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Questions and Answers
What happens to estimates of risk and benefit when people rate them under time pressure?
What happens to estimates of risk and benefit when people rate them under time pressure?
What is 'associative coherence'?
What is 'associative coherence'?
What happened to people's perceptions of technology risks after reading brief passages with arguments in favor of the technology?
What happened to people's perceptions of technology risks after reading brief passages with arguments in favor of the technology?
Who said that 'the emotional tail wags the rational dog'?
Who said that 'the emotional tail wags the rational dog'?
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What is the main difference between how experts and the public perceive risks?
What is the main difference between how experts and the public perceive risks?
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What does Paul Slovic argue about the concept of risk?
What does Paul Slovic argue about the concept of risk?
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What is the implication of the affect heuristic for decision-making?
What is the implication of the affect heuristic for decision-making?
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What is the main finding of Slovic's research on human judgment of risk?
What is the main finding of Slovic's research on human judgment of risk?
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What happens when people are told only that the risks of a technology are mild?
What happens when people are told only that the risks of a technology are mild?
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What is the main argument of Slovic's research on the relationship between experts and the public?
What is the main argument of Slovic's research on the relationship between experts and the public?
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What is the main point of Slovic's claim about risk?
What is the main point of Slovic's claim about risk?
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What is the view of Cass Sunstein on risk regulation?
What is the view of Cass Sunstein on risk regulation?
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What is the term coined by Sunstein and Kuran to describe the mechanism through which biases flow into policy?
What is the term coined by Sunstein and Kuran to describe the mechanism through which biases flow into policy?
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What is the role of 'availability entrepreneurs' in an availability cascade?
What is the role of 'availability entrepreneurs' in an availability cascade?
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What is the main reason for people's warped estimates of causes of death?
What is the main reason for people's warped estimates of causes of death?
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What is the attribute that Cass Sunstein shares with other leaders of his profession?
What is the attribute that Cass Sunstein shares with other leaders of his profession?
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What is the term for the way people make judgments and decisions based on their emotions?
What is the term for the way people make judgments and decisions based on their emotions?
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What is the main point of disagreement between Slovic and Sunstein?
What is the main point of disagreement between Slovic and Sunstein?
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According to the study, what is the ratio of deaths caused by strokes to deaths caused by accidents?
According to the study, what is the ratio of deaths caused by strokes to deaths caused by accidents?
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What is the term used to describe the way people judge the importance of an idea?
What is the term used to describe the way people judge the importance of an idea?
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What is the name of the neuroscientist who proposed that emotional evaluations play a central role in guiding decision making?
What is the name of the neuroscientist who proposed that emotional evaluations play a central role in guiding decision making?
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What is the view of Sunstein on the existing system of regulation in the United States?
What is the view of Sunstein on the existing system of regulation in the United States?
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What is the term for the way people form opinions and make choices based on their emotions and tendency to approach or avoid?
What is the term for the way people form opinions and make choices based on their emotions and tendency to approach or avoid?
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What is the goal of risk regulation according to Sunstein?
What is the goal of risk regulation according to Sunstein?
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What is the consequence of an availability cascade?
What is the consequence of an availability cascade?
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What is the reason why people with brain damage may have an impaired ability to make good decisions?
What is the reason why people with brain damage may have an impaired ability to make good decisions?
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What is the correlation between the level of benefit and the level of risk that people attribute to technologies?
What is the correlation between the level of benefit and the level of risk that people attribute to technologies?
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What is the result of the affect heuristic on people's opinions about technologies?
What is the result of the affect heuristic on people's opinions about technologies?
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What is the term for the way people's expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages they receive?
What is the term for the way people's expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages they receive?
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What is the main finding of the study on people's estimates of causes of death?
What is the main finding of the study on people's estimates of causes of death?
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What is the concept referred to as when people are not adequately considering the probability of harm?
What is the concept referred to as when people are not adequately considering the probability of harm?
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Who coined the phrase 'probability neglect'?
Who coined the phrase 'probability neglect'?
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What is the main factor that contributes to the gross exaggeration of minor threats like terrorism?
What is the main factor that contributes to the gross exaggeration of minor threats like terrorism?
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What is the main concern of Cass Sunstein regarding the allocation of public resources?
What is the main concern of Cass Sunstein regarding the allocation of public resources?
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What is the main concern of Paul Slovic regarding the allocation of public resources?
What is the main concern of Paul Slovic regarding the allocation of public resources?
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What is the potential long-term benefit of availability cascades?
What is the potential long-term benefit of availability cascades?
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What is the main characteristic of democracy, according to the text?
What is the main characteristic of democracy, according to the text?
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Why is it difficult to reason oneself into a state of complete calm, according to the text?
Why is it difficult to reason oneself into a state of complete calm, according to the text?
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What is the role of psychology in the design of risk policies, according to the text?
What is the role of psychology in the design of risk policies, according to the text?
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What is the main consequence of the influence of availability cascades on public policy?
What is the main consequence of the influence of availability cascades on public policy?
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What was Howard Kunreuther's career focused on?
What was Howard Kunreuther's career focused on?
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What happens to the concern and diligence of Californians after an earthquake?
What happens to the concern and diligence of Californians after an earthquake?
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Why do individuals and governments design protective actions to be adequate to the worst disaster actually experienced?
Why do individuals and governments design protective actions to be adequate to the worst disaster actually experienced?
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What was the focus of the groundbreaking research carried out by Paul Slovic and his collaborators?
What was the focus of the groundbreaking research carried out by Paul Slovic and his collaborators?
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What did Paul Slovic and his collaborators ask participants in their survey to consider?
What did Paul Slovic and his collaborators ask participants in their survey to consider?
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What assumption do societies make when preparing for floods?
What assumption do societies make when preparing for floods?
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What happens to the concern of victims and near victims of disasters over time?
What happens to the concern of victims and near victims of disasters over time?
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What is a characteristic of the cycles of disaster, concern, and growing complacency?
What is a characteristic of the cycles of disaster, concern, and growing complacency?
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What is the result of the availability cascade on public perception?
What is the result of the availability cascade on public perception?
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What is the main issue with the way the public perceives risks?
What is the main issue with the way the public perceives risks?
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What happened to the residents of Love Canal in 1979?
What happened to the residents of Love Canal in 1979?
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What is the name of the legislation that mandated the cleanup of toxic waste sites?
What is the name of the legislation that mandated the cleanup of toxic waste sites?
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What is the main limitation of the human mind when dealing with small risks?
What is the main limitation of the human mind when dealing with small risks?
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What is the role of the media in the availability cascade?
What is the role of the media in the availability cascade?
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What was the outcome of the research on the actual damage to health at Love Canal?
What was the outcome of the research on the actual damage to health at Love Canal?
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What was the consequence of the Alar incident on public health?
What was the consequence of the Alar incident on public health?
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What is the term used to describe the phenomenon of the availability cascade?
What is the term used to describe the phenomenon of the availability cascade?
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Study Notes
Availability and Risk
- The concept of availability is relevant to the study of risk, as people's perception of risk is influenced by their memories of past events.
- After a disaster, people are more likely to take protective actions, but as time passes, memories of the disaster fade, and so does their concern and diligence.
- This is evident in the pattern of insurance purchase and protective action after disasters, where people tend to prepare for the worst-case scenario based on their past experiences.
Availability Biases
- Studies have shown that people's perception of risk is influenced by media coverage, with unusual events receiving more attention and being perceived as more frequent than they actually are.
- The ease with which ideas of various risks come to mind and the emotional reactions to these risks are inextricably linked.
- Frightening thoughts and images occur to us with particular ease, and thoughts of danger that are fluent and vivid exacerbate fear.
The Affect Heuristic
- The affect heuristic is an instance of substitution, where people make judgments and decisions based on their emotions (e.g., "Do I like it?" or "Do I hate it?").
- This heuristic is an example of how people form opinions and make choices that directly express their feelings, often without knowing they are doing so.
- The affect heuristic simplifies our lives by creating a world that is much tidier than reality, where good technologies have few costs and bad technologies have no benefits.
Experts vs. the Public
- Experts show many of the same biases as the rest of us, but in attenuated form.
- Experts and the public often have different views on risk, with experts measuring risk by the number of lives lost, while the public draws finer distinctions (e.g., "good deaths" vs. "bad deaths").
- Paul Slovic argues that the public has a richer conception of risks than experts do, and that experts should respect the insights and intelligence of the public.
Objective Risk
- Slovic challenges the idea that risk is objective, arguing that "risk" does not exist independently of our minds and culture.
- He suggests that the evaluation of risk depends on the choice of measure, and that the choice may be guided by a preference for one outcome or another.
- Defining risk is thus an exercise in power.
Availability Cascades
- Availability cascades are self-sustaining chains of events, where media reports of a minor event lead to public panic and large-scale government action.
- The cycle is often sped along by "availability entrepreneurs" who work to ensure a continuous flow of worrying news.
- Examples of availability cascades include the Love Canal affair and the Alar scare.
Probability Neglect
- The amount of concern is not adequately sensitive to the probability of harm.
- People tend to imagine the worst-case scenario and ignore the probability of the event occurring.
- This pattern is known as probability neglect.
Terrorism and Availability Cascades
- Terrorism is a significant example of the art of inducing availability cascades.
- The repeated exposure to gruesome images and media coverage causes people to be on edge, even though the actual number of casualties is small relative to other causes of death.
- Terrorism speaks directly to System 1, making it difficult to reason oneself into a state of complete calm.
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Description
This quiz assesses your understanding of risk management and insurance concepts, including the idea of availability and its relevance to disaster response and insurance purchase patterns.
