15 Questions
Based on the data provided, what is the average cyclical variation for quarter three?
51.67
What is the actual predicted sales forecast for quarter three 2016?
267,670
What is the average cyclical variation for quarter one?
-33.4
What is the difference between the moving average and the actual figures in the first quarter of 2014?
42.5
What is one of the limitations of quantitative sales forecasting mentioned in the text?
The past is always a good indication of the future.
What should be considered in addition to historical data for accurate forecasts?
External environment
What is the potential impact of significant external factors on forecast accuracy?
Decreased accuracy
What is the relationship between the accuracy of forecasts and the time into the future they predict?
Accuracy decreases
Which technique is used to establish an average for a full quarter period in four quarter moving averages?
Centering
What is the purpose of using four quarter moving averages?
To analyze sales data between seasons or quarters
How is the moving average for the centered quarter determined?
By dividing the total sales for eight quarters by 8
What is the purpose of plotting the four quarter moving average line along with the raw sales data?
To visualize trends and patterns
What adjustment can be made to account for cyclical variations in sales forecasts?
Calculating the average variation between the moving average line and the actual sales data
What does calculating the average variation between the moving average line and the actual sales data help determine?
The reasonableness of a forecast based solely on the moving average
What additional adjustments may be necessary in sales forecasts?
Adjustments for quarters consistently above or below the average
Study Notes
Using Four Quarter Moving Averages for Sales Forecasting
- Time series analysis is being used to calculate sales forecasts using four quarter moving averages.
- Four quarter moving averages are helpful for analyzing sales data between seasons or quarters and identifying cyclical or seasonal variations.
- In order to establish an average for a full quarter period, a technique called centering is used.
- Centering involves calculating the total sales for four quarters and aligning it with the middle of the third quarter.
- By dividing the total sales for eight quarters by 8, the moving average for the centered quarter can be determined.
- The process of centering and calculating moving averages is repeated for subsequent quarters to generate a four quarter moving average line.
- The four quarter moving average line is then plotted along with the raw sales data to visualize trends and patterns.
- To make sales forecasts, a line of best fit is drawn through the four quarter moving average line and extrapolated.
- However, it is important to consider cyclical and seasonal variations when making forecasts.
- Adjustments for cyclical variations can be made by calculating the average variation between the moving average line and the actual sales data.
- This average variation helps in determining whether a forecast based solely on the moving average is reasonable.
- Further adjustments may be necessary to account for quarters that are consistently above or below the average.
Test your knowledge on using four quarter moving averages for sales forecasting with this quiz. Learn about the process of centering, calculating moving averages, and visualizing trends. Explore how to make sales forecasts and make adjustments for cyclical and seasonal variations.
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