Problems of Sales Forecasting

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Questions and Answers

Which factor most significantly undermines the reliability of sales forecasts due to unpredictable consumer behavior?

  • The strict adherence of businesses to annual sales projections.
  • The detailed research conducted to predict consumer purchasing patterns.
  • The consistent demand for all types of products and services across different markets.
  • The constant and evolving nature of consumer preferences and market trends. (correct)

What is the primary limitation of using a one-year sales forecast for businesses involved in long-term projects?

  • Annual forecasts fail to account for the cyclical nature of consumer spending.
  • One-year forecasts are too detailed and complex for large-scale project planning.
  • Short-term forecasts cannot accommodate the extensive timeline and costs associated with projects like shipbuilding or hotel construction. (correct)
  • Businesses are unable to accurately predict market conditions beyond one year.

How did the rapid decline in the popularity of fidget spinners demonstrate a challenge in sales forecasting?

  • It highlighted that school bans always lead to decreased sales.
  • It demonstrated that consumer preferences are consistent over time.
  • It showed the difficulty in predicting the longevity of product fads and their impact on inventory management. (correct)
  • It reinforced the importance of toy shops stocking the latest trending items.

Which of the following scenarios would be MOST affected by the unpredictability of external events when creating a sales forecast?

<p>A tourism company estimating visitor numbers to a region prone to political instability. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company that sells luxury yachts is creating a sales forecast. Which factor would likely introduce the MOST uncertainty into their projections?

<p>Fluctuations in interest rates affecting large purchases and global economic stability. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Sales Forecast Accuracy

Sales forecasts are not guaranteed due to uncertain factors.

Dynamic Market Impact

Rapid changes in popularity can render sales forecasts inaccurate.

Sales Forecast Timeframe

A sales forecast is useful for businesses trading products or services in a one-year period.

Fidget Spinner

a toy that was very popular in April 2017, but by May 2017 most schools had banned them and sales were in decline

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For some businesses

A one-year forecast will not be useful or appropriate for multi-billion dollar contracts over a longer time period

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Study Notes

  • Sales forecasting can be difficult due to a multitude of factors.
  • A sales forecast does not guarantee the projected sales will be met.
  • There are many uncertain factors which may impact sales.
  • Tourism can be impacted by terrorism in certain countries.
  • Researching specific countries can show current tourism losses from terrorism.

Dynamic Markets

  • Fidget spinners were a must-have toy in April, 2017.
  • By May, 2017 most schools had banned them, driving sales into decline.
  • The craze or fad died out.
  • Toy shops find themselves overstocked, with the toy they can no longer sell.

Short Term Thinking

  • Sales forecasts are viable for businesses that produce and sell products or services in a one year period.
  • For some businesses a one year forecast will be inappropriate for longer term, multi-billion dollar contracts.
  • Specific examples of these businesses include ship building companies and hotels.

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