Questions and Answers
What is the primary purpose of conducting a war game?
What type of data is crucial for identifying severe but plausible impacts?
Which one of the following best describes a challenge in scenario analysis?
What characterizes the nature of war games?
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What kind of analysis is typically not supported by war games?
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Which is a benefit of performing scenario analysis using external loss data?
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What activities do participants typically engage in during a war game?
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What is a significant drawback of war games noted in the content?
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What is the primary goal of scenario analysis in operational risk management?
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Which of the following is a key benefit of using scenario analysis?
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In scenario analysis, what does the term 'severe but plausible' indicate?
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What factors can affect the outcomes of scenario analysis?
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What is a common challenge faced when analysing scenarios?
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Which element is NOT typically involved in constructing scenarios?
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Which bias may most impact the outcome of scenario analysis?
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How does scenario analysis relate to other operational risk tools?
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What is anchor bias?
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How can the facilitator's body language influence the scenario analysis?
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Which of the following is a potential source of conscious or motivational bias?
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What influence can culture have on scenario analysis in international firms?
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What role does the sequence of questions play in scenario analysis?
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Which form of bias is described as 'deliberate gaming'?
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What impact do distractions, such as interruptions, have on scenario analysis?
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What is a characteristic of 'herd instinct' in scenario analysis?
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What is the primary purpose of collecting outputs during scenario analysis?
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How is frequency defined in the context of scenario analysis?
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What should be made clear about the outputs being sought in a scenario analysis?
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What does likelihood refer to in the context of scenario analysis?
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What is the significance of consulting stakeholders during scenario analysis?
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What does the term 'impact' refer to in scenario analysis?
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When assessing capital requirements in scenario analysis, why is data collection critical?
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Which of the following accurately represents low likelihood in scenario analysis?
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What is one of the main objectives of conducting scenario analysis?
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Which of the following best describes a scenario in scenario analysis?
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How does scenario analysis help firms evaluate new business activities?
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Which exposure type is explicitly mentioned as needing evaluation during scenario analysis?
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What is a likely outcome of an effective scenario analysis regarding a firm's preparedness?
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What is NOT an objective of scenario analysis?
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Which of the following scenarios illustrates a chain of linked events?
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In scenario analysis, what should be evaluated regarding capital estimation?
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Study Notes
Operational Risk Tools - Scenario Analysis
- Scenario analysis is essential for managing operational risk, providing a structured way to outline potential adverse events.
- Scenarios should be 'severe but plausible,' representing a range of different severities to assess exposure effectively.
- Objectives of scenario analysis include assessing the firm's exposure, evaluating control sufficiency, and meeting regulatory requirements.
Types of Scenarios
- Scenarios involve multiple variables, capturing interconnected events’ impacts simultaneously.
- Examples of events include system failures alongside critical decision-making voids.
- War games facilitate competitive anticipation and strategic responses in evolving scenarios, but are resource-intensive and less suited for ongoing assessments.
Challenges in Scenario Analysis
- Identifying and involving the right stakeholders is crucial for effective scenario assessment.
- Ensuring diverse input in the analysis process enhances the robustness of outcomes and supports informed decision-making.
Outputs from Scenario Analysis
- Outputs should align with intended uses, such as capital requirement assessments, ensuring relevant data is gathered.
- Key metrics in analysis include frequency (rate of occurrence), likelihood (probability of events occurring within timelines), and impact, which can be financial or non-financial.
Forms of Bias in Scenario Analysis
- Bias can stem from the scenario assessment process, question structuring, facilitator influence, and organizational culture.
- Conscious bias may arise from risk managers aiming to influence outcomes, leading to herd mentality or dominance by certain individuals.
- Specific forms of bias include anchor bias, where initial estimates unduly influence participant estimates, and culture bias that may lead to underreporting based on regional attitudes toward failure and disclosure.
Validation and Relationship with Other Tools
- Scenario analysis results must be validated to ensure reliability and accuracy.
- Effective scenario analysis works in conjunction with other operational risk management tools and techniques, contributing to a comprehensive risk framework.
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Description
This quiz covers Chapter 8 of the Back Up Book for Printing, focusing on scenario analysis as a crucial tool in managing operational risk. Participants will explore the nature of scenarios and their benefits in risk management. Test your understanding of the principles and applications discussed in this chapter.