PERT Technique for Uncertainty in Project Management

What is the primary purpose of the PERT technique?

What are the three estimates required for each activity in PERT?

What distribution does PERT assume for activity durations?

What is the formula to calculate the Expected Time (te) in PERT?

What is the formula to calculate the Standard Deviation (s) in PERT?

What is the expected time for activity A?

What is the standard deviation for activity B?

What is the purpose of calculating the expected duration and standard deviation for the entire chain of activities?

What is the expected duration of the chain?

What is the standard deviation for the chain?

What is the target in project completion?

What is the formula to calculate the z-value?

What does the z-value represent?

What is the purpose of the graph of z-values?

How can you determine the probability of meeting the project target?

What is the critical chain concept?

PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique)

PERT is a project management technique used to estimate activity durations and project completion times, incorporating uncertainty into the estimations.
PERT requires three estimates for each activity:
- Most Likely Time (m): The most probable duration for the activity.
- Optimistic Time (a): The shortest possible time for the activity, assuming everything goes exceptionally well.
- Pessimistic Time (b): The longest possible time for the activity, assuming significant delays and challenges.

PERT Assumptions and Calculations

PERT assumes that activity durations follow a beta distribution, which allows for incorporating uncertainty.
Expected Time (te): (a + 4m + b) / 6
Standard Deviation (s): (b - a) / 6

Activity Dependencies and Chain Duration

Activities arranged in a chain imply that each activity depends on the completion of the previous activity.
The expected duration of the chain is the sum of the expected times for each activity.
The standard deviation for the chain is calculated as the square root of the sum of the squared standard deviations for each activity.

Assessing the Likelihood of Meeting a Target

A target date or time frame for completing the project is set.
Z-Value Calculation: z = (T - te) / s, where T is the target completion time, te is the expected completion time, and s is the standard deviation for the project.
Z-Value Interpretation: The z-value represents the number of standard deviations the target completion time is away from the expected completion time.

Critical Chain Concept

The critical chain concept is a project management methodology that addresses potential inefficiencies in traditional project scheduling.
Traditional project planning often incorporates "safety zones" or buffers, which can lead to inefficiencies.

Learn how to use PERT to evaluate uncertainty in activity durations and project completion times. This technique is used in project management to estimate activity durations and incorporate uncertainty into the estimations.