Core Human Population 4.2 Demographic transition

• Birth and death rates change over time, and generalizations can be made about population growth since the mid-18th century
• The model of demographic transition illustrates these generalizations, based on the experience of north-west Europe

Model of Demographic Transition (Figure 4.18)

• Stage 1 (High Fluctuating): High and stable crude birth rate, high and fluctuating crude death rate
• Population growth is very slow, with potential for decline, high infant mortality, low life expectancy
• High proportion of the population is under 15
• Pre-industrial society, rural, dependent on subsistence agriculture
• Stage 2 (Early Expanding): Death rate declines significantly, birth rate remains at previous level
• Rate of natural change increases to a peak, infant mortality falls, life expectancy increases
• Proportion of population under 15 increases
• Causal factors: better nutrition, improved public health (clean water, sewerage), medical advances
• Rural-to-urban migration occurs
• Stage 3 (Late Expanding): Social norms adjust, birth rate declines
• Urbanization slows, average age increases, life expectancy continues to increase, infant mortality decreases
• Countries in this stage usually experience lower death rates than nations in the final stage, due to their relatively young population structures
• Stage 4 (Low Fluctuating): Low birth and death rates, former generally slightly higher
• Population growth is slow
• Death rates rise slightly as the average age of the population increases, but life expectancy still improves
• Stage 5 (Natural Decrease): Birth rate falls below death rate, resulting in natural decrease
• Populations decline without net migration inflows
• Most countries are in eastern or southern Europe

Real-World Application of the Model

• No country retains all characteristics of stage 1; it applies to remote societies
• HICs are in stages 4 or 5, having experienced all previous stages

Criticisms of the Model

• Critics view the model as too Eurocentric (based on Western Europe)
• May not be relevant to other countries
• Many LICs may not follow the sequence
• Fails to consider changes due to migration
• Assumes all countries will pass through all stages (like the HICs)

Demographic Transition in LICs

• Birth rates in stages 1 and 2 were generally higher in LICs
• Death rate fell much more steeply and for different reasons (e.g., Western medicine)
• AIDS has caused the death rate to rise significantly in some countries
• Populations were larger
• Decline has been steeper in stage 3
• Relationship between population change and economic development has been tenuous

Alternative Models

• The Czech demographer Pavlik recognized two alternative types of population change
• France: Birth rate fell simultaneously with death rate, no intermediate period of high natural increase
• Japan and Mexico: Birth rate actually increased in stage 2 due to improved health of women in reproductive age range

Demographic Indices Over Time

• Figure 4.22 illustrates changes in birth/death rates in England and Wales between 1700 and 2000
• Infant mortality is a key measure of socio-economic development

Ageing Populations

• Population ageing is a rise in the median age of a population
• Occurs when fertility declines while life expectancy remains constant or increases
• Global average for life expectancy increased from 46 years in 1950 to 71 in 2014, projected to reach 76 by 2050
• In LICs, the population aged 60 years and over is expected to quadruple between 2000 and 2050

Regional Variations

• Europe is the 'oldest' region but Japan is the oldest nation with a median age of 45 years
• Africa is the 'youngest' region with proportion of children (under 15) at 41 per cent
• The proportion of older people in Africa is projected to increase from 5 per cent to 10 per cent by 2050

Economic Impact

• Demographic ageing puts pressure on healthcare systems, public pensions, and government budgets
• Demographic ageing is progressing faster in MICs and LICs
• The fastest-growing segment of the population is the "oldest-old" (85+ years) - more likely to need expensive residential care

Positive Aspects of Ageing

• Many older people contribute to childcare by looking after grandchildren
• Large numbers of older people work as volunteers

Country Case Study: Japan

• Most rapidly ageing population
• 33 per cent of Japan's people are over the age of 60
• World's oldest population with a median age of 46 years
• Population peaked between 2005 and 2010 at 128 million
• Extreme projection predicts a decline of 50 million by the end of this century
• Fertility has declined substantially and the total fertility rate is an extremely low 1.4
• No other country has a lower percentage of its population under 15 (13 per cent)

Youthful Populations

• Rapid population growth results in a large young dependent population (under 15 years)
• Table 4.10 shows the worldwide average of 26 per cent is the average population under 15. The 41 per cent for Africa is over two and a half times higher than the figure for Europe
• These countries must allocate resources to health, education, food, water, and housing
• May lead to introducing family planning policies to reduce birth rates

Potential benefits

• A large working population if enough jobs are created
• The Large working populations will generates taxes to improve quality of life

Case study: The Gambia

• Rapid population growth results in resources demands and limited family planning programs, and cultural practices that limit family size.
• Physical Geography - Landlocked countries and small island countries face limitations in development, but generous natural resources spur development
• Economic -Open economies that welcomed foreign investment and high savings rates have boosted developed faster
• Demographic- progress through demographic transtion has the highest rates of economic growth experienced
• Human development index - HDI for developed countries measure the expected years of schooling for those who completed, the mean level of schooling, the life expectancy, and the gross national income

Human Development Index

• HDI contains life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling for adults aged 25 years
• HDI includes expected years of schooling for children of school entering age
• HDI includes GNI per person (PPP)

Top countries for human development

• Shows very strong link between rate of population growth and level of economic development

The waterfront, US & Human development

• Shows the waterfront district, US has high level of human development

Fishing village in Papua New Guinea & Human development

• Shows fishing villages in Papua New Guinea have low human development country

Infant Mortality Rates

• This can be impacted by conditions, economic climate, healthcare policies and infrastructure improvements
• This includes nutrition, health, medical advances, housing and maternity conditions

Life Expectancy Changes

• Levels of mortality and increase in life expectations has boosted economic/social development
• Global scale, 75% of the total improvement in longevity in achieved in the 20th/early 21st century
• The provision of water in villages improves life expectancy