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Questions and Answers

When valuing a company, how does high growth potentially impact its value?

  • It always increases value, as higher growth directly translates to higher earnings.
  • It has a neutral effect on value, as growth is already factored into the initial investment.
  • It is a double-edged sword; the net effect depends on whether the increase in earnings outweighs reinvestments. (correct)
  • It always decreases value, due to the increased reinvestment needed to sustain the growth.

Which of the following is NOT a fundamental approach to estimating a company's growth?

  • Tying operating income growth to reinvestments and returns.
  • Analyzing historical earnings per share. (correct)
  • Starting with revenue growth and forecasting margins.
  • Examining consensus analyst estimates.

A company reports negative earnings in the initial year of a growth analysis. Which of the following is the MOST appropriate approach when calculating the growth rate?

  • Disregard the negative earnings and use zero as the starting value.
  • Use the absolute value of the earnings in the initial period as the denominator. (correct)
  • Use the negative earnings value directly in the growth rate calculation.
  • Assume a 0% growth rate due to the initial negative earnings.

Callaway Golf's net profits grew significantly between 1990 and 1996. Given this historical data, what is a potential limitation of extrapolating these growth rates far into the future?

<p>High initial growth rates are unsustainable and likely to decline as the company matures. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the key sensitivities to consider when using historical growth rates to project future growth?

<p>The period used for estimation and the metric in which growth is estimated. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When calculating historical growth rates, how do arithmetic and geometric averages differ, and when is each most appropriate?

<p>Arithmetic averages do not assume compounding, while geometric averages do. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When a company has negative earnings in the starting period, calculating a growth rate can be problematic. Besides using the absolute value, what is another described solution?

<p>Use the higher of the two numbers as the denominator. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why can scaling up create challenges when using historical growth rates to forecast future growth?

<p>Maintaining the same growth rate becomes more difficult as a company's size increases. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary role of analysts regarding company stocks?

<p>To find undervalued and overvalued stocks within their sector. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant portion of an analyst's time spent on?

<p>Forecasting earnings per share. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company had a significant net loss in one year due to a one-time restructuring charge. How should this be handled when calculating historical growth rates?

<p>Adjust the earnings for that year to remove the effect of the one-time charge. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason for examining analysts' growth rate estimates when forecasting a company's future growth?

<p>It provides an external perspective and incorporates market expectations. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following describes the nature of analyst forecasts of earnings per share (EPS) and expected growth?

<p>They are widely disseminated by services such as Zacks and IBES, at least for U.S. companies. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company's net profit grows from $10 million to $30 million over two years. Using the initial year as the denominator, what is the calculated growth rate?

<p>200% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Time Warner had an earnings per share of -$0.05 in 1996 and is expected to have an earnings per share of $0.25 in 1997. Why is it problematic to calculate a growth rate directly from these figures?

<p>Growth rates are not meaningful when transitioning from a loss to a profit. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company's earnings were -$0.05 in the first year and $0.30 in the second year. If you choose to use the higher of the two numbers as the denominator, what is the growth rate?

<p>120% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to studies comparing analysts' EPS forecasts to those of time series models, which statement is most accurate?

<p>Analysts' forecasts are marginally more accurate than time series models, but the difference is small. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor generally reduces the advantage that analysts have over time series models in forecasting?

<p>Larger forecast periods, such as 5 years. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is generally observed regarding the correlation of growth forecasts among different analysts?

<p>Analysts' forecasts and revisions are highly correlated. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Based on the study of All-America Analysts, what was the key finding regarding their earnings forecasting ability in the period prior to being chosen for the team?

<p>Their median forecast error was approximately the same as that of other analysts. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the study, how did the forecasting accuracy of All-America Analysts compare to other analysts in the calendar year following their selection?

<p>Their forecast accuracy was slightly better than that of other analysts. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What impact do earnings revisions made by All-America analysts tend to have on stock prices, compared to revisions from other analysts?

<p>A much greater impact. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the observed impact of buy recommendations made by All-America analysts on stock prices?

<p>An immediate price increase, followed by a sustained rise. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What distinguishes the equity reinvestment rate from the retention ratio?

<p>The equity reinvestment rate can exceed 100%, whereas the retention ratio cannot. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following adjustments is necessary when calculating 'Net Income from non-cash assets'?

<p>Subtracting interest income from cash (net of tax) from the reported net income. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the correct method for deriving 'Non-cash ROE'?

<p>Divide Net Income from non-cash assets by (Book Value of Equity - Cash). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company has a high equity reinvestment rate. What implications does this have for its expected growth rate in net income?

<p>The company's expected growth rate can potentially exceed its non-cash ROE. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Coca Cola had a net income of $11,809 million and interest income from cash of $105 million in 2010. What was Coca Cola's Net Income from non-cash assets in 2010?

<p>$11,704 million (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Coca Cola had a book value of equity of $25,346 million and a cash balance of $7,021 million. What was the non-cash book equity?

<p>$18,325 million (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Equity Reinvestment is calculated as Net Capital Expenditures + Change in Working Capital - Change in Debt. If a company has capital expenditures of $2,215 million, depreciation of $1,443 million, an increase in working capital of $335 million and an increase in total debt of $150 million, what is the Equity Reinvestment?

<p>$957 million (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Using non-cash ROE and equity reinvestment rate, the expected growth rate in net income is derived. If a company has a non-cash ROE of 63.87% and an equity reinvestment rate of 8.18%, what is the expected growth rate in net income?

<p>5.22% (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the reinvestment rate primarily defined in the context of operating income growth?

<p>The proportion of earnings reinvested back into the company; calculated as (Net Capital Expenditures + Change in WC) / EBIT(1-t). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In fundamental growth analysis, if a company consistently reinvests 60% of its earnings and maintains a stable return on investment (ROI) of 15%, what is the expected growth rate of its earnings?

<p>9% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Return on Capital (ROC) measure?

<p>The profitability relative to the capital employed; calculated as EBIT(1-t) / (BV of Debt + BV of Equity - Cash). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What might be concerning about a company like Cisco having a very high reinvestment rate derived primarily from acquisitions?

<p>It suggests that organic growth opportunities may be limited and future growth is heavily reliant on successful integration and performance of acquired companies. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company is evaluating a new project. The ROI on its existing projects is 10%. How would undertaking a new project with an ROI of 15% affect the company's overall growth rate, given the parameters in the content?

<p>The growth rate will increase. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a company's Return on Capital (ROC) is expected to significantly increase, how does this affect the estimation of its operating income growth?

<p>It introduces a second component to growth, besides reinvestment, that must be accounted for in growth estimations. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following reinvestment measures is most appropriate when estimating the fundamental growth rate based on operating income?

<p>Reinvestment Rate, calculated using net capital expenditures and changes in non-cash working capital relative to after-tax operating income. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company has a reinvestment rate of 40% and a return on capital (ROC) of 15%. What is its expected growth rate in operating income, assuming fundamentals stay locked in?

<p>6% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company's ROI increases from 10% to 12%. If the investment in existing projects is $2,000 and new projects is $200, calculate the change in earnings, assuming current earnings are $200.

<p>$44 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Company X has a ROC of 12% this year. Next year, it's expected to increase to 15%, with a reinvestment rate of 30%. Using the provided formula, calculate the expected growth rate in operating income.

<p>28.5% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary advantage of using non-cash ROE over traditional ROE when estimating fundamental growth?

<p>Non-cash ROE excludes the impact of cash holdings, providing a clearer view of operational efficiency. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A firm has a net income of $500, net capital expenditures of $100, an increase in non-cash working capital of $50, and a decrease in debt of $25. What is the equity reinvestment rate?

<p>25% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary implication if a firm's net capital expenditure needs are inversely proportional to the quality of its investments, given a specific growth rate?

<p>Higher quality investments require less capital expenditure to achieve the same growth rate. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Under which conditions is it generally NOT advisable to use sustainable growth equations to estimate a company's growth?

<p>If return on capital and margins are expected to change significantly. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When estimating sustainable growth, under what condition can the simple formula: Growth Rate in Earnings = Reinvestment Rate * Return on Investment be accurately applied?

<p>When ROI on existing projects remains unchanged and is equal to the ROI on new projects. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company’s after-tax operating income is $250 million. Its net capital expenditures are $40 million, and the increase in non-cash working capital is $10 million. Calculate the reinvestment rate.

<p>20% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What adjustment is needed when using Return on Equity (ROE) to estimate growth if a company holds a significant amount of cash?

<p>Use non-cash ROE, calculated as Net Income from non-cash assets/ (Book value of equity – Cash). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A company reinvests 40% of its earnings and has a ROIC of 12%. If it suddenly decides to increase its reinvestment rate to 60% while its ROIC decreases to 10%, what is the subsequent impact on its sustainable growth rate?

<p>Sustainable growth will remain the same. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Growth: Good or Bad?

Growth can increase revenue and operating income, but requires reinvestment. Value creation depends on whether the benefits outweigh the costs.

Earnings Growth: 3 factors

Past growth, analyst estimates and fundamental drivers relating reinvestment and returns.

Historical EPS Growth

The historical growth in earnings per share serves as a starting point when estimating growth.

Growth Rates: Arithmetic vs. Geometric

Arithmetic averages add up the growth rates and divide, while geometric averages compounds them.

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Growth Rates: Sensitivity

Using historical growth rates can be affected by the time frame and the specific measurement used.

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Growth Rates: Scaling effects

Scaling up refers to how large a company has become and if this size will affect the growth rate.

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Calculating Growth Rate

Past growth = (Ending Value - Beginning Value) / Beginning Value

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Negative Earnings: Issue

Negative earnings in the base year can create misleading growth rates, especially when transitioning to profitability.

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Negative Earnings Growth Rate Issue

When the starting period earnings are negative, calculating the growth rate is not possible using standard methods.

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Higher Denominator Solution

Using the higher of the two numbers as the denominator to calculate growth rate when starting earnings are negative.

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Absolute Value Solution

Using the absolute value of earnings in the starting period as the denominator to calculate growth rate.

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Linear Regression Solution

Using a linear regression model to estimate growth and dividing the coefficient by the average earnings.

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Geometric Average Growth Rate

The average growth rate over a period, calculated by multiplying the growth rates together, taking the nth root, and subtracting 1.

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Extrapolation

Estimating future values based on past trends. This method may be unreliable if trends change.

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Analyst Forecasting Focus

Analysts spend considerable time forecasting earnings per share (EPS), especially for the next earnings report.

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Dissemination of Analyst Forecasts

Earnings per share and expected growth forecasts are widely available from financial data services.

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Analyst Forecast Accuracy

Analysts' EPS forecasts are generally more accurate than simple time series models, but the improvement is often small.

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Forecast Period Impact

Analysts' advantage over time series models decreases as the forecast period lengthens (e.g., next quarter vs. 5 years).

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Firm Size Matters

Analysts' edge over time series models is greater for larger firms than smaller ones.

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Industry vs. Company Focus

Analysts' advantage is greater at the industry level than at the company level.

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Correlation in Forecasts

Analysts' growth forecasts and revisions tend to be highly correlated, showing similar thinking.

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All-America Analysts (Initial)

Being named an All-America Analyst initially does NOT mean better earnings forecasts.

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All-America Analysts (Later)

All-America Analysts do become slightly better forecasters after being chosen.

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Market Impact of 'Top' Analysts

Earnings revisions and recommendations by All-America Analysts have a greater impact on stock prices.

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Net Income from Non-Cash Assets

Net income adjusted to exclude interest income from cash holdings, providing a clearer view of operational profitability.

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Equity Reinvestment Rate

The proportion of net income from non-cash assets reinvested into real investments, reflecting a company's growth strategy.

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Non-Cash ROE

A measure of how efficiently equity is used to generate income from non-cash assets, excluding the impact of cash holdings.

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Expected Growth in Net Income

The anticipated rate at which net income from non-cash assets is expected to increase, based on reinvestment and ROE.

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Equity Reinvestment

Capital expenditures and working capital investments using equity.

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Coca-Cola's Non-cash Net Income (2010)

Coca-Cola's income excluding interest from cash in 2010.

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Coca-Cola's Non-cash Book Equity (2009)

Coca-Cola's equity excluding cash holdings in 2009.

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Coca-Cola's Reinvestment Rate (2010)

Portion of Coca-Cola's non-cash net income reinvested.

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Reinvestment Rate

A measure of how much a company is investing back into its operations for growth.

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Return on Capital (ROC)

A measure of a company's profitability relative to its total capital.

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Growth Rate Formula

Expected Growth Rate in Operating Income = Reinvestment Rate * ROC

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Growth vs. Investment Quality

Growth rate is inversely related to the quality of investments; higher quality needs less capital.

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Overstated ROC

If ROC is overstated, growth projections may be too optimistic.

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Reinvestment via Acquisitions

Acquisitions can boost reinvestment but are not always a sign of organic growth.

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Growth Rate Formula (Changing ROC)

Expected Growth Rate = (ROC t+1 * Reinvestment rate) + ((ROC t+1 – ROCt) / ROCt)

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Limitations of Growth Equations

Avoid using sustainable growth equations when ROC or margins are unstable or expected to change significantly.

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Current Earnings

Earnings are a product of investment in existing projects multiplied by the return on those investments.

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Next Period's Earnings

Growth includes both return on existing projects and return on new investments.

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Growth Rate (constant ROI)

If ROI is constant, growth in earnings is the product of the reinvestment rate and the return on investment.

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Change in Earnings (varying ROI)

When assessing ROI changes from period to period, it involves return on existing projects and new projects.

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Retention Ratio

The portion of net income retained by the company.

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Fundamental Growth

Helps estimate fundamental growth based on how much a company reinvests.

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Return on Equity (ROE)

Net income divided by the book value of equity.

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Study Notes

  • Growth can be good, bad, or neutral for a company’s overall value.

The Value of Growth

  • Estimating growth is important when valuing a company, but higher growth does not always translate to higher value.
  • Growth is a double-edged sword, pushing up revenues and operating income, at varying rates depending on margin evolution.
  • Growth requires reinvestment, and the net effect depends on whether the positives of revenue outweigh the negatives of reinvestment.

Ways of Estimating Growth in Earnings

  • You can estimate growth by: looking at the past, looking at what others are estimating or looking at fundamentals
  • Historical earnings per share growth is a common starting point for estimating future growth.
  • Analyst estimates of growth in earnings per share are available for many firms.
  • Operating income growth can be linked to reinvestment and returns when margins are stable.
  • With changing margins, forecasts of revenue growth, margins, and reinvestment are required.

Historical Growth

Estimates of historical growth rates can be made using:

  • Arithmetic versus Geometric Averages
  • Simple versus Regression Models
  • Historical growth rates are sensitive to the time period used for estimation
  • Growth rates are affected by negative earnings and scaling effects.

Dealing With Negative Earnings:

  • Growth rate cannot be estimated when the starting period has negative earnings.
  • Linear regression, or using the absolute value of earnings in the starting period as the denominator are alternate solutions
  • Growth rates from negative earnings may be meaningless for future predictions.

Analysts Forecasts of Growth

  • Although analysts are tasked with finding undervalued stocks within their sectors, analyst devote considerable time to forecasting earnings per share.
  • Analysts typically spend their time forecasting the next earnings report.
  • Analyst forecasts of earnings per share and growth are often disseminated by services like Zacks and IBES, especially for U.S. companies.

How Good are Analysts at Forecasting Growth?

  • Analyst forecasts the EPS tend to be closer to the actual EPS than simple time series models, but the differences are typically small
  • The advantage that analysts have over time series models is higher for larger firms compared to smaller ones
  • It can be higher at the industry level versus the company level.
  • The advantage that analysts have over time series models tends to decrease with the forecast period (next quarter versus 5 years)
  • Forecasts of growth and revisions tend to the highly correlated across analysts.

Propositions About Analyst Growth Rates

  • Proposition 1: There is less private information and more public information in analyst forecasts than generally believed.
  • Proposition 2: The company itself is the biggest source of private information for analysts, which might explain:
    • More buy recommendations than sell recommendations due to information bias and the need to preserve sources.
    • The high correlation across analysts' forecasts and revisions.
    • All-America analysts becoming better forecasters after being chosen for the team.
  • Proposition 3: Knowing analysts' forecasts for earnings growth is valuable, but caution is advised when they agree excessively (lemmingitis) or disagree significantly (noisy information).

Sustainable Growth and Fundamentals

  • Fundamental growth rates can be derived from reinvestment and returns on investments.
  • The formula for fundamental growth rate is: Growth = Reinvestment Rate * Return on Investment

Expected Long-Term Growth in EPS

  • Reinvestment Rate = Retained Earnings / Current Earnings = Retention Ratio
  • Return on Investment = ROE = Net Income / Book Value of Equity
  • In the special case where the current ROE is expected to remain unchanged gEPS = Retained Earnings t-1/ NI t-1 * ROE

One Way to Pump up ROE: Use More Debt

  • Return on Equity = Return on capital + D/E (ROC - i (1-tax rate)) where
    • Return on capital = EBIT₁ (1 - tax rate) / Book value of Capitalt-1
    • D/E = BV of Debt/ BV of Equity
    • i = Interest Expense on Debt / BV of Debt
  • In 1998, Brahma (now Ambev) used debt to increase return on equity.
  • 1998, Return on Capital = 19.91%
  • Debt/Equity Ratio = 77%
  • After-tax Cost of Debt = 5.61%
  • 1998 Return on Equity = 30.92%

Expected Growth in Net Income from Non-Cash Assets

  • Earnings growth can be be obtained by reinvestment in real estate investment
  • It can also be obtained by modifying the return on equity definition to exclude cash:
    • Net Income from non-cash assets = Net income – Interest income from cash (1-t)
  • Equity Reinvestment Rate = = (Net Capital Expenditures + Change in Working Capital) (1 - Debt Ratio)/ Net Income from non-cash assets
  • Non-cash ROE = Net Income from non-cash assets/ (BV of Equity – Cash)
  • Expected Growth Net Incomeme = Equity Reinvestment Rate * Non-cash ROE

Expected Growth in EBIT and Fundamentals: Stable ROC and Reinvestment Rate

  • Reinvestment Rate = (Net Capital Expenditures + Change in WC)/EBIT(1-t)
  • Return on Investment = ROC = EBIT(1-t)/(BV of Debt + BV of Equity-Cash)
  • Expected Growth rate in Operating Income = (Net Capital Expenditures + Change in WC)/EBIT(1-t) * ROC
  • Expected Growth rate in Operating Income = Reinvestment Rate * ROC
  • Proposition: The net capital expenditure needs of a firm, for a given growth rate, should be inversely proportional to the quality of its investments.

Estimating Growth When Operating Income Is Negative or Margins Are Changing

  • All fundamental growth equations assume a sustainable return on equity or capital in the long term.
  • When operating income is negative or margins are expected to change over time, a three-step process is needed:
    • Estimate growth rates in revenues over time to see revenue growth, industry economics and competitive advantage
    • Estimate expected operating margins each year using target market and adjusting current margins. -Capital needs to be invested to generate revenue growth and estimating a sales to capital ratio.

Revenue Growth

  • Market Size and Growth X Market Share determines how much the revenue grows
  • Market Size and Growth considerations include: -Current Market size: The size of the market for the company's products & services, given geography it is targeting and product type. -Expected Growth in Market: Growth in total market, as technology and market conditions change.
  • Market Share considerations include: -Company's current market share: If company's current market share is low, potential for growth in market share at expense of competition. -Industry economics: Nature of the business ( a few big winners or splintered competition). -Strength of company's competitive advantages: Stronger and more sustainable competitive advantages should allow for higher market share
  • The potential for revenue growth is greater for companies with small revenues (and market share) in a big and growing market, especially if the company has strong competitive advantages in winner-take-all businesses.

Sales to Invested Capital: A Pathway to Estimating Reinvestment

  • Sales to Invested Capital: Reinvestment -Current (Historical) Sales to Capital = The sales to invested capital ratio relates the revenues of the firm to its invested capital -Future Sales to Capital includes considerations for; scaling effects, excess capacity or the lag between investments
  • A company with higher expected growth in revenues will need to reinvest more

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