Operations Management Chapter 3: Demand Forecasting in Airlines

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Why are airlines interested in accurately forecasting the number of meals needed for each flight?

To improve operating efficiency

What is the primary reason for airlines to invest in forecasting the number of meals needed?

To accurately estimate the demand for goods and services

How does accurate forecasting of meals help in reducing costs for airlines?

By accurately estimating the demand for goods and services

What can be achieved through effective planning, organizing, and accurate forecasting for airline meal services?

Cost reduction and improved operating efficiency

How do planning, organizing, and accurate forecasting relate to each other in the context of airline meal services?

They overlap and interrelate, making control easier

How does accurate forecasting contribute to improving operating efficiency in airline meal services?

By improving the accuracy in estimating meal demand

In exponential smoothing, what type of forecasting technique is it?

Moving average forecasting

What does the smoothing constant, α, do in exponential smoothing?

It determines the error correction factor

What is the range in which the value of α is often kept for smoothing the forecast?

0.005 to 0.30

How is the forecast calculated in simple exponential smoothing?

$Ft = Ft-1 + \alpha(Dt-1 - Ft-1)$

What type of effect does simple exponential smoothing make no explicit adjustment for?

Trend effect

What determines whether the correction in simple exponential smoothing will be positive or negative?

Demand for last period

What does adjusted exponential smoothing take into account that simple exponential smoothing does not?

Trend effects

In exponential smoothing, what is used to compute the forecast Ft?

$\alpha$ value

What kind of data carries more weight in exponential smoothing?

Recent data carry more weight in the moving average.

What type of forecasting technique is exponential smoothing?

Quantitative forecasting

What is the process of predicting a future event based on historical data?

Forecasting

Why are forecasts almost always wrong?

Unpredictable future events

Which department depends on forecasts to project cash flows and capital requirements?

Finance

What is the underlying basis for all business decisions?

Forecasting

What does accurate forecasting contribute to in the context of airline meal services?

Enhancing operating efficiency

What do departments throughout the organization depend on forecasts for?

Formulating and executing plans

What is the typical time range for a short-range forecast?

3 months to 2 years

Which method of qualitative forecasting involves soliciting input from customers about their future purchasing plans?

Market Research/Survey

What method of qualitative forecasting aims to eliminate the influence of dominant individuals in a group?

Delphi Method

Which type of forecasting method is often used for new product planning and system design?

Executive Judgment

What is the typical time range for a long-range forecast?

> 2 years

Which quantitative forecasting method does not consider any other factors besides the historical data in making forecasts?

Naive Method

What is the primary focus of short-range forecasts?

Worker assignments

Which method of qualitative forecasting involves pooling sales estimates from regional salespersons at district and national levels?

Sales Force Composite

What is the focus of medium-range forecasts?

Sales/production planning

What is the main objective of the Delphi Method in forecasting?

To eliminate the effects of dominant individuals in a group

Test your understanding of demand forecasting for in-flight meals in the context of operations management. Explore key factors and considerations related to providing meals on airline flights, including budgeting and meal cost per passenger.

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