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Questions and Answers
What impact do technological advances have on the stability of nuclear arsenals?
What impact do technological advances have on the stability of nuclear arsenals?
Technological advances increase the vulnerability of nuclear arsenals, challenging the stability of deterrence.
What strategies should nations adopt to ensure credible deterrence in light of modern technological changes?
What strategies should nations adopt to ensure credible deterrence in light of modern technological changes?
Nations should invest in redundancy, mobility, and advanced defenses to ensure credible deterrence.
What are the risks associated with developing advanced counterforce technologies?
What are the risks associated with developing advanced counterforce technologies?
Developing advanced counterforce technologies may provoke adversaries and escalate tensions.
How does South Korea's counterforce strategy address its concerns regarding North Korea?
How does South Korea's counterforce strategy address its concerns regarding North Korea?
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What are the key elements of South Korea's Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy?
What are the key elements of South Korea's Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy?
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What challenges arise from the adoption of a conventional counterforce strategy for South Korea?
What challenges arise from the adoption of a conventional counterforce strategy for South Korea?
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Why is balancing offensive and defensive capabilities critical for maintaining stability?
Why is balancing offensive and defensive capabilities critical for maintaining stability?
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What does the erosion of nuclear survivability imply for future arms control agreements?
What does the erosion of nuclear survivability imply for future arms control agreements?
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What is the primary threat posed by Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons to India's military strategy?
What is the primary threat posed by Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons to India's military strategy?
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How do India's investments in advanced military capabilities relate to its nuclear strategy with Pakistan?
How do India's investments in advanced military capabilities relate to its nuclear strategy with Pakistan?
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What effect do advancements in military technology have on the survivability of nuclear arsenals?
What effect do advancements in military technology have on the survivability of nuclear arsenals?
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How do counterforce capabilities differ from traditional nuclear deterrence strategies?
How do counterforce capabilities differ from traditional nuclear deterrence strategies?
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What are the potential consequences of India adopting a counterforce strategy against Pakistan?
What are the potential consequences of India adopting a counterforce strategy against Pakistan?
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What implications does the erosion of nuclear survivability have for global security?
What implications does the erosion of nuclear survivability have for global security?
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How does the concept of nuclear survivability relate to the shift toward counterforce strategies?
How does the concept of nuclear survivability relate to the shift toward counterforce strategies?
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What recommendations do Fravel and Glaser provide for a U.S. strategy in the South China Sea?
What recommendations do Fravel and Glaser provide for a U.S. strategy in the South China Sea?
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What strategic recommendation do Clary and Narang make regarding India's nuclear posture?
What strategic recommendation do Clary and Narang make regarding India's nuclear posture?
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How has the concept of deterrence evolved due to modern counterforce technologies?
How has the concept of deterrence evolved due to modern counterforce technologies?
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In the context of arms control, what challenges arise from India's potential pursuit of counterforce capabilities?
In the context of arms control, what challenges arise from India's potential pursuit of counterforce capabilities?
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In what ways might the challenges of arms control be exacerbated by advancements in military technology?
In what ways might the challenges of arms control be exacerbated by advancements in military technology?
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Describe how advances in missile accuracy impact nuclear deterrence dynamics between India and Pakistan.
Describe how advances in missile accuracy impact nuclear deterrence dynamics between India and Pakistan.
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What are the broader implications for global nuclear trends stemming from regional developments between India and Pakistan?
What are the broader implications for global nuclear trends stemming from regional developments between India and Pakistan?
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What role do regional partnerships and multilateral institutions play in U.S. strategy toward China?
What role do regional partnerships and multilateral institutions play in U.S. strategy toward China?
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Why might countries feel compelled to diversify their nuclear arsenals as a result of changing deterrence dynamics?
Why might countries feel compelled to diversify their nuclear arsenals as a result of changing deterrence dynamics?
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Study Notes
Nuclear Postures
- Different nuclear postures affect conflict dynamics
- Three postures exist: catalytic, assured retaliation, and asymmetric escalation
- South Asia (India and Pakistan) is a unique case study due to prolonged rivalry and evolving nuclear strategies
Catalytic Posture
- Aims to encourage external intervention (e.g., major power like US) to deter aggression
- Nuclear capability is ambiguous
- Little operational readiness, primarily used for signaling
Assured Retaliation Posture
- Focuses on maintaining a survivable second-strike capability to deter nuclear threats
- Nuclear capabilities are transparent, with ambiguous deployment to enhance survivability
- Avoids first-use of nuclear weapons
- Example: India's posture since the late 1980s, emphasizing centralized control and survivable deterrence
Asymmetric Escalation Posture
- Designed to deter conventional attacks by threatening early first use of nuclear weapons
- Integrates nuclear weapons into military doctrine
- Allows for delegative control to enable battlefield use
- Example: Pakistan's posture after 1998
Impact on India-Pakistan Rivalry
- Pakistan's shift to asymmetric escalation increased nuclear use risk during crises
- India's restrained posture reflects a strategic calculus to avoid escalation and preserve centralized civilian control
India's Counterforce Temptations
- Potential shift in nuclear strategy from assured retaliation to incorporate counterforce options (targeting adversary nuclear arsenals preemptively)
- Evolving posture reflects adaptation to challenges posed by Pakistan's use of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs)
- Investments in high-precision delivery systems, ballistic missile defense, and advanced surveillance are observed
When Actions Speak Louder Than Words
- Article evaluates credibility of nuclear no-first-use (NFU) pledges in U.S. nuclear policy
- NFU pledges commit a state to using nuclear weapons only in retaliation for nuclear attack
- Credibility depends on political relations with adversaries, and the state's military capabilities to execute a first strike
Would China Go Nuclear?
- Evaluating the risk of Chinese nuclear escalation during a conventional war with the United States
- Comparing "escalation optimists" (believe nuclear escalation is unlikely) with "escalation pessimists" (highlight significant risks due to entanglement of conventional and nuclear forces in China's military posture)
The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma
- Article examines how the security dilemma between the US and China is exacerbated.
- The entanglement of conventional and nuclear capabilities influences China's nuclear posture
- Focuses on risks posed by this entanglement to arms race stability, crisis management, and broader US-China relations
- Analyses US actions, including deploying advanced missile defenses and conventional precision-strike systems, and their influence on China's nuclear posture
Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation
- Discusses the risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation in a potential conventional conflict between China and the US
- Focuses on how inadvertent attacks and vulnerabilities in China's nuclear forces and command systems could trigger escalation
- Identifies key mechanisms of inadvertent escalation (use-it-or-lose-it, unauthorized/accidental escalation, and damage-limitation)
How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea
- Explores US-China tensions in the South China Sea (SCS)
- Examines how much the U.S. should resist China's attempts to dominate the region
- Argues for a cautious approach to avoid unnecessary conflicts while balancing the risks of escalation with strategic interests
The New Era of Counterforce
- Examines how advancements in military technology (like precision targeting and remote sensing) undermine the survivability of nuclear arsenals
- Arguments that these trends challenge traditional deterrence notions
- Analysis focuses on counterforce capabilities (disarming an adversary's nuclear arsenal).
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Description
Explore the complex nuclear postures in South Asia, focusing on catalytic, assured retaliation, and asymmetric escalation strategies. This quiz delves into how these approaches influence conflict dynamics, particularly between India and Pakistan. Understand the implications of each posture and their strategies for deterrence.
