Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates
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Questions and Answers

What is one of the measures included in an austerity package to cure a financial crisis?

  • Promote wage increases
  • Lower interest rates
  • Increase government spending
  • Devaluate the currency (correct)

What does contagion in financial terms refer to?

  • Successful international trade relationships
  • Reduction of investment risk
  • A stable economic growth across nations
  • Propagation of shocks exceeding fundamentals (correct)

What consequence did the depreciation of the Thai Baht have during the Asian Flu?

  • Increased investments in Thailand
  • Stabilized the Asian economy
  • Boosted investor confidence in Asia
  • Investors withdrew funds from Asia (correct)

What was one of the initial actions taken in Brazil's Real Plan?

<p>Cut current government spending (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which event is credited with causing a lack of confidence in the cruzeiro in Brazil?

<p>Political corruption leading to a presidency change (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is there a need for international financial support during a contagion?

<p>To provide credible announcements (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of inflation did Brazil experience in the early 1990s?

<p>3,000% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a significant feature of the Real Plan established in Brazil?

<p>Pegging the new currency to the US dollar (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to nominal variables in the long run according to the classical dichotomy?

<p>They are impacted by monetary shocks. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to expectations when the money supply increases permanently?

<p>Expectations shift permanently. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the short run, which interest rate is affected by monetary policy changes?

<p>Real interest rate (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the asset approach, what is the initial effect of an increase in the money supply on real returns?

<p>Real returns on assets decrease. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is true about nominal exchange rates after a monetary shock?

<p>They are among the most volatile variables. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is meant by the term 'overshooting' in the context of exchange rates?

<p>The initial adjustment of exchange rates is more pronounced than the long-run equilibrium. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the effect of a sterilization policy by a central bank?

<p>It limits the effect of capital inflows and outflows on the money supply. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which model does not exhibit overshooting due to its backward nature?

<p>Mundell-Fleming model (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the Euro area, what type of policy is the ECB likely to implement during economic slowdown?

<p>Active permanent monetary policy (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

After a permanent increase in the money supply, what happens to nominal interest rates?

<p>They decrease, then increase back to previous levels. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the immediate result on the money supply when the monetary policy shifts to the right on the IS-MP graph?

<p>Money supply shifts to the right. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement regarding capital flows under fixed exchange rates is accurate?

<p>Outflow of reserves leads to a contraction of the money supply. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What indicates that exchange rates are very volatile according to the discussion?

<p>Significant adjustments based on expected changes. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected change in interest rates when the ECB adopts an expansionary monetary policy?

<p>Interest rates decrease. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the price level as a result of a permanent increase in the money supply?

<p>Price level increases over time. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the consequence of an increase in the nominal money supply on the exchange rate?

<p>Exchange rate increases initially before stabilizing. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the nominal interest rate after an increase in the level of the money supply in the long run?

<p>It remains unchanged. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the aggregate price level respond to an increase in the money supply in the long run?

<p>It increases. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the result of differences in adjustment processes in different markets regarding the exchange rate?

<p>There is an overshooting of the exchange rate. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is it difficult to forecast the exchange rate after a change in economic policy?

<p>Due to exchange rate volatility. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What occurs under a fixed exchange rate when the overshooting effect is translated through changes in reserve?

<p>The country experiences a currency crisis. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the 'impossible trinity' concept imply?

<p>Only two out of three of exchange rate stability, capital mobility, and monetary policy can be controlled at the same time. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do monetary restriction policies fare under flexible versus fixed exchange rates?

<p>More efficient when the exchange rate is flexible. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Does a monetary expansion impact the real and nominal exchange rates in the long run?

<p>Does not always impact both rates. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected outcome of an increase in the domestic money supply in the short run?

<p>Depreciation of the domestic currency (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the Fisher's rule, how are the domestic inflation rate and foreign inflation rate related to domestic and foreign interest rates?

<p>The difference in inflation rates equals the difference in interest rates (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What occurs in the long run after an increase in the money supply according to the classical dichotomy?

<p>Prices adjust such that money demand equals money supply (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What assumption was made regarding exchange rate expectations in the discussion of overshooting?

<p>Exchange rate expectations are constant (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to interest rates immediately after an increase in the US money supply in the short run?

<p>Interest rates decrease (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does an informed investor expect when the money supply increases and they revise their expectations?

<p>An upward shift of the UIP (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If monetary policy is not efficient in the long run, what can be concluded about price adjustment?

<p>Prices adjust completely and quickly (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of exchange rates, what does UIP stand for?

<p>Uncovered Interest Parity (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the dollar ($) if the money supply in the US increases at the actual exchange rate?

<p>The dollar depreciates. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the money supply in the Eurozone increases, what effect does it have on the dollar's value?

<p>The dollar appreciates. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the monetary approach of the balance of payments, how is the exchange rate determined?

<p>As a consequence of monetary policy. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the monetary approach of exchange rates, what does the exchange rate equal when assuming Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds?

<p>The price level of domestic goods to foreign goods. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does tightening monetary policy have on the exchange rate in the short run when prices are fixed?

<p>The exchange rate appreciates. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the relationship between money supply and money demand at equilibrium in the money market?

<p>Money supply equals money demand. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the impact of monetary policy on the interest rate in the short run?

<p>Interest rates are influenced by the demand and supply of money. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the effective exchange rate when monetary policy changes but expectations remain unchanged?

<p>It does not change at equilibrium. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Long-term Impact of Money Supply on Nominal Interest Rate

The long-term effect of a change in the money supply on the nominal interest rate is negligible. The interest rate returns to its original level, meaning that the impact is temporary.

Long-term Impact of Money Supply on Price Level

In the long run, an increase in the money supply leads to a proportionate increase in the price level. This reflects the classical dichotomy, where real variables are unaffected by changes in the money supply in the long run.

Long-term Impact of Money Supply on Exchange Rates

A change in the money supply affects both the actual and expected exchange rates in the long run. This is because the real exchange rate adjusts to maintain purchasing power parity.

Exchange Rate Overshooting

The exchange rate overshoots its long-run equilibrium value following a change in the money supply due to differences in adjustment speeds across markets. This is a short-term phenomenon that eventually corrects itself.

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Monetary Policy under Fixed Exchange Rate (Long Run)

Monetary policies are less effective in the long run when the exchange rate is fixed because the classical dichotomy holds. Real variables are unaffected by changes in the money supply.

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Monetary Policy under Fixed Exchange Rate (Short Run)

Monetary policies are less effective in the short run when the exchange rate is fixed. The central bank loses control over the money supply because of its commitment to maintain the fixed exchange rate.

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Monetary Expansion and Exchange Rates (Long Run)

Expansionary monetary policy always affects both the real and nominal exchange rates in the long run because it influences relative prices and the trade balance

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Monetary Expansion and Exchange Rates (Short Run)

In the short run, a change in the money supply can affect the real and nominal exchange rates depending on the type of change, the initial equilibrium and the specific conditions in the economy.

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Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments (MABoP)

Directly links changes in money supply to exchange rate movements. Assumes money market equilibrium determines interest rates, and these influence exchange rate through the UIP condition.

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Dornbusch-Fisher Model

A model where the exchange rate adjusts instantaneously to changes in monetary policy, with no time lags or dynamics.

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Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)

States that the expected return on an asset in one currency should equal the expected return on a similar asset in another currency adjusted for the expected exchange rate change.

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Monetary Tightening and Exchange Rate

The increase in domestic interest rates caused by a contractionary monetary policy leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency.

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Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

The relationship between the prices of goods in different countries, adjusted by the exchange rate. It suggests that the prices of identical goods should be the same in different countries after taking into account the exchange rate.

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Equilibrium Exchange Rate

The exchange rate determined by the equilibrium in the money market, where supply and demand for money balance.

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Short Run Exchange Rate Adjustment

A situation in the short run where prices are fixed and exchange rates adjust to reflect changes in monetary policy.

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Long Run Exchange Rate Adjustment

In the long run, prices adjust to changes in money supply, and the exchange rate reflects these changes in the price level.

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Contagion (Financial Crisis)

The spread of economic shocks beyond what can be explained by economic fundamentals. It's like a domino effect where a crisis in one country triggers similar problems in others.

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Austerity Package

Actions taken to reduce government spending and control inflation. This often involves cuts to public programs and a tighter monetary policy.

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International Financial Support (IFS)

A situation where international organizations provide assistance to a country facing a financial crisis. This can involve loans, technical support, and other forms of aid.

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Moral Hazard

A situation where a government or financial institution takes on more risk because they believe they will be bailed out if things go wrong. This can lead to reckless behavior.

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Asian Flu Contagion

The depreciation of the currency of a country (for example, the Thai Baht) leading to investors withdrawing their investments from other countries in the region (for example, all of Asia).

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Real Plan (Brazil)

A drastic economic plan implemented in Brazil in 1994 to stabilize the currency and control rampant inflation (3000% per year). It involved fixing prices and wages, controlling money supply, and pegging the Real to the US dollar.

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Lender of Last Resort (Preventing Global Crisis)

A situation where an international financial system is designed to prevent global crises. This might lead to governments and banks taking more risks, as they rely on being rescued in case of trouble.

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Currency Crisis (Example: Brazil 1998)

The rapid decline in the value of a country's currency, typically caused by a loss of confidence in the country's economy or its ability to repay its debts.

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Mundell-Fleming Model

A model that assumes fixed exchange rates and perfect capital mobility. It analyzes how changes in monetary and fiscal policy affect the economy.

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Adjustment Process

The adjustment process where the exchange rate initially overshoots the long-term equilibrium and then gradually converges back. This occurs after a shock to the money supply.

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Asset Approach

The model that considers the interaction of the asset market and the money market to determine the exchange rate. It acknowledges that investors' expectations about the future influence the current exchange rate.

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Expected Exchange Rate (Ee)

The exchange rate based on the expectations of market participants about the future exchange rate.

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Exchange Rate (E)

The rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another, influenced by factors like interest rate differentials and market expectations.

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Short-Run Money Supply & Exchange Rate

In the short run, an increase in the domestic money supply causes the domestic currency to depreciate.

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Fisher's Rule

This rule states that the difference in inflation rates between two countries equals the difference in their nominal interest rates.

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Long-Run Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness

In the long run, monetary policy becomes ineffective for influencing real variables due to the complete adjustment of prices to changes in the money supply.

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Constant Exchange Rate Expectations

An assumption that expectations about the future exchange rate are constant, meaning traders don't anticipate changes in the expected future exchange rate.

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Classical Dichotomy

The idea that only changes in real factors (like productivity or technology) affect real variables like output or employment in the long run; changes in the money supply only affect prices.

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Price Adjustment

The adjustment of prices to changes in the money supply, resulting in no real economic effect in the long run.

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What is the Classical Dichotomy?

The Classical Dichotomy states that in the long run, only nominal variables are impacted by monetary changes. It means that the real economy is unaffected by changes in the money supply.

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How does monetary policy affect the real interest rate in the short run?

In the short run, an increase in the money supply leads to a decrease in the real interest rate. This happens because the increase in money supply lowers the cost of borrowing, stimulating investment and economic activity.

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Why is the nominal exchange rate volatile after a monetary shock?

A monetary shock can cause significant fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate, especially in the short run. This is due to investor reactions and expectations about future exchange rate movements.

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What is Sterilization policy?

Sterilization is a policy used by central banks to offset the impact of foreign currency inflows or outflows on the domestic money supply. This involves buying or selling domestic assets to maintain a target level of liquidity.

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What are the limits of Sterilization policy?

Sterilization can temporarily control the impact of foreign currency inflows or outflows, but it cannot be sustained indefinitely. Changing the composition of assets alters the risk profile, affecting the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) and the yield curve.

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How does a loss of reserves affect the money supply under a fixed exchange rate?

Under a fixed exchange rate regime, a loss of foreign reserves leads to a contraction in the money supply. This is because the central bank needs to sell domestic assets to defend the fixed exchange rate, reducing the overall money supply.

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What are the potential policies of the ECB to stimulate economic activity?

An expansionary monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) would involve lowering interest rates and increasing the money supply. This could stimulate economic activity in the Euro area.

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How would an expansionary ECB policy affect the euro exchange rate?

The ECB's expansionary monetary policy would likely lead to an appreciation of the Euro's exchange rate. This is because the lower interest rates would make holding Euros less attractive to investors, potentially leading to a decrease in demand for other currencies and an appreciation of the Euro.

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Study Notes

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates

  • Monetary policy's impact on exchange rates is dynamic, not immediate.
  • Changes in money supply affect interest rates, impacting the return on assets denominated in different currencies leading to currency appreciation or depreciation (UIP).
  • Money market equilibrium is determined by money supply and demand. This gives an equilibrium interest rate which is related to exchange rates.
  • Relative Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the Interest Rate Parity (IRP) are factors in how exchange rates are impacted. The exchange rate is linked to monetary policy through the money market.
  • In the short run (fixed prices), a tighter monetary policy leads to currency appreciation.
  • In the long run (adjusting prices), monetary policy has no effect on the exchange rate.
  • Overshooting of exchange rates occurs when the initial reaction to a change in monetary policy exceeds the long-run equilibrium value due to expectations.

Overshooting of Exchange Rates

  • Exchange rate changes are more volatile than other variables.
  • Exchange rate overshooting is driven by expectations and the effect on prices.
  • In the Dornbusch-Fisher model, expectations play a substantial role in the overshooting phenomenon.
  • A change in monetary policy affects real variables, but in the long run, only nominal variables are impacted.
  • The overshooting effect implies that short-run fluctuations in exchange rates are larger than long-run equilibrium adjustments.
  • The long-run effects of monetary policy on exchange rates will primarily differ in adjustment in prices and not nominal variables.

Impossible Trinity

  • Independent monetary policy, free capital movements, and fixed exchange rate cannot all be simultaneously maintained.
  • Countries choosing fixed exchange rates must forgo either independent monetary policy or free capital movement.

Currency Crises

  • Currency crises happen with high volatility as a result of pegged or fixed exchange rates.
  • Currency crisis involves a devaluation or abandonment of the pegged rate.
  • Currency crises can be precipitated by factors like unsustainable macroeconomic policies, speculative attacks, and contagion.
  • Banking and financial crises often occur with currency crises.
  • The global financial crisis of 2008 was a prime example of crises that affected both banking and financial markets.
  • Policy actions used to respond to currency crises often involve stabilizing the currency, restoring investor confidence, and fixing underlying macroeconomic problems.

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Description

Explore the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rates in this quiz. Understand how factors like money supply and interest rates influence currency appreciation and depreciation. Learn about concepts such as Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity and their effects on exchange rate dynamics.

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