Podcast
Questions and Answers
When valuing a company, how does high growth potentially impact its value?
When valuing a company, how does high growth potentially impact its value?
- It always increases value, as higher growth directly translates to higher earnings.
- It has a neutral effect on value, as growth is already factored into the initial investment.
- It is a double-edged sword; the net effect depends on whether the increase in earnings outweighs reinvestments. (correct)
- It always decreases value, due to the increased reinvestment needed to sustain the growth.
Which of the following is NOT a fundamental approach to estimating a company's growth?
Which of the following is NOT a fundamental approach to estimating a company's growth?
- Tying operating income growth to reinvestments and returns.
- Analyzing historical earnings per share. (correct)
- Starting with revenue growth and forecasting margins.
- Examining consensus analyst estimates.
A company reports negative earnings in the initial year of a growth analysis. Which of the following is the MOST appropriate approach when calculating the growth rate?
A company reports negative earnings in the initial year of a growth analysis. Which of the following is the MOST appropriate approach when calculating the growth rate?
- Disregard the negative earnings and use zero as the starting value.
- Use the absolute value of the earnings in the initial period as the denominator. (correct)
- Use the negative earnings value directly in the growth rate calculation.
- Assume a 0% growth rate due to the initial negative earnings.
Callaway Golf's net profits grew significantly between 1990 and 1996. Given this historical data, what is a potential limitation of extrapolating these growth rates far into the future?
Callaway Golf's net profits grew significantly between 1990 and 1996. Given this historical data, what is a potential limitation of extrapolating these growth rates far into the future?
What are the key sensitivities to consider when using historical growth rates to project future growth?
What are the key sensitivities to consider when using historical growth rates to project future growth?
When calculating historical growth rates, how do arithmetic and geometric averages differ, and when is each most appropriate?
When calculating historical growth rates, how do arithmetic and geometric averages differ, and when is each most appropriate?
When a company has negative earnings in the starting period, calculating a growth rate can be problematic. Besides using the absolute value, what is another described solution?
When a company has negative earnings in the starting period, calculating a growth rate can be problematic. Besides using the absolute value, what is another described solution?
Why can scaling up create challenges when using historical growth rates to forecast future growth?
Why can scaling up create challenges when using historical growth rates to forecast future growth?
What is the primary role of analysts regarding company stocks?
What is the primary role of analysts regarding company stocks?
What is a significant portion of an analyst's time spent on?
What is a significant portion of an analyst's time spent on?
A company had a significant net loss in one year due to a one-time restructuring charge. How should this be handled when calculating historical growth rates?
A company had a significant net loss in one year due to a one-time restructuring charge. How should this be handled when calculating historical growth rates?
What is the primary reason for examining analysts' growth rate estimates when forecasting a company's future growth?
What is the primary reason for examining analysts' growth rate estimates when forecasting a company's future growth?
Which of the following describes the nature of analyst forecasts of earnings per share (EPS) and expected growth?
Which of the following describes the nature of analyst forecasts of earnings per share (EPS) and expected growth?
A company's net profit grows from $10 million to $30 million over two years. Using the initial year as the denominator, what is the calculated growth rate?
A company's net profit grows from $10 million to $30 million over two years. Using the initial year as the denominator, what is the calculated growth rate?
Time Warner had an earnings per share of -$0.05 in 1996 and is expected to have an earnings per share of $0.25 in 1997. Why is it problematic to calculate a growth rate directly from these figures?
Time Warner had an earnings per share of -$0.05 in 1996 and is expected to have an earnings per share of $0.25 in 1997. Why is it problematic to calculate a growth rate directly from these figures?
A company's earnings were -$0.05 in the first year and $0.30 in the second year. If you choose to use the higher of the two numbers as the denominator, what is the growth rate?
A company's earnings were -$0.05 in the first year and $0.30 in the second year. If you choose to use the higher of the two numbers as the denominator, what is the growth rate?
According to studies comparing analysts' EPS forecasts to those of time series models, which statement is most accurate?
According to studies comparing analysts' EPS forecasts to those of time series models, which statement is most accurate?
Which factor generally reduces the advantage that analysts have over time series models in forecasting?
Which factor generally reduces the advantage that analysts have over time series models in forecasting?
What is generally observed regarding the correlation of growth forecasts among different analysts?
What is generally observed regarding the correlation of growth forecasts among different analysts?
Based on the study of All-America Analysts, what was the key finding regarding their earnings forecasting ability in the period prior to being chosen for the team?
Based on the study of All-America Analysts, what was the key finding regarding their earnings forecasting ability in the period prior to being chosen for the team?
According to the study, how did the forecasting accuracy of All-America Analysts compare to other analysts in the calendar year following their selection?
According to the study, how did the forecasting accuracy of All-America Analysts compare to other analysts in the calendar year following their selection?
What impact do earnings revisions made by All-America analysts tend to have on stock prices, compared to revisions from other analysts?
What impact do earnings revisions made by All-America analysts tend to have on stock prices, compared to revisions from other analysts?
What is the observed impact of buy recommendations made by All-America analysts on stock prices?
What is the observed impact of buy recommendations made by All-America analysts on stock prices?
What distinguishes the equity reinvestment rate from the retention ratio?
What distinguishes the equity reinvestment rate from the retention ratio?
Which of the following adjustments is necessary when calculating 'Net Income from non-cash assets'?
Which of the following adjustments is necessary when calculating 'Net Income from non-cash assets'?
What is the correct method for deriving 'Non-cash ROE'?
What is the correct method for deriving 'Non-cash ROE'?
A company has a high equity reinvestment rate. What implications does this have for its expected growth rate in net income?
A company has a high equity reinvestment rate. What implications does this have for its expected growth rate in net income?
Coca Cola had a net income of $11,809 million and interest income from cash of $105 million in 2010. What was Coca Cola's Net Income from non-cash assets in 2010?
Coca Cola had a net income of $11,809 million and interest income from cash of $105 million in 2010. What was Coca Cola's Net Income from non-cash assets in 2010?
Coca Cola had a book value of equity of $25,346 million and a cash balance of $7,021 million. What was the non-cash book equity?
Coca Cola had a book value of equity of $25,346 million and a cash balance of $7,021 million. What was the non-cash book equity?
Equity Reinvestment is calculated as Net Capital Expenditures + Change in Working Capital - Change in Debt. If a company has capital expenditures of $2,215 million, depreciation of $1,443 million, an increase in working capital of $335 million and an increase in total debt of $150 million, what is the Equity Reinvestment?
Equity Reinvestment is calculated as Net Capital Expenditures + Change in Working Capital - Change in Debt. If a company has capital expenditures of $2,215 million, depreciation of $1,443 million, an increase in working capital of $335 million and an increase in total debt of $150 million, what is the Equity Reinvestment?
Using non-cash ROE and equity reinvestment rate, the expected growth rate in net income is derived. If a company has a non-cash ROE of 63.87% and an equity reinvestment rate of 8.18%, what is the expected growth rate in net income?
Using non-cash ROE and equity reinvestment rate, the expected growth rate in net income is derived. If a company has a non-cash ROE of 63.87% and an equity reinvestment rate of 8.18%, what is the expected growth rate in net income?
How is the reinvestment rate primarily defined in the context of operating income growth?
How is the reinvestment rate primarily defined in the context of operating income growth?
In fundamental growth analysis, if a company consistently reinvests 60% of its earnings and maintains a stable return on investment (ROI) of 15%, what is the expected growth rate of its earnings?
In fundamental growth analysis, if a company consistently reinvests 60% of its earnings and maintains a stable return on investment (ROI) of 15%, what is the expected growth rate of its earnings?
What does Return on Capital (ROC) measure?
What does Return on Capital (ROC) measure?
What might be concerning about a company like Cisco having a very high reinvestment rate derived primarily from acquisitions?
What might be concerning about a company like Cisco having a very high reinvestment rate derived primarily from acquisitions?
A company is evaluating a new project. The ROI on its existing projects is 10%. How would undertaking a new project with an ROI of 15% affect the company's overall growth rate, given the parameters in the content?
A company is evaluating a new project. The ROI on its existing projects is 10%. How would undertaking a new project with an ROI of 15% affect the company's overall growth rate, given the parameters in the content?
If a company's Return on Capital (ROC) is expected to significantly increase, how does this affect the estimation of its operating income growth?
If a company's Return on Capital (ROC) is expected to significantly increase, how does this affect the estimation of its operating income growth?
Which of the following reinvestment measures is most appropriate when estimating the fundamental growth rate based on operating income?
Which of the following reinvestment measures is most appropriate when estimating the fundamental growth rate based on operating income?
A company has a reinvestment rate of 40% and a return on capital (ROC) of 15%. What is its expected growth rate in operating income, assuming fundamentals stay locked in?
A company has a reinvestment rate of 40% and a return on capital (ROC) of 15%. What is its expected growth rate in operating income, assuming fundamentals stay locked in?
A company's ROI increases from 10% to 12%. If the investment in existing projects is $2,000 and new projects is $200, calculate the change in earnings, assuming current earnings are $200.
A company's ROI increases from 10% to 12%. If the investment in existing projects is $2,000 and new projects is $200, calculate the change in earnings, assuming current earnings are $200.
Company X has a ROC of 12% this year. Next year, it's expected to increase to 15%, with a reinvestment rate of 30%. Using the provided formula, calculate the expected growth rate in operating income.
Company X has a ROC of 12% this year. Next year, it's expected to increase to 15%, with a reinvestment rate of 30%. Using the provided formula, calculate the expected growth rate in operating income.
What is the primary advantage of using non-cash ROE over traditional ROE when estimating fundamental growth?
What is the primary advantage of using non-cash ROE over traditional ROE when estimating fundamental growth?
A firm has a net income of $500, net capital expenditures of $100, an increase in non-cash working capital of $50, and a decrease in debt of $25. What is the equity reinvestment rate?
A firm has a net income of $500, net capital expenditures of $100, an increase in non-cash working capital of $50, and a decrease in debt of $25. What is the equity reinvestment rate?
What is the primary implication if a firm's net capital expenditure needs are inversely proportional to the quality of its investments, given a specific growth rate?
What is the primary implication if a firm's net capital expenditure needs are inversely proportional to the quality of its investments, given a specific growth rate?
Under which conditions is it generally NOT advisable to use sustainable growth equations to estimate a company's growth?
Under which conditions is it generally NOT advisable to use sustainable growth equations to estimate a company's growth?
When estimating sustainable growth, under what condition can the simple formula: Growth Rate in Earnings = Reinvestment Rate * Return on Investment be accurately applied?
When estimating sustainable growth, under what condition can the simple formula: Growth Rate in Earnings = Reinvestment Rate * Return on Investment be accurately applied?
A company’s after-tax operating income is $250 million. Its net capital expenditures are $40 million, and the increase in non-cash working capital is $10 million. Calculate the reinvestment rate.
A company’s after-tax operating income is $250 million. Its net capital expenditures are $40 million, and the increase in non-cash working capital is $10 million. Calculate the reinvestment rate.
What adjustment is needed when using Return on Equity (ROE) to estimate growth if a company holds a significant amount of cash?
What adjustment is needed when using Return on Equity (ROE) to estimate growth if a company holds a significant amount of cash?
A company reinvests 40% of its earnings and has a ROIC of 12%. If it suddenly decides to increase its reinvestment rate to 60% while its ROIC decreases to 10%, what is the subsequent impact on its sustainable growth rate?
A company reinvests 40% of its earnings and has a ROIC of 12%. If it suddenly decides to increase its reinvestment rate to 60% while its ROIC decreases to 10%, what is the subsequent impact on its sustainable growth rate?
Flashcards
Growth: Good or Bad?
Growth: Good or Bad?
Growth can increase revenue and operating income, but requires reinvestment. Value creation depends on whether the benefits outweigh the costs.
Earnings Growth: 3 factors
Earnings Growth: 3 factors
Past growth, analyst estimates and fundamental drivers relating reinvestment and returns.
Historical EPS Growth
Historical EPS Growth
The historical growth in earnings per share serves as a starting point when estimating growth.
Growth Rates: Arithmetic vs. Geometric
Growth Rates: Arithmetic vs. Geometric
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Growth Rates: Sensitivity
Growth Rates: Sensitivity
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Growth Rates: Scaling effects
Growth Rates: Scaling effects
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Calculating Growth Rate
Calculating Growth Rate
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Negative Earnings: Issue
Negative Earnings: Issue
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Negative Earnings Growth Rate Issue
Negative Earnings Growth Rate Issue
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Higher Denominator Solution
Higher Denominator Solution
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Absolute Value Solution
Absolute Value Solution
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Linear Regression Solution
Linear Regression Solution
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Geometric Average Growth Rate
Geometric Average Growth Rate
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Extrapolation
Extrapolation
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Analyst Forecasting Focus
Analyst Forecasting Focus
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Dissemination of Analyst Forecasts
Dissemination of Analyst Forecasts
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Analyst Forecast Accuracy
Analyst Forecast Accuracy
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Forecast Period Impact
Forecast Period Impact
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Firm Size Matters
Firm Size Matters
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Industry vs. Company Focus
Industry vs. Company Focus
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Correlation in Forecasts
Correlation in Forecasts
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All-America Analysts (Initial)
All-America Analysts (Initial)
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All-America Analysts (Later)
All-America Analysts (Later)
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Market Impact of 'Top' Analysts
Market Impact of 'Top' Analysts
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Net Income from Non-Cash Assets
Net Income from Non-Cash Assets
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Equity Reinvestment Rate
Equity Reinvestment Rate
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Non-Cash ROE
Non-Cash ROE
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Expected Growth in Net Income
Expected Growth in Net Income
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Equity Reinvestment
Equity Reinvestment
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Coca-Cola's Non-cash Net Income (2010)
Coca-Cola's Non-cash Net Income (2010)
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Coca-Cola's Non-cash Book Equity (2009)
Coca-Cola's Non-cash Book Equity (2009)
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Coca-Cola's Reinvestment Rate (2010)
Coca-Cola's Reinvestment Rate (2010)
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Reinvestment Rate
Reinvestment Rate
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Return on Capital (ROC)
Return on Capital (ROC)
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Growth Rate Formula
Growth Rate Formula
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Growth vs. Investment Quality
Growth vs. Investment Quality
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Overstated ROC
Overstated ROC
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Reinvestment via Acquisitions
Reinvestment via Acquisitions
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Growth Rate Formula (Changing ROC)
Growth Rate Formula (Changing ROC)
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Limitations of Growth Equations
Limitations of Growth Equations
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Current Earnings
Current Earnings
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Next Period's Earnings
Next Period's Earnings
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Growth Rate (constant ROI)
Growth Rate (constant ROI)
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Change in Earnings (varying ROI)
Change in Earnings (varying ROI)
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Retention Ratio
Retention Ratio
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Fundamental Growth
Fundamental Growth
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Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Equity (ROE)
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Study Notes
- Growth can be good, bad, or neutral for a company’s overall value.
The Value of Growth
- Estimating growth is important when valuing a company, but higher growth does not always translate to higher value.
- Growth is a double-edged sword, pushing up revenues and operating income, at varying rates depending on margin evolution.
- Growth requires reinvestment, and the net effect depends on whether the positives of revenue outweigh the negatives of reinvestment.
Ways of Estimating Growth in Earnings
- You can estimate growth by: looking at the past, looking at what others are estimating or looking at fundamentals
- Historical earnings per share growth is a common starting point for estimating future growth.
- Analyst estimates of growth in earnings per share are available for many firms.
- Operating income growth can be linked to reinvestment and returns when margins are stable.
- With changing margins, forecasts of revenue growth, margins, and reinvestment are required.
Historical Growth
Estimates of historical growth rates can be made using:
- Arithmetic versus Geometric Averages
- Simple versus Regression Models
- Historical growth rates are sensitive to the time period used for estimation
- Growth rates are affected by negative earnings and scaling effects.
Dealing With Negative Earnings:
- Growth rate cannot be estimated when the starting period has negative earnings.
- Linear regression, or using the absolute value of earnings in the starting period as the denominator are alternate solutions
- Growth rates from negative earnings may be meaningless for future predictions.
Analysts Forecasts of Growth
- Although analysts are tasked with finding undervalued stocks within their sectors, analyst devote considerable time to forecasting earnings per share.
- Analysts typically spend their time forecasting the next earnings report.
- Analyst forecasts of earnings per share and growth are often disseminated by services like Zacks and IBES, especially for U.S. companies.
How Good are Analysts at Forecasting Growth?
- Analyst forecasts the EPS tend to be closer to the actual EPS than simple time series models, but the differences are typically small
- The advantage that analysts have over time series models is higher for larger firms compared to smaller ones
- It can be higher at the industry level versus the company level.
- The advantage that analysts have over time series models tends to decrease with the forecast period (next quarter versus 5 years)
- Forecasts of growth and revisions tend to the highly correlated across analysts.
Propositions About Analyst Growth Rates
- Proposition 1: There is less private information and more public information in analyst forecasts than generally believed.
- Proposition 2: The company itself is the biggest source of private information for analysts, which might explain:
- More buy recommendations than sell recommendations due to information bias and the need to preserve sources.
- The high correlation across analysts' forecasts and revisions.
- All-America analysts becoming better forecasters after being chosen for the team.
- Proposition 3: Knowing analysts' forecasts for earnings growth is valuable, but caution is advised when they agree excessively (lemmingitis) or disagree significantly (noisy information).
Sustainable Growth and Fundamentals
- Fundamental growth rates can be derived from reinvestment and returns on investments.
- The formula for fundamental growth rate is: Growth = Reinvestment Rate * Return on Investment
Expected Long-Term Growth in EPS
- Reinvestment Rate = Retained Earnings / Current Earnings = Retention Ratio
- Return on Investment = ROE = Net Income / Book Value of Equity
- In the special case where the current ROE is expected to remain unchanged gEPS = Retained Earnings t-1/ NI t-1 * ROE
One Way to Pump up ROE: Use More Debt
- Return on Equity = Return on capital + D/E (ROC - i (1-tax rate)) where
- Return on capital = EBIT₁ (1 - tax rate) / Book value of Capitalt-1
- D/E = BV of Debt/ BV of Equity
- i = Interest Expense on Debt / BV of Debt
- In 1998, Brahma (now Ambev) used debt to increase return on equity.
- 1998, Return on Capital = 19.91%
- Debt/Equity Ratio = 77%
- After-tax Cost of Debt = 5.61%
- 1998 Return on Equity = 30.92%
Expected Growth in Net Income from Non-Cash Assets
- Earnings growth can be be obtained by reinvestment in real estate investment
- It can also be obtained by modifying the return on equity definition to exclude cash:
- Net Income from non-cash assets = Net income – Interest income from cash (1-t)
- Equity Reinvestment Rate = = (Net Capital Expenditures + Change in Working Capital) (1 - Debt Ratio)/ Net Income from non-cash assets
- Non-cash ROE = Net Income from non-cash assets/ (BV of Equity – Cash)
- Expected Growth Net Incomeme = Equity Reinvestment Rate * Non-cash ROE
Expected Growth in EBIT and Fundamentals: Stable ROC and Reinvestment Rate
- Reinvestment Rate = (Net Capital Expenditures + Change in WC)/EBIT(1-t)
- Return on Investment = ROC = EBIT(1-t)/(BV of Debt + BV of Equity-Cash)
- Expected Growth rate in Operating Income = (Net Capital Expenditures + Change in WC)/EBIT(1-t) * ROC
- Expected Growth rate in Operating Income = Reinvestment Rate * ROC
- Proposition: The net capital expenditure needs of a firm, for a given growth rate, should be inversely proportional to the quality of its investments.
Estimating Growth When Operating Income Is Negative or Margins Are Changing
- All fundamental growth equations assume a sustainable return on equity or capital in the long term.
- When operating income is negative or margins are expected to change over time, a three-step process is needed:
- Estimate growth rates in revenues over time to see revenue growth, industry economics and competitive advantage
- Estimate expected operating margins each year using target market and adjusting current margins. -Capital needs to be invested to generate revenue growth and estimating a sales to capital ratio.
Revenue Growth
- Market Size and Growth X Market Share determines how much the revenue grows
- Market Size and Growth considerations include: -Current Market size: The size of the market for the company's products & services, given geography it is targeting and product type. -Expected Growth in Market: Growth in total market, as technology and market conditions change.
- Market Share considerations include: -Company's current market share: If company's current market share is low, potential for growth in market share at expense of competition. -Industry economics: Nature of the business ( a few big winners or splintered competition). -Strength of company's competitive advantages: Stronger and more sustainable competitive advantages should allow for higher market share
- The potential for revenue growth is greater for companies with small revenues (and market share) in a big and growing market, especially if the company has strong competitive advantages in winner-take-all businesses.
Sales to Invested Capital: A Pathway to Estimating Reinvestment
- Sales to Invested Capital: Reinvestment -Current (Historical) Sales to Capital = The sales to invested capital ratio relates the revenues of the firm to its invested capital -Future Sales to Capital includes considerations for; scaling effects, excess capacity or the lag between investments
- A company with higher expected growth in revenues will need to reinvest more
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