Nuclear War Risks in Global Politics

Nuclear War Risk in Contemporary Conflicts

• Renewed great power competition has resurrected nuclear war as a major concern.
• Experts question the validity of leaders' promises not to use nuclear weapons.
• Western analysts worry about eroding taboos against nuclear use, particularly with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• The uncertainty of nuclear weapon use in the future is the only certainty for many experts.

Factors Increasing Nuclear Risk

• Rising illiberalism in global politics (like Russia's aggression).
• Competition between the US, Russia, and China.
• Emergence of 21st-century technologies (social media, AI) are weakening reason and increasing the risk of nuclear escalation.
• Decline of reason is making nuclear threats more likely.

Leaders, Decisions, and Potential Escalation

• Experts, like Stephen Van Evera, suggest that world leaders are often unreliable ("Liars rule the world").
• Russia's President Putin's invasion of Ukraine and potential nuclear weapon use, and recent withdrawal from the New START treaty, heighten the risk.
• Putin's anticipated easier victory in Ukraine was inaccurate; Russia is experiencing significant military setbacks.
• Putin's options include using tactical nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip, if facing a major setback like possible loss of Crimea.
• Putin hasn't faced catastrophic loss yet.

Expert Opinions and Predictions

• Cynthia Roberts (Hunter College) emphasizes the central role of nuclear weapons in modern politics.
• Scott Sagan (Stanford) points to the potential for reckless decisions by leaders on the brink of defeat.
• Charles Glaser (George Washington) suggests the possibility of rational uses of nuclear weapons despite the dangers, e.g., if Putin fears a monumental loss.
• Stephen Van Evera (MIT) is concerned about a US-Russia nuclear conflict.
• The balance of determination (resolve) between US and Russia is critical for the outcome.
• A consensus among experts suggests a massive conventional US retaliation in the event of a Russian nuclear attack, to mitigate escalation risk.
• Ethel Sullingen (political science professor) confirms the prevailing concerns.

Conclusion

• Experts widely believe a nuclear conflict is a growing possibility, due to renewed great power competition and the actions of unpredictable leaders.
• Technological advancements and declining reason are contributing factors.
• The potential for a nuclear escalation in Ukraine remains a major concern.

Explore the contemporary concerns around nuclear warfare amidst rising geopolitical tensions. This quiz examines the impact of illiberalism, great power competition, and modern technologies on nuclear risks. Gain insights into the perspectives of experts regarding decision-making and potential escalation scenarios.