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Questions and Answers
What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?
What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?
As compared to long-range forecasts, short-range forecasts:
As compared to long-range forecasts, short-range forecasts:
One use of short-range forecasts is to determine:
One use of short-range forecasts is to determine:
Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?
Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?
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A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:
A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:
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Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a:
Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a:
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The three major types of forecasts used by organisations in planning future operations are:
The three major types of forecasts used by organisations in planning future operations are:
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Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?
Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?
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Short-range forecasts tend to ________ longer-range forecasts.
Short-range forecasts tend to ________ longer-range forecasts.
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Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process?
Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process?
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The two general approaches to forecasting are:
The two general approaches to forecasting are:
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Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?
Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?
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The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as:
The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as:
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Which of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting?
Which of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting?
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Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?
Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?
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Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?
Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?
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Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?
Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?
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Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:
Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:
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Which of the following is not present in a time series?
Which of the following is not present in a time series?
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The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the:
The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the:
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In time series, which of the following cannot be predicted?
In time series, which of the following cannot be predicted?
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What is the forecast for May using a four-month moving average?
What is the forecast for May using a four-month moving average?
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Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?
Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?
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John's House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It assigns a weight of 5 to the previous month's demand, 3 to demand two months ago, and 1 to demand three months ago. If sales amounted to 1000 pancakes in May, 2200 pancakes in June, and 3000 pancakes in July, what should be the forecast for August?
John's House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It assigns a weight of 5 to the previous month's demand, 3 to demand two months ago, and 1 to demand three months ago. If sales amounted to 1000 pancakes in May, 2200 pancakes in June, and 3000 pancakes in July, what should be the forecast for August?
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A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand:
A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand:
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Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of:
Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of:
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Which of the following statements comparing exponential smoothing to the weighted moving average technique is TRUE?
Which of the following statements comparing exponential smoothing to the weighted moving average technique is TRUE?
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Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?
Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?
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Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?
Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?
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Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?
Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?
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Given an actual demand this period of 103, a forecast value for this period of 99, and an alpha of 0.4, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period?
Given an actual demand this period of 103, a forecast value for this period of 99, and an alpha of 0.4, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period?
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A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):
A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):
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Given an actual demand this period of 61, a forecast for this period of 58, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?
Given an actual demand this period of 61, a forecast for this period of 58, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?
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Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the SLOWEST to forecast errors?
Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the SLOWEST to forecast errors?
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A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation?
A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation?
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The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to:
The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to:
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Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?
Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?
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Suppose that the last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units, respectively. Suppose further that the last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units, respectively. What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of these forecasts?
Suppose that the last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units, respectively. Suppose further that the last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units, respectively. What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of these forecasts?
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A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1x. What is your forecast for period 7?
A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1x. What is your forecast for period 7?
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For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x. The negative sign on the slope of the equation:
For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x. The negative sign on the slope of the equation:
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Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?
Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?
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Which of the following is TRUE regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend (FIT) model?
Which of the following is TRUE regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend (FIT) model?
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Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally adjusted sales forecast for January?
Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally adjusted sales forecast for January?
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A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and 130. The average demand over all months during the three-year time period was 190. What is the approximate seasonal index for July?
A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and 130. The average demand over all months during the three-year time period was 190. What is the approximate seasonal index for July?
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Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units. Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units. If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20, what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places.)
Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units. Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units. If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20, what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places.)
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________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values.
________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values.
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If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data, he should:
If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data, he should:
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The degree or strength of a relationship between two variables is shown by the:
The degree or strength of a relationship between two variables is shown by the:
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If two variables were perfectly correlated, what would the coefficient of correlation r equal?
If two variables were perfectly correlated, what would the coefficient of correlation r equal?
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The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate:
The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate:
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The tracking signal is the:
The tracking signal is the:
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Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of:
Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of:
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Study Notes
Daily Reports and Forecasts
- Walt Disney Parks & Resorts' daily reports to the CEO include yesterday's forecasted attendance and actual attendance.
- Long-range forecasts are typically less specific and sometimes less accurate compared to short-range forecasts due to their extensive time frame.
Forecasting Horizons
- Forecasts are categorized into short-range, medium-range, and long-range based on the time frame.
- Short-range forecasts help with immediate job assignments, whereas medium-range forecasts are used for plans that span 3 months to 3 years.
Uses of Forecasts
- Long-range forecasts focus on strategic initiatives like capital expenditures and research and development.
- The three major types of forecasts for organizational planning include economic, technological, and demand forecasts.
Characteristics of Time-Series Forecasting
- Time-series data can exhibit trends, random variations, seasonality, and cycles.
- The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality lies in the duration of the repeating patterns.
Forecasting Techniques
- Two general approaches to forecasting are qualitative and quantitative.
- The Delphi method employs a diverse group of participants including decision-makers and respondents to gather insights.
Exponential Smoothing
- Exponential smoothing forecasts respond to changes based on past forecasts and actual demand data.
- The smoothing constant, or alpha, determines how the forecast adjusts to changes, with higher values leading to faster responses to errors.
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
- MAD is a critical measure for evaluating forecast accuracy by assessing the average magnitude of forecast errors without considering their direction.
- It can be calculated based on actual and forecasted values to determine the effectiveness of a forecasting model.
Seasonal Adjustments and Trends
- Adjustments can be made for seasonality in demand forecasts to arrive at more accurate predictions.
- Time-series trend equations help estimate future demand based on historical data.
Coefficients and Correlation
- The coefficient of correlation measures the strength of a relationship between two variables, with values ranging from -1 (perfect negative correlation) to 1 (perfect positive correlation).
- A tracking signal is utilized to monitor forecast accuracy and indicates when adjustments are necessary.
Application of Forecasting Models
- Techniques such as weighted moving averages assign different weights to past demand data, with more emphasis on recent observations to improve accuracy.
- If anomalies or trends are detected in data, it’s suggested to adjust the forecasting method used, employing a weighted strategy for more sensitive data sets.
Practical Forecasting Examples
- Specific examples, like the four-month moving average prediction for sales, showcase how historical data informs future forecasting.
- Products with complementary demands can be forecasted collectively to manage seasonal demand efficiently.
Summary of Key Points
- Understanding the various forecasting techniques and their applications is crucial for effective resource planning and decision-making.
- Forecast accuracy and adjustments can significantly impact operational efficiency and strategic planning within an organization.
Studying That Suits You
Use AI to generate personalized quizzes and flashcards to suit your learning preferences.
Description
Test your knowledge on organizational management concepts from Chapter 4 with these flashcards. Focus on key metrics and reporting techniques relevant to Walt Disney Parks & Resorts. Perfect for students and professionals looking to enhance their understanding of management practices.
