Shifting Baseline Syndrome

• The magnitude, rate, and extent of human-caused changes to Earth's natural environment are difficult to grasp.

Shifting Baseline Syndrome (SBS) Defined

• SBS constitutes a gradual change in the accepted norms for the condition of the natural environment due to a lack of experience, memory, and/or knowledge of its past condition.

Consequences of SBS

• Increased tolerance for progressive environmental degradation.
• Altered perceptions of a desirable state of the natural environment.
• The establishment and use of inappropriate baselines for nature conservation, restoration, and management.

Daniel Pauly's Contribution

• Daniel Pauly elucidated the concept of SBS in his essay "Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries.”
• Fishers and marine scientists perceive faunal composition and stock sizes at the beginning of their careers as the unaffected baseline.
• This results in a gradual accommodation of the loss of fish species.

Terrestrial Example

• Changes in Japan's forest environment serve as a terrestrial example.
• Old-growth forests were predominant but replaced by modified forests over generations, establishing a new norm.

Environmental Generational Amnesia

• Psychology refers to SBS as "environmental generational amnesia".
• Each generation becomes accustomed to their environment's condition, so they do not recognize degradation occurring over time.

The Challenge of Declining Baselines

• Ongoing global and regional deterioration in the natural environment leads to a decline in baseline standards for environmental health.
• Conservation, restoration and environmental management face enormous challenges due to the shifting baseline.

Evidence of SBS

• There is an increasing body of empirical evidence that indicates the occurrence of SBS.
• Much of the evidence comes from fisheries science.

Example in the Raja Ampat Archipelago

• Younger fishers in Raja Ampat archipelago recalled less past abundance of wildlife.
• The fishers perceived a lower degree of population decline.

Research in the Gulf of California

• Younger fishers in the upper Gulf of California, Mexico highlighted about 1/4 of depleted fishing sites/species.
• This was reported by older fishers due to the decline of at least 60% over 50 years.

Tanzania study

• Younger fishermen in Tanga, Tanzania, were less likely to perceive that the current size of the fish catch has declined.
• The younger fishermen were also less likely to think that fish stocks had been overexploited.

Evidence of SBS in Other Contexts

• Younger residents in Yorkshire, UK are less aware of decreases in bird species over 20 years.
• In Bolivan Amazonia, younger respondents perceived reduced numbers of extinct tree/fish species.

Alaska study

• Younger people in Seward Peninsula, Alaska were less aware of changes in the availability of the local water resource.
• Indigenous communities in subarctic Alaska showed that older generations identified more overall climate change.

Major Causes of SBS

• Lack of data on the natural environment.
• Loss of interaction with the natural environment.
• Loss of familiarity with the natural environment.

Fundamental Driver of SBS

• Lack of relevant historical data on the natural environment.
• Time series data are relatively recent, often for regions with the greatest biodiversity/abundance.

Impact of Limited Data on Baselines

• Limited historical environmental data impedes inferring whether/to what extent long-term changes have occurred.
• People define baselines based on their knowledge/experiences, making it difficult to identify "correct" baselines.

Impact of Loss of Interaction

• People, particularly children, spend less time interacting with nature than previous generations.
• Direct interaction recognizes/stores the environmental condition.

Factors Leading to Extinction of Experience

• Loss of natural environments and limited opportunities to interact with nature in urban areas.
• The rise of alternative leisure activities reduce orientation for people to enage with nature.

Importance of Familiarity

• Familiarity with the natural environment help people see a connection.
• One measurement of this could be level of natural history, like identifying plant/animal species.

Consequences of SBS

• Increased societal tolerance for progressive environmental degradation (decline in wildlife, and increasing pollution).
• Altered expectations for a desirable state of the natural environment.
• Inappropriate targets for conservation, restoration and management programs set by policy makers.

Restoration Example

• The Dogger Bank in the North Sea has conservation targets based on current data. Historical records indicate that the bank has been subject to anthropogenic activities since 16th century. This may hinder developing suitable conservation/restoration targets.

Feedback Loops Accelerate SBS

• Tolerance for degradation diminishes motivation to alleviate further environmental harm.
• Misunderstanding of a healthy environment affects decision making regarding conservation/restoration.
• Improper baselines will not achieve the intended outcomes of conservation and restoration.

Strategic Recommendations to Prevent/Reverse SBS

• Restore the natural environment.
• Monitor and collect data.
• Reduce the extinction of experience.
• Education.

Restoring the Natural Environment

• Rewilding approach to show more historical baselines.
• Rewilding initiatives are also expanding in urban areas.

Monitoring and data collection

• Accumulating more environmental data may limit progressive SBS.
• Citizen science collects large-scale/long-term environmental data.

Preventing SBS by Reducing Extinction of Experience

• Promote positive interactions with natural environments.
• Studies have shown that participating increases condition awareness.