Real Exchange Rate & Purchasing Power Parity

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Questions and Answers

According to the definition provided, how is the real exchange rate ($q_{D/F}$) calculated?

$q_{D/F} = \frac{E_{D/F}P_F}{P_D}$ where $E_{D/F}$ is the nominal exchange rate, $P_F$ is the price of the foreign consumption basket, and $P_D$ is the price of the domestic consumption basket.

Explain how an increase in the money supply affects the real exchange rate in the long run. Why does this occur?

An increase in the money supply has no effect on the real exchange rate in the long run. This is because the increase in money supply leads to proportional increases in domestic prices and the nominal exchange rate, offsetting each other in the real exchange rate calculation.

List the two main factors that determine the real exchange rate.

The real exchange rate is determined by the relative supply of foreign and domestic goods in the world economy, and the relative demand for foreign and domestic goods in the world economy.

Explain how an increase in the relative supply of domestic goods affects the real exchange rate ($q_{D/F}$).

<p>An increase in the relative supply of domestic goods leads to an increase in $q_{D/F}$, meaning a real depreciation of the domestic currency.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain the relationship between PPP and the real exchange rate. When is the real exchange rate equal to 1 according to PPP?

<p>According to PPP, the real exchange rate is always equal to 1. This implies that one domestic consumption basket is worth exactly one foreign consumption basket.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is the real exchange rate theory considered a generalization or extension of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)?

<p>The real exchange rate theory is a generalization of PPP because it relaxes the assumption that the relative price of domestic and foreign consumption baskets is constant and equal to 1, allowing it to take on any value.</p> Signup and view all the answers

List three simplifying assumptions made by the PPP model that the real exchange rate theory relaxes.

<p>The PPP model assumes that all goods are traded, consumption bundles are the same across countries, and shipping is costless. The real exchange rate theory relaxes these assumptions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain how an increase in the relative demand for domestic goods impacts the real exchange rate ($q_{D/F}$).

<p>An increase in the relative demand for domestic goods leads to a decrease in $q_{D/F}$, signifying a real appreciation of the domestic currency.</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the information provided, what does it mean if the real exchange rate ($q_{D/F}$) is not equal to 1?

<p>If the real exchange rate ($q_{D/F}$) is not equal to 1, it indicates that the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equation is not satisfied.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the effect of a one-time increase in the domestic money supply on the nominal exchange rate ($E_{D/F}$) according to the RER model presented?

<p>A one-time increase in the domestic money supply leads to a proportional increase in the nominal exchange rate ($E_{D/F}$).</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a country experiences an increase in the growth rate of its money supply ($π^e_D$), how does this immediately impact the nominal interest rate ($R_D$)?

<p>The nominal interest rate ($R_D$) jumps upwards immediately after the announcement of an increase in the growth rate of money supply.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Following an increase in the money growth rate, what happens to the rate at which the domestic currency depreciates?

<p>After the announcement, the rate at which the domestic currency depreciates increases to reflect the higher growth rate of money.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain real interest rate parity and how it relates to the expected depreciation of domestic currency.

<p>Real interest rate parity states that differences in expected real interest rates between two countries are equal to the expected real depreciation of the domestic currency.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does an increase in domestic output ($Y_D$) affect the domestic price level ($P_D$), assuming the money supply and interest rate are unchanged?

<p>An increase in domestic output ($Y_D$) leads to a decrease in the domestic price level ($P_D$).</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain the impact of long-run domestic output being determined solely by the endowment of factors in the domestic economy.

<p>The long-run domestic output being determined solely by the endowment of factors means it is independent of the real exchange rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain the conditions for a country to be in equilibrium according to the Real Exchange Rate (RER) model.

<p>For a country to be in equilibrium, the money market, foreign exchange rate market, and output market must all be in equilibrium.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Differentiate between nominal and real values in the context of economics, particularly in reference to exchange rates.

<p>Nominal values are measured in units of currency, while real values are measured in units of a consumption bundle.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Describe how the relative demand curve is sloped and what it measures in the context of real exchange rate determination.

<p>The relative demand curve is upward sloping and measures the relative demand for domestic and foreign goods. It slopes upward because, as domestic goods become cheaper, the demand for them increases.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which markets are included in the Real Exchange Rate (RER) Model?

<p>The Real Exchange Rate (RER) Model is based on three markets: money market, foreign exchange rate market, and output market.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario where there's an improvement in the educational system that leads to increased productivity. What ambiguities arise in the overall effect on the nominal exchange rate?

<p>The nominal exchange rate's overall direction is unclear. The output market's push could lead to downward pressure on the nominal exchange rate, whereas equilibrium adjustments could push it upward. The overall direction will depend on which effect is greater.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Real Exchange Rate

The price of a foreign consumption basket expressed in domestic currency, relative to the price of a domestic consumption basket.

E(D/F)

The nominal exchange rate between domestic and foreign currency.

P(D) and P(F)

The prices of domestic and foreign consumption baskets, respectively.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

PPP suggests the exchange rate should equalize the price of a basket of goods between countries.

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PPP Theory Assumption

The theory that the relative price of domestic and foreign consumption baskets is constant and always equal to 1.

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Real Exchange Rate Theory

Real exchange rate theory allows the relative price of consumption baskets to vary.

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Flexibility of RER

Theory is more flexible and explains nominal exchange rate movements without relative price level changes.

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PPP Model Assumptions

All goods are traded, consumption bundles are the same across countries and shipping is costless.

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Monetary Policy

Monetary changes do not affect the real exchange rate.

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Real Exchange Rate Factors

The relative supply and demand for foreign and domestic goods in the world economy.

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Relative Demand Curve

The relative demand curve measures demand for domestic and foreign goods and slopes upwards.

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Relative Supply Curve

The supply of domestic goods in the long run at YD while the supply of foreign goods is fixed in the long run at YF.

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Increased Demand for Domestic Goods

Shifts the RD curve to the right and appreciates the real exchange rate.

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Increase in Domestic Output

Leads to a real depreciation of domestic currency and pushes the nominal exchange rate down.

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Real Interest Rate Parity

A no-arbitrage condition in terms of consumption baskets.

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Change in Money Growth

Indicates an increase in the future expected inflation and translates into an increase in the higher interest rate today.

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Study Notes

Definition of Real Exchange Rate

  • The real exchange rate (qD/F) is the price of a foreign consumption basket in terms of domestic currency, relative to the price of a domestic consumption basket.
  • qD/F = (ED/F * PF) / PD, where ED/F is the nominal exchange rate, PD is the price of the domestic basket, and PF is the price of the foreign basket.
  • The real exchange rate represents the rate at which one can exchange a foreign consumption basket for a domestic one.
  • Owning one foreign consumption basket is equivalent to owning (ED/F * PF) / PD domestic consumption baskets.
  • If the real exchange rate is 1, one domestic consumption basket can be exchanged for one foreign consumption basket.

Real Exchange Rate as a Generalization of PPP

  • PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) suggests ED/F = PD / PF.
  • Under PPP, the real exchange rate is always 1, meaning one domestic consumption basket is always worth one foreign consumption basket.
  • The real exchange rate allows for any value, not just 1
  • Any theory allowing the real exchange rate to move is an extension of PPP.
  • PPP assumes the relative price of domestic and foreign consumption baskets is constant and equal to 1.
  • Theory of real exchange rate relaxes both assumptions.
  • Real exchange rate theory is more flexible and explains movements in nominal exchange rates without changes in relative price levels.

Economics Behind the Real Exchange Rate (RER) Concept

  • RER theory captures economic forces ignored by PPP theory.
  • PPP theory assumes: all goods are traded, consumption bundles are the same across countries, and shipping is costless.
  • Relaxing these assumptions implies (ED/F * PF) / PD ≠ 1
  • The real exchange rate theory relaxes these unrealistic assumptions.
  • Nominal exchange rate is measured in currency units, while the real exchange rate is measured in units of consumption bundles.

Exchange Rate: Determination

  • Purely monetary changes do not affect the real exchange rate.
  • Identical increases in ED/F and PD leave qD/F unchanged.
  • An increase in money supply in the long run translates to a proportional increase in all prices but has no effect on domestic long-run interest rate RD or domestic long-run output.
  • The real exchange rate is independent of changes in monetary policy.
  • The real exchange rate is determined by: the relative supply of foreign and domestic goods and the relative demand for foreign and domestic goods.
  • "Relative" refers to comparing the supply/demand of domestic goods to that of foreign goods.
  • The real exchange rate is the price determined by the supply and demand in the relevant market.
  • qD/F is a relative price, and what matters are "relative supply" and "relative demand".

Graphical Analysis

  • The determination of the real exchange rate is depicted graphically, with the relative supply/demand for domestic goods on the horizontal axis and the real exchange rate on the vertical axis.
  • The RS curve denotes relative supply, and the RD curve denotes relative demand.
  • The relative supply curve is vertical because long-run domestic output (YD) and foreign output (YF) are fixed
  • YD/YF is independent of qD/F.
  • The relative demand curve measures the relative demand for domestic and foreign goods and is upward sloping.
  • An increase in qD/F represents a fall in the price of domestic goods relative to foreign goods, increasing the relative demand for domestic goods.
  • The real exchange rate is affected by shocks to relative output (relative supply shocks) and shocks to relative demand (relative demand shocks).

Real Exchange Rate Model

  • The long-run model incorporating the real exchange rate is based on three markets: money market, foreign exchange (FX) market, and output market.
  • A given economy is in equilibrium only if all these markets clear.
    • For the money market: MD/PD = L(YD, RD)
    • For the output market: RS(qD/F) = RD(qD/F)
    • For the FX market: ED/F = qD/F * (PD/PF)
  • Uncovered interest rate parity is satisfied to prevent arbitrage opportunities in the FX market: RD = RF + (EeD/F - ED/F) / ED/F

Real Interest Rate Parity

  • Real interest rate parity is a no-arbitrage condition in terms of consumption baskets and ensures one cannot make profits by investing in a specific consumption basket.
  • rD = rF + (qeD/F - qD/F) / qD/F, where rD is the expected domestic real interest rate, rF is the expected foreign real interest rate, and (qeD/F - qD/F) / qD/F is the expected real depreciation of domestic currency.

Analysis of Monetary Shocks

  • One-Time Increase in Money Supply:
    • Leads to a proportional increase in the domestic price level (PD) and the exchange rate (ED/F).
    • This outcome aligns with predictions from the PPP model.
  • Increase in the Growth Rate of Money:
    • The domestic central bank decides to increase the rate of money growth from π♭ to πο.
    • Output market: qD/F remains unchanged.
    • Money market: An increase in the RD increases domestic price level.
    • Following the change, the growth rate of prices increases from π♭ to πξ.
    • FX market: There is an upward jump in ED/F.
  • Immediately after the announcement, RD, PD, and ED/F jump upwards. Afterwards, RD remains constant, while ED/F and PD grow at a higher rate than before.

Analysis of Shocks to Output Market

  • A sudden increase in the relative demand for domestic goods shifts the RD curve to the right, causing the real exchange rate (qD/F) to depreciate.
  • The domestic price level (PD) remains constant, and the nominal exchange rate (ED/F) decreases, leading to domestic currency appreciation.
  • An increase in the supply of domestic output shifts the RS curve to the right, leading to real depreciation of domestic currency.
  • Equilibrium adjustments in the output market push the nominal exchange rate down, while adjustments in the money market push it up.
  • The overall effect on the nominal exchange rate depends on which effect is stronger.

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