Presidential Power & Political Ambition

• Stakeholders, including bureaucrats, Congress, 3 million government workers, other heads of state, and the public, have expectations of the President.
• Presidential expectations are very high, but the Constitution divides authority among the three branches, requiring institutions to share power.
• Political parties often lack cohesion and are divided into factions, making it difficult for the President to meet expectations.

Political Ambition

• Individual ambition impacts political parties and politics.
• It is important to have "striking and great" individuals in office.
• Political opportunities are structured like a ladder that must be climbed.
• Discrete ambition involves serving, retiring, and achieving one thing.
• Static ambition involves running for office and holding it for a long time to gain power in the institution.
• Progressive ambition is the desire to run for a higher office and constantly aiming for a higher position.

Black's Formal Ambition Theory: U = (PB) - C

• U (Utility of holding office) refers to the utility of an office for the individual prior to election.
• P (Probability) is the estimate of the probability that they can obtain said office.
• B (Benefit) is the benefit that the individual would receive from getting that office.
• C (Cost) is the cost required during a campaign to obtain an office.
• Governors are seen as more likely to become president due to the executive experience gained in their office, while the Senate is seen as the "presidential incubator."

Party Nominations

• Viability is the determination of if a candidate can run for president.
• Electability is the determination of if a candidate can win.

The Nominating Calendar:

• Invisible Primary: requires early retail politics work to sell oneself to small group of people, exemplified by Jimmy Carter in Iowa, and involves talking to party leaders, voters, and donors, selling a "message."
• Bellwether Primaries: the earliest primaries/caucuses that winnow the field from 15 candidates to 4.
• Battle Ground Primaries: Super Tuesday, involves many primaries/caucuses all at once.
• Wholesale Politics: employing money raised initially from the primary.
• Bridge Primaries: When the incumbent start campaign at this stage.

Candidate Viability

• Constructing a message that gains traction with donors.
• Garnering political and celebrity endorsements.
• Raising early money.
• Building a campaign organization.
• Primaries allow candidates to be vetted and control their image.

Elections

• Elections create mandates and give direction to the country.

Fundamentals of Elections:

• Economics and approval of the President are key factors.
• Presidential job approval ratings influence re-election chances: 50% or more approval means likely re-election, 45% is divided, and 40% or less is unlikely re-election.
• Battleground states are key.
• Exit polls reveal the most important issues to the American population.
• Candidate stances on said issues can impact voters.

Candidate Qualities:

• Ability to lead.
• Capacity to bring change.
• Good judgement and caring about the electorate.
• People love their member of Congress but not Congress as an institution (Fenno's Paradox).
• Presidents previously brought people from Congress on their coattails, but the Fenno's Paradox dispels this.

Presidential Personality

• Barber's Presidential Character: defines how one orients themselves towards life.
• This involves analyzing self-confidence, self-doubt, and reliance on one's own judgment.

Barber's Personality Typology:

• Adaptive President (Self-confident, flexible, Optimistic): JFK, FDR, Truman, Bush I, Carter.
• Compliant President (Low self-esteem, ingratiating personality, easily manipulated, superficially optimistic): Reagan, Clinton.
• Compulsive President (Low self-esteem, driven, rigid, pessimistic, with success and failure): Nixon, LBJ, Wilson.
• Withdrawn President (Low self-esteem, sense of duty & service, avoids uncertainty/conflict, prefers principles & procedures): Eisenhower, Bush II.

Modern Presidency - Leadership

• The President brings their administration with them.
• Important leadership qualities include effectiveness as a public communicator, organizational capacity, political skills, vision, cognitive style, and emotional intelligence.

Inventing the Presidency

• Framers feared monarchy.
• Framer’s Vision: An energetic, safe executive with no risk of monarchy
• Federalist #69 confirms this.

A King or a President?

• Power of Precedent: Washington set the precedent for only two terms.
• Power does not always come from constitutional powers.
• Persuading people, Congress, and bureaucrats matters.
• Requirements of persuasion include personal reputation, public prestige, and personal skill.

Public Presidency

• Woodrow Wilson believed Presidents can make anything of the office.
• In the 20th century, the President became the leader of the party and nation.
• Government complexity forces the President to be less executive and more political.
• Negotiating and bargaining involve patterned and recurring relationships.
• Highly structured decision-making is common, involving many actors with power and mobilizing elites and masses.
• Going public lacks coalitions or negotiation, forcing legislators to act as delegates and making compromising difficult.

Transition to Public Presidency

• Technology changed: the advent of radio with FDR's Fireside Chats, Lincoln's newspapers, and television.

Public Leadership Styles:

• Director: Changes things even when public doesn't want to.
• Facilitator: Doing what the public and congress already want.
• Challenging Public Leadership: Gaining public attention, receptivity, and presentation skills.

Presidents & The Press

• “Don't let the press set the agenda” –Dick Cheney
• Journalism has evolved to partisan journalism, lapdog journalism, watchdog journalism (investigative rather than reporting), and attack dog journalism.
• The permanent campaign is a concept where campaigns for president never stop, therefore, candidates are perpetually in campaign mode and governing & campaigning merge.
• Prerequisites for the permanent campaign include the decline of political parties, an explosion of advocacy groups, new communication technology like live TV, new political technology like polling, higher availability of political funding, and high stakes of government policy.

President and Public Opinion

• Presidential approval trends have been tracked back to the 1930s.

Factors impacting presidential approval

• Time: Approval decreases as presidents are in office longer.
• Economic Conditions: Recessions, inflation, depressions, and thriving economies can affect approval. The "Rally Around the Flag" effect can lead to approval spikes during foreign policy events like 9/11.
• Dramatic Events that happen to the President (Reagan, Bush).
• Individual Effects: Presidential popularity is also affected by personality traits, family, charm, and speaking abilities.
• War: Vietnam decreased LBJ's approval.