Islamic Terrorism in Mozambique

Study Notes

Islamic terrorism has been a threat to Eastern and Southern Africa since the 1990s.
Mozambican government has utilized various approaches to combat Islamic terrorism, ranging from military intervention to socioeconomic policies.
Cabo Delgado Province, bordering Tanzania, has seen a significant spread of radicalized Islamism without specific government countermeasures.
The study examines the Mozambican government's risk prevention and management strategy in Cabo Delgado.
During Guebuza's second term as Head of State, Mozambique faced three potential threats, but the government prioritised Somali piracy in the Mozambique Channel and Renamo's actions, neglecting potential Islamic terrorist threats in Cabo Delgado.
This choice was driven by the government's political and patrimonial interests, and local civil society lacked the capacity to resist.
The neglect allowed radical Islamic groups to grow unchecked. Violence escalated in Cabo Delgado, with attacks beginning in October 2017, which Mozambique has yet to effectively counter.
Mozambique has a history of religious tolerance and a diverse religious landscape (Christians, Muslims, and traditional religions).

Mozambique's high level of religious tolerance is a key characteristic.
A civil war, between Frelimo and Renamo, lasted from 1976-1992 and continues indirectly today. No religious motivations were present.
The study observes Mozambican strategies regarding religious issues at different historical periods.
During the socialist era (1975-1990), religious practices were restricted, with the state nationalizing religious properties and persecuting traditional religious figures.
There was an effort to cultivate a positive relationship with the Islamic community. However, a split occurred within the Islamic Council of Mozambique in 1983.

Mozambican government's response to the rise of Islamic terrorism in Cabo Delgado in the 2010s is examined, highlighting the lack of effective countermeasures.
The study suggests that the government's failure to recognize the threat stemmed from a combination of factors including fragility of the state, political and patrimonial considerations and the lack of public resistance.
The approach taken included a strategy of risk management.
The analysis emphasizes vulnerabilities of the state structure.
The risk perception is low because of other security concerns (e.g. Renamo and piracy in the Mozambique Channel). This prioritized the other two threats over the more recent Islamic terrorism.

The study uses a political risk approach for analyzing the Mozambican government's actions.
The study attempts to move away from a positivist perspective, instead taking a comprehensive approach to understanding the complex interconnectedness between different social actors.

The research relied on qualitative methods including literature review, interviews with various relevant stakeholders, including within the intelligence services, military, and police forces in Mozambique.
A Muslim preacher with ties to Islamic groups in the North was also interviewed for additional insights.
All oral sources provided their information under the condition of anonymity.

The Mozambican State's approach to risk management regarding Islamic terrorism in Cabo Delgado is evaluated.
The study highlights several weaknesses in the strategy.
Gaps in counterterrorism or insurgency capability within the country is also discussed.
Mozambique's case study is contrasted with Kenya's approach to similar threats to show how international military and intelligence cooperation can prove effective.

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