Probability: Axiomatic Approach and Theorems

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Questions and Answers

A researcher is analyzing the probability of specific genes being expressed in a group of cells. What fundamental concept describes the set of all possible gene expression outcomes?

  • Random experiment
  • Sample space (correct)
  • Event space
  • Trial set

Which type of events cannot occur at the same time?

  • Mutually exclusive events (correct)
  • Independent events
  • Exhaustive events
  • Equally likely events

What is the primary difference between the classical and empirical approaches to probability?

  • Classical probability requires complex mathematical models, while empirical probability uses simple counting methods.
  • Classical probability relies on observation, while empirical probability is based on theoretical calculations.
  • Classical probability is subjective, while empirical probability is objective.
  • Classical probability relies on equally likely outcomes, while empirical probability is based on observed data. (correct)

In probability theory, what does the axiomatic approach primarily provide?

<p>A theoretical foundation for probability rules and theorems. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random without replacement. What concept is essential for calculating the probability of drawing a red ball followed by a blue ball?

<p>Conditional probability (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A software company tests two different features independently. Feature A has a 95% chance of working, and feature B has a 90% chance. Assuming their performance is independent, what theorem helps to calculate the probability that both features work correctly in a system?

<p>Multiplication theorem (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If two events are considered independent, what does this imply about their probabilities?

<p>The occurrence of one event has no impact on the probability of the other. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a medical diagnosis scenario, what is Bayes' theorem primarily used for?

<p>Calculating the probability of a disease given the presence of symptoms. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of 'pairwise independence' compared to 'mutual independence' for a set of events?

<p>Mutual independence is implied by pairwise independence but not vice versa. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following scenarios best illustrates a 'trial' in the context of probability?

<p>Each individual coin flip in a series. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary purpose of Boole's inequality in probability theory?

<p>To provide an upper bound on the probability of the union of events. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of probability, what distinguishes 'exhaustive events' from other types of events?

<p>Exhaustive events cover the entire sample space. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A geneticist is studying the inheritance of two genes. Gene A is inherited in 80% of offspring, and Gene B is inherited in 60% of offspring. If these genes are inherited independently, what approach could be used to determine the chance they are both inherited?

<p>Using the multiplication theorem of probability (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a manufacturing process, a machine produces items, and each item has a certain probability of being defective. What probabilistic concept is applied when assessing whether the defect rate on one machine affects the defect rate on another machine?

<p>Conditional probability (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A teacher wants to predict the probability of a student passing both a math and science test. What probabilistic approach is appropriate if the teacher believes high performance in math increases the chance of high performance in science?

<p>Multiplication theorem considering conditional probability (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When is the addition theorem of probability most applicable?

<p>When calculating the probability of at least one of several events occurring. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of random experiments, what is the significance of defining a 'sample space'?

<p>It provides all possible outcomes of the experiment. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a clinical trial, researchers want to determine the probability that a new drug is effective, given some observed side effects. What tool would they use?

<p>Bayes' theorem (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a limitation of the classical approach to probability?

<p>It assumes all outcomes are equally likely, which is not always the case. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If events A and B are mutually exclusive, what does this imply about $P(A \cap B)$ (the probability of both A and B occurring)?

<p>$P(A \cap B) = 0$ (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A survey finds that 60% of people like coffee, 40% like tea, and 20% like both. What theorem do we use to determine the probability that a person likes either coffee or tea?

<p>Addition Theorem (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What condition must be met to directly apply the simplified form of the multiplication theorem $P(A \cap B) = P(A) * P(B)$

<p>Events A and B must be independent. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the empirical approach to probability differ from the theoretical approach in determining the likelihood of an event?

<p>The empirical approach uses observed frequencies from experiments or real-world data. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is the sample space a fundamental concept in probability?

<p>It precisely defines all potential results in an experiment. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the key distinction between 'pairwise independence' and 'mutual independence' of events?

<p>Pairwise independence means that every pair of events is independent, but it doesn't guarantee the independence of larger groups of events, which is required for mutual independence. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'event' represent in basic probability theory?

<p>A specific outcome or set of outcomes from a random experiment. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

With regards to independence, how does mutual independence differ from pairwise independence?

<p>Pairwise independence requires every pair of events to be independent, which does not guarantee the independence of larger groups of events. Mutual independence guarantees all groups are independent. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do you describe the difference between mutually exclusive events and independent events?

<p>Exclusive events can't occur at the same time, while independent events’ probabilities don't affect each other. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A new medicine is tested where it has a chance to create side effects. Given observed side effects, what technique will the researchers use to check the medicine's effectiveness?

<p>Bayes' theorem. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why do most real-world probabilistic problems utilize the empirical approach rather than classical?

<p>Real-world can't rely on equally likely events like classical, empirical relies on real data. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

To compute the likelihood of the union of events, what does Boole's inequality provide?

<p>An upper likelihood. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What’s the primary constraint when determining the probability of events using the classical method?

<p>All events must be assumed equally likely. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A team has an 80% chance to get a deal A and a 70% chance to get a deal B. Assuming they are independent, how do you find the chance that they get deal A and deal B?

<p>Multiplication theorem. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When do you use the multiplication theorem considering conditional probability?

<p>When the chance of one depends on previous events. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What makes exhaustive events unique?

<p>They cover the whole event space. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do we describe 'mutually exclusive events?'

<p>Events that can't happen at the same time. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

What is a trial?

Procedure with well-defined outcomes.

What are events?

A set of outcomes from a random experiment.

What is a random experiment?

Experiment where the outcome is uncertain.

What is a sample space?

Set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.

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What is Classical Probability?

Probability based on prior knowledge or assumptions.

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What is Empirical Probability?

Probability based on observed data or experiments.

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What are Exhaustive events?

Events that cover all possible outcomes.

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What are Mutually Exclusive Events?

Events that cannot occur at the same time.

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What are Equally Likely Events?

Events with the same chance of occurring.

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What are Independent Events?

Events whose outcomes do not affect each other.

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What is Axiomatic Probability?

Probability defined by a set of axioms.

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What is the addition theorem?

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

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What is Conditional Probability?

Probability of event A given event B has occurred.

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What is the Multiplication Theorem?

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A)

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What is Pairwise Independence?

Each pair of events is independent.

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What is Mutual Independence?

All events are independent of each other.

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What is Bayes' Theorem?

Describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions.

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What is Boole's Inequality?

States that the probability of the union of n events is less than or equal to the sum of their probabilities.

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Study Notes

  • Probability involves trials, events, and random experiments within a sample space.
  • Probability can be approached classically or empirically, each with its limitations.
  • Events can be exhaustive, mutually exclusive, equally likely, or independent.
  • The axiomatic approach is a way to define probability.
  • There are basic theorems on probability using the axiomatic approach.
  • The addition theorem helps calculate probability for n-events.
  • Boole's inequality is also relevant in probability calculations.

Conditional Probability

  • Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred.
  • The multiplication theorem is used for calculating probability for n-events.
  • This includes the independence of events, pairwise independence, and mutual independence.
  • Bayes' theorem is also covered with simple applications.

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