigned win probabilities by bookmakers.
- The calculation is sensitive to the chosen threshold and the closer the odds get to 50% the less accurate the predictions will be, and vice-versa.
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Description
Explore the reliability of bookmakers' odds in predicting sports outcomes, particularly focusing on the Indian Premier League and NBA data from the 2018-2019 season. Learn how win probability and Brier scores are used to gauge the accuracy of betting odds. This quiz delves into the methods of assessing the success rates of these predictions.
