Global Politics Midterm

Brooks & Wohlforth, ‘The Myth of Multipolarity'

• The world remains closer to unipolarity than bipolarity or multipolarity, with the U.S. as the dominant power.
• The U.S. has become less dominant over the past 20 years, it remains at the top of the global power hierarchy.
• The authors describe the current power distribution as "partial unipolarity," compared to the "total unipolarity" after the Cold War.
• A multipolar system must be shaped by three or more roughly matched states at the top, which isn't the case now.
• Polarity is often measured using military outlays and economic output, yet the system is not multipolar by these metrics and won't be for decades.
• Almost all of the world's "real alliances" bind smaller states to Washington, expanding that alliance system.
• Metrics that properly account for the changes in the economic and security realms dissolve arguments for emergent bipolarity.
• International norms and institutions still constrain revisionist states, but these states are more willing to challenge them.
• The post-Cold War era is characterized as "total unipolarity," with the U.S. standing alone at the top.
• The Cold War era was defined by intense rivalry, arms races, and crises around the globe between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
• Before World War I, many powers claimed to be number one, representing a multipolar system where it wasn't clear who deserved the title.
• The war in Ukraine highlights the dangers and destabilization that can arise without U.S. oversight.
• Authors adopt a realist perspective, focusing on material power, military capabilities, and the distribution of resources among states.
• A clear focus on the United States' role and power, assuming that U.S. leadership is vital for global stability is present.
• Measurable power resources (military spending, economic output) are prioritized over other forms of influence (soft power, diplomacy).
• Despite changing world order talks, the U.S. still holds the most cards.

Shifrinson et al, ‘The Long Unipolar Moment?’

• Unipolarity is an artifact of the past and the United States is no longer the sole dominant power.
• A closer examination of power indicators and assumptions reveals a shift away from U.S. dominance.
• Great powers don't need to be quantitative peers but should have sufficient resources, diplomatic reach, and political acumen to influence other countries.
• Requiring other powers to have rough parity with a leading state is a strange way to define or count poles.
• Throughout history, great powers have never been thought of as quantitative peers.
• The US faces growing geopolitical constraints and counterbalancing pressures.
• Countries do not need to be technological leaders to qualify as leading powers, needing only "good enough" technological material to influence major decisions.
• The EU should be considered a major power and a potential pole.
• States like Austro-Hungarian Empire, Imperial Japan, and the Soviet Union were weaker than the strongest state but could still factor into questions of war and peace.
• India and Japan get a boost due to their diverse economies, favorable geography, and nuclear arsenals or latent capabilities.
• China merits a boost due to its less favorable geography offset by its impressive conventional military and nuclear arsenal.
• Authors challenge the realist perspective by arguing that power is not solely determined by military and economic capabilities.
• Emphasis on the geopolitical constraints and counterbalancing pressures facing the United States is present.
• Authors lean towards a multipolar world view.
• The U.S. isn't the only big player anymore; other countries have enough power to make a difference.

Xia, 'The Weakness of Xi Jinping'

• Despite Xi Jinping's outward confidence, his position is more precarious than it appears.
• Reversing economic reforms, mishandling COVID-19, and creating a cult of personality have alienated party insiders and disappointed supporters.
• Xi has discarded the tradition of collective rule, upsetting many within the party.
• Xi's reversal of economic reforms and ineffective COVID-19 response have damaged his image and disappointed supporters.
• Xi has encouraged a cult of personality, positioning himself as a modern-day emperor.
• Xi is thin-skinned, stubborn, and dictatorial, unwilling to brook criticism.
• Xi acts as "chairman of everything," stifling local initiative crucial for economic development.
• China's economic growth has slowed due to excessive state intervention, U.S. sanctions, the war in Ukraine, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Xi faces opposition from various factions within the party due to reviving Mao's policies, advocating for economic and political reforms, and loyalty towards previous leaders.
• Opponents are focused on preventing Xi from securing a third presidential term.
• Xi's hubris and paranoia led to disastrous decisions, fueled by unchecked power and detachment from reality.
• Collective Rule: Decisions made collectively by a group of leaders.
• Cult of Personality: Creation of an idealized public image through propaganda and control of information.
• Princeling: A member of the Chinese political elite whose parent was a Communist official.
• Standing Committee: The top decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party.
• "Worker-peasant-soldier": Students admitted in the 1970s based on political reliability, not academic merits.
• Xi benefited from his father's connections as a CCP leader.
• An incident where Xi's mother's request for his advancement was revealed, causing embarrassment.
• The arrest of Wang Min based on his chauffeur's statements about complaining about not being promoted.
• Xi's withholding of information and micromanagement of the COVID-19 response led to disastrous consequences.
• Critical of Xi Jinping, portraying him as power-hungry and incompetent.
• The author draws on her experience as a former professor at the Central Party School.
• The author advocates for political and economic reforms within China.
• Xi Jinping's seemingly unshakeable power is threatened by his own hubris and missteps, leading to growing discontent.

Mearsheimer, ‘The Inevitable Rivalry'

• A rivalry between the U.S. and China is inevitable due to the anarchic international system and China's increasing power.
• Great powers are destined to compete due to the absence of a higher authority.
• States seek to become regional hegemons for survival.
• The absence of a higher authority forces states to seek power for survival.
• Great powers aim to become regional hegemons, leading to inevitable competition.
• China's rise challenges the U.S. and spurs a dangerous security competition.
• Rising Chinese nationalism increases the likelihood of conflict.
• The U.S. is determined to contain China, further intensifying the rivalry.
• The U.S.-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War is an example of inevitable great-power competition.
• Skirmishes between China and Japan illustrate the effects of Chinese nationalism.
• Author adopts a realist perspective, emphasizing the structural forces driving great-power competition.
• A pessimistic view suggests that U.S.-China relations inevitably lead to rivalry and conflict.
• The U.S. and China are on a collision course due to the fundamental nature of international politics and China's growing power.

Glaser, 'Fear Factor'

• The article explains the security dilemma and its impact on great power competition, particularly U.S.-China rivalry and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Greed and insecurity can drive states to behave aggressively.
• A state's actions to increase its security can lead other states to feel threatened, resulting in escalation.
• States may be driven by greed (revisionist aims), insecurity (protecting themselves), or a combination of both.
• The perception of whether states prioritize offensive or defensive capabilities affects the intensity of the security dilemma.
• Some see China driven by greed, others by insecurity.
• NATO's eastward expansion is viewed by Russia as a threat to its security, applied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Security Dilemma: Actions intended to heighten security can lead other states to respond with similar measures, producing increased tensions.
• Offense-Defense Balance: The extent to which military technology and strategies favor offensive or defensive actions is key.
• Revisionist State: A state that seeks to alter the existing international order.
• WWI is referenced to show how misjudging the offense-defense balance can lead to catastrophe.
• NATO's eastward expansion is examined through the security dilemma, with Russia perceiving it as a threat.
• Dynamics of Taiwan's relationship with China and the United States are analyzed via for the security dilemma.
• The author emphasizes the importance of the security dilemma.
• The author acknowledges the complexity of states' motivations, including greed and insecurity.
• Great powers often end up in conflict because each one's efforts to feel safe can make the others feel threatened.

Doyle, 'Why They Don't Fight: The Surprising Endurance of the Democratic Peace'

• Democracies are less likely to go to war with one another, a concept known as democratic peace theory.
• The idea traces back to thinkers like Immanuel Kant, who advocated for republican governance, separation of powers, and international cooperation.
• Liberal values, representative government, economic interdependence, and international institutions promote peace.
• Despite the democratic peace, democracies still engage in conflicts with non-democracies.
• The spread of liberal democracy after the Cold War contributed to a period of relative peace.
• The European Union is cited as an example of how democracies can integrate and cooperate to avoid conflict.
• Democracies tend not to fight each other because of shared values, representative governments, and economic ties.

Zelizer, 'The Electoral Cage: Why U.S. Presidents Really Go to War'

• U.S. presidents often make decisions about war and national security based on domestic electoral considerations.
• Presidents are often influenced by upcoming elections when making decisions about military deployments.
• Presidents must balance national interests with political interests, sometimes leading to "suboptimal" decisions.
• Truman's decisions during the Korean War were influenced by fears of appearing weak before the 1950 midterms.
• Johnson delayed escalation in Vietnam until after the 1964 election.
• Bush increased troop presence in Iraq after the 2006 midterms.
• Democracy: Can lead to protracted and indecisive conflicts in war.
• Rational Actor Model: Decision-makers act rationally to maximize their interests.
• Asymmetric Warfare: Conflict between parties of unequal strength.
• Johnson's decisions to delay or intensify involvement in Vietnam were based on electoral calculations.
• Truman's decisions in Korea were influenced by the 1950 midterm elections.
• Obama's decisions to draw down troops in Iraq approached as his reelection campaign.
• Electoral considerations can lead to flawed foreign policy decisions.
• Democracy still ensures leaders are accountable to the electorate.
• Presidents' decisions about war are often influenced by domestic political calculations.

Brooks, 'The Trade Truce?: When Economic Interdependence Does and Doesn't - Promote Peace'

• The relationship between trade and peace is not straightforward; sometimes trade promotes stability, and sometimes it exacerbates tensions.
• Trade can stabilize or destabilize based on the context.
• Globalization can stabilize great powers, while increase conflict among developing countries.
• Cross-border finance has little to no clear effect.
• Enlightenment philosophers thought economic ties made war less likely.
• Other thinkers thought international markets led to conflict.
• Economic engagement with China is viewed as a mistake by some.
• China's economic rise presents both opportunities and challenges for international security.
• France and Germany's economic cooperation in the 1950s was aimed at preventing further conflict.
• Shift from viewing economic engagement with China as beneficial to seeing it as a threat to U.S. security.
• Examples show how Nazis took over factories in Czechoslovakia to enhance their war production.
• Trade and globalization do not automatically lead to peace.
• The relationship between economics and security is multifaceted and context-dependent.
• Economic ties don't always prevent war they can make things worse.

Varrall's "Chinese Worldviews and China's Foreign Policy"

• Chinese worldviews, including historical narratives and cultural values, shape foreign policy.
• Four Key Narratives: Century of Humiliation, Unchanging Cultural Characteristics, History as Destiny, Filial Piety and Familial Obligation.
  • China's perception of its central role in world affairs was weakened by Western incursions (Opium Wars in the 1840s) (Century of Humiliation)
    • This promotes national unity and a strong, unified China
  • China has always been peaceful/non-expansionist vs the US and Japan being hegemonic/imperialistic (Unchanging Cultural Characteristics)
  • China was powerful/peaceful in the past (History as Destiny)
    • This narrative says the CCP is the only agent capable of leading China’s international rejuvenation
  • The state acting as a parental figure. Criticism of China is thus seen as an insult (Filial Piety and Familial Obligation)
    • China is seen as a father figure in Asia by this narrative
• The CCP uses party-state influence to reinforce the narratives to maintain its legitimacy.
• Narratives define parameters within which foreign policy actions are explained/justified
• Narratives aren't the main factors (Xi Jinping and material capabilities also play significant roles)
• Century of Humiliation: A period of foreign intervention and perceived loss of sovereignty.
• Filial Piety: Respect and obedience towards parents and elders (extended to the state in Chinese political culture).
• Party-State: The intertwined structure of the Chinese Communist Party and the governmental institutions in China.
• All Under Heaven: The traditional Chinese concept of world order, with China at the center.
• Chinese actions are seen as a resumption of its rightful place in the region and its acting as a benevolent overseer of the South China Sea
• The focus is on Japan and the danger it represents drawing on historical memory of Japanese Expansionism by referencing East China Sea
• 2012 anti-Japanese protests after the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.
• Varrall aims to give a nuanced understanding Chinese foreign policy.
• Narratives are not the only drivers, but they emphasized with high value.
• Combination of narratives, cultural relief and strategic interests drives foreign policy.

Hung, "Disintegrating US-China Economic Symbiosis and the New Inter-Imperial Rivalry”

• The shift led by the disposition of U.S. corporations toward China and the resulting inter-capitalist competition drives rivalry from US and China
• U.S. establishment supported with China's authoritarian system (H.W. Bush's letter to Deng Xiaoping after the Tiananmen Square massacre prioritized the commercial relationship over ideological concerns)
• U.S. corporate lobbying impeded inclinations to frame China as a major competitor (Clinton admin maintained the policy with China)
• A shift in corporate America's disposition is influencing US-China Policy
• China is an inter-imperial rivalry fueled by inter-capitalist competition for the world market, potentially leading to clashes of spheres of influence and even war (mirrors Linen, early 20th century with Germany+British banks)
• Who wins next election won't change dynamics (U.S.-China rivalry), however Administration's will continue
• Progressive forces have two options induce a defeat/establish a united front: (progressives options)
• Historical Materialist Explanation: Emphasizes material conditions/economic factors as the primary drivers of political and economic change
• Inter-Imperial Rivalry: The current US-China rivalry is an inter-imperial rivalry fueled, potentially leading to clashes of spheres of influence/even war. this is an economic based power conflict
• President Bush's (1989) illustrated U.S. to authoritarianism.
• Clinton Administration's China Policy: Initially driven by human rights concerns corporate priorities/engaging with China, but later influenced.
• Compare to early 20th compete (german and British lands for latin america).
• Critical Perspective: the US and China relationship (economic competition and what corporation
• Materialistic len
  • Corporate force
• US/China rivalry. ideology, history-shifting in US/ resemble the historical.

Marxism

• Analyzes the impact of capitalism in class relations, social class etc
• Society divides into classes with conflict (bourgeoise)
• Marxism to communist society = overthrown.
• Critical/ Historical views on how it will overthrow.
• Marxism = foreign in areas and state controls and exploiting.
• Marx = inequality and social change.
• Criticism = deterministic views/ communism states stated ideals
• Weak can suffer what they must
• Strengths = economic equality
• Weakness = failed states communism, history
• Key terms: Bourgeoise Prolénétant
• "World will unlte/ nothing will lose in chains"

Realism

• Realism

  • Definition: States are primary action in international actions
  • Self-interested, constantly seek to have more power that others
  • Focuses on power is most effective and intentions are uncertain.

• Contrast Liberal power to balance power

• Realist world view of the way think through international politics will work.

• Thucydides = power politics, what states pursue power

• Morgenthau = Classic real, national interest power

• Balance of power is key concept: power is key/ Weakers take force to a power.

• (States make more that threaten).

• Great for clear explanation what to do not overlook the operation factors can play.

• "The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must"

Liberalism

• Definition = emphasizes and the rules with individual rights in international reactions with non states to the
  • Individual fights and peace is how
  • They can mutually benefit from cooperation not the state actions =
  • Individual rights
  • Key terms-non states/ democracy, IGO, NGO
• international system is for conflicted Liberalism is power can change to international systems.
  • Marxism = Critiques in power, legal equality
• European can be peace through international organizations
• Democratic theory - with each other more or less war in one to another.
  • In a long time through European integration to one
  • Power is very idealistic but understanding or very estimates the power of politics
  • "As in Europe is freedom and one another"

Constructivism-Definition

• It emphasis the role of ideas that help shape the internal nations of it and arges that it can change or be influenced socially
  • social norms
  • Example = world peace, or lack of
  • Constructivism/ socializations in internal politics
  • Realism = can’t take interest in takes/ subject to change.
  • The English can agree-shred values/non-threats.
  • They can have a common understanding of world and historical context through narratives. -Strengths: Understands different things/ states and ideals -Weakness: It can be very relativistic and take away preductions

Definitions

• Actor: Decisions repercussions
• Nations: Culture and history
• Self-determination: Rights divide political
• States: Soverign/ flow and people
• Governing - specific actions
• Absolute right: without highest auth
• Peace: ended with treates
• Potential power/measured/ behavior.
• Desire outcomes
• Coercion: Threats behaviors
• Measured. behaviors pay
  • The -power distribution power give up at given time for any system from any system.
• Interact relation with states for a relation ship
• Systems the two states
• The world is 1 one ​- systems, that more there is
• Individual level of analysis: Examining specific decision-makers or human nature in general to understand international relations.
• State level of analysis: Analyzing domestic politics, domestic society, or the machinery of government to understand international relations.
• Systemic level of analysis: Focusing on the structure of the international system, such as the balance of power or anarchy, to understand international relations.
• Rational cost-benefit analysis: Decision-makers calculate that benefits are greater than costs.
• Cognitive psychology: Examines the processes by which people seek to make sense of raw information about the world by looking for commonalities between what they are trying to make sense of and things they already know or believe.
• Motivational psychologists: Explain human behavior in terms of deep-seated psychological fears, desires, and needs, such as self-esteem, social approval, and a sense of efficacy.
• Prospect theory: People take much greater risks to avoid losses than they would be willing to take to achieve gains.
• Psychobiography: Not defined in the sources.
  • Realism: Core realist beliefs include:
    • States are the primary actors in the international system.
    • States are self-interested, prioritize survival above all else, and seek to maximize power and security.
    • The international system is anarchical and a 'self-help' system.
    • Other states' intentions are uncertain, leading to fear.
    • Force is often the most effective instrument.
• Self-help system: In an anarchical international system, states cannot rely on others for their security and must prioritize their own survival.
• Deterrence: The threat must be sufficiently severe and credible.
• Balance of power: War is less likely when power is balanced evenly because equally powerful states can deter each other from aggression.
• Balance of power theory: Weaker states will join against a rising power.
  • China and the United States to offer credits to countries for infrastructure development (Belt and Road Initative)
• South China Sea: China's actions in the South China Sea reflect narratives of resuming its natural rise and an extended family of regional countries.
• Taiwan: The United States can more easily deter a Chinese attack on its mainland or on its Australian or Japanese allies than it can a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of China.
• Geopolitics: Location and proximity are important determinants of state behavior. For example, wars are more likely between neighbors.
• Security dilemma: States take actions meant to make them more secure, but these actions make other states less secure, leading those states to take actions to secure themselves.
• Russia, Ukraine, and NATO: Some analysts see NATO's eastward expansion as a security dilemma for Russia, provoking a sense of threat and insecurity.
• Thucydides: A historical figure (460-395 BC).
• The Peloponnesian War: Not specifically defined in the sources.
• Thucydides’s trap: The dynamic where a rising power threatens to displace an existing power, increasing the risk of conflict.
• Melian Dialogue: Not defined in the sources.
• Classical Realism: All three levels of analysis (individual, state, systemic) matter. However, the human drive for power and dominance is the primary source of state behavior. (appeard in the 1930s)
• Neo-Realism: Only the systemic level of analysis matters (e.g., anarchy, distribution of power). (emerged in 1979)
• Defensive Realism: A strand of Neorealism where states maximize security and try to have an appropriate amount of power for their security.
• Offensive Realism: A strand of Neorealism where states maximize power. (Neorealism strand)
• Kenneth Waltz: Creditied with inventing Neorealism
• Game Theory: It models the behaviors of rational, self-interested actors (originated in math)
• Prisoners’ Dilemma: Cooperation can be very difficult even if everyone is rational (rational beaviors if systeic)
• Bipolarity vs. Multipolarity: Bipolarity is more peaceful because balancing is more efficient, whereas multipolarity is more peaceful because deterrence is easier
• Woodrow Wilson: U.S. President who called for the removal of all economic barriers and the establishment of an equality of trade conditions as part of his blueprint for world peace.(U.S Persiddent who called for all economic barriers )
• Why Realism's popularity declined: liberal
• Putnam’s two-level game theory (Foreign policy)
• 3 Definitive arts for perpetuity "The Civil Constitution of Every State Should Be Republican [democrat The Law of Nations Shall be Founded on a Federation of Free States" [Liberal/ Intl instritutions _ "The Law of World Citizenship Shall Be Limited to Conditions of Universal Hospitality" [Trade]
• Democtrat Peace thereom
• Internationat intuatuitin: kant argue d free state
• Free trade kant -world limited howspialtiony
• contructaviosn not defomd
• The agente Structiure MAtarxisnm not defunwd CHINE
• KARL MArks
• the bourigousion Vladimir -lenina