Residual Plots

-0.85

La Nina conditions

less warm water than normal

Climate indices provide valuable information for predicting weather patterns and identifying El Nino or La Nina conditions.

Theoretical modelling involves developing mathematical equations or models based on fundamental principles, while statistical modelling involves analyzing data and making predictions based on statistical relationships.

AI has the potential to enhance modelling capabilities by using advanced algorithms and machine learning techniques to analyze large amounts of data and identify complex patterns and relationships.

Descriptive modelling involves identifying patterns in data to gain insight into a system, while process-based modelling involves developing models based on understanding the mechanisms and processes of a system.

Climate indices, such as the MEI, SOI, and MVE, are used to measure climate patterns and investigate their relationship with variables, such as agriculture.

Plotting residuals versus fitted values helps to check for any patterns or structures in the relationship between two variables.

The two forms of modelling introduced in SC1102 are theoretical modelling and statistical (descriptive) modelling.

Process-based theoretical models are still superior in many cases compared to AI models because they provide understanding of the underlying processes, which is necessary for interpreting and predicting complex systems.

Researchers found a moderately strong correlation between a positive MEI in the following year and a decrease in the number of breeding pairs of sooty terns.

The purpose of using residuals in statistical modeling is to assess the goodness of fit of the model. A lack of pattern or structure in the residual plot indicates a good choice of model.

The four indices introduced in the lecture are sea surface temperature anomaly, Southern oscillation index, warm water volume anomaly, and multivariate ENSO index (MEI). Sea surface temperature anomaly measures the difference between the sea surface temperature at a particular time compared to the average. Southern oscillation index measures the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. Warm water volume anomaly measures the amount of warm water in a rectangular area above the 20 degree Celsius isotherm. MEI includes sea level pressures, surface winds, temperatures, and cloudiness and relates to El Nino-like or La Nina-like conditions.

Theoretical modeling involves attaching equations to a system, while descriptive modeling looks for patterns in data. Theoretical modeling is process-based and can be validated using data, while descriptive modeling is data-driven and focuses on finding patterns in the data. Both approaches are used together to inform each other.