8 Questions
What are the three broad scenarios that Europe faces in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine?
Ukrainian victory, Russian victory, and a Korean-style stalemate
What is the likelihood of Ukraine expelling all Russian forces from its sovereign territory in the near future?
Unlikely
What is the potential risk of Russia regaining the initiative and ending the war on its terms?
Russia would emerge from the war strengthened
What is a Korean-style stalemate in the context of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine?
A situation where both sides reach a ceasefire along an unstable and unrecognized line of control, without formally ending their state of war
What is the need of the hour in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine according to the text?
To create space for a negotiated settlement to emerge
What should not be prematurely concluded after the Ukrainian liberation of Kherson?
That Putin has no red lines.
What would a second scenario where Russia regains the initiative and ends the war on its terms demonstrate?
That political aims on the European continent can be achieved through military means.
What unpleasant options would Western capitals face in the event of Russia regaining the initiative and ending the war on its terms?
Formalizing Ukraine's partition or inhabiting a Cold War-type draw, which may last for decades.
Study Notes
Scenarios of the Russia-Ukraine War
- Europe faces three broad scenarios in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine
- The scenarios are uncertain and influenced by various factors, including the war's progression and international responses
Ukraine Expelling Russian Forces
- The likelihood of Ukraine expelling all Russian forces from its sovereign territory in the near future is uncertain
- The outcome depends on various factors, including military strength, strategic decisions, and international support
Risk of Russia Regaining Initiative
- There is a potential risk of Russia regaining the initiative and ending the war on its terms
- This scenario would have significant implications for Ukraine, Europe, and the international community
Korean-Style Stalemate
- A Korean-style stalemate refers to a prolonged conflict with no clear victory, similar to the Korean War
- In this scenario, the war would persist with occasional outbreaks of violence, but no decisive outcome
Need of the Hour
- The need of the hour in the ongoing war is a sustained and coordinated international response to support Ukraine and deter Russian aggression
- This response should include diplomatic, economic, and military efforts to promote a peaceful resolution
Ukrainian Liberation of Kherson
- The Ukrainian liberation of Kherson should not be prematurely concluded as a decisive victory or an end to the war
- The conflict is ongoing, and Russia may still attempt to regain the initiative
Russia Regaining Initiative
- If Russia regains the initiative and ends the war on its terms, it would demonstrate the effectiveness of its military strategy and tactics
- This scenario would also reveal the limitations of international efforts to support Ukraine and deter Russian aggression
Unpleasant Options for Western Capitals
- If Russia regains the initiative, Western capitals would face unpleasant options, including appeasement, escalation, or a prolonged and costly conflict
- These options would have significant implications for European and global security
Test your knowledge on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine with this quiz. Explore the potential scenarios for the future of the conflict and the risks they pose to European security. Learn about the need for a negotiated settlement and the current conditions for one to emerge. Challenge your understanding of this complex issue and stay informed on the latest developments.
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