IS Curve and Aggregate Demand

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Questions and Answers

According to the IS curve framework, what component of aggregate expenditure is typically MOST sensitive to changes in the interest rate?

  • Consumption
  • Government purchases
  • Net exports
  • Investment (correct)

How does an increase in the interest rate typically affect net exports, according to the IS curve model?

  • Increases due to cheaper domestic goods.
  • Remains unchanged as net exports are independent of interest rates.
  • Decreases due to a stronger domestic currency. (correct)
  • Increases due to a weaker domestic currency.

In the context of the IS curve, what is the primary effect of decreased consumer confidence on aggregate expenditure and the IS curve?

  • Shift to the right, increasing aggregate expenditure.
  • Movement along the curve, decreasing aggregate expenditure.
  • Shift to the left, decreasing aggregate expenditure. (correct)
  • No effect, as consumer confidence is not a component of the IS curve.

What does a movement along the IS curve represent?

<p>Changes in the interest rate. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factor would cause the IS curve to shift to the right?

<p>An increase in export demand. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the content, what is the central bank able to directly influence by adjusting the money supply?

<p>The nominal policy rate in the overnight money market. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the central bank's inflation target is 2% and current inflation is 3%, what monetary policy action is MOST likely, according to the monetary policy rule?

<p>Increase the nominal interest rate. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the 'risk premium' primarily compensate lenders for in bond markets?

<p>The risk of default by the borrower. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What economic factor does the 'term spread' measure?

<p>The difference between interest rates on long-term and short-term government bonds. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How would an increase in global GDP growth typically affect a country's net exports, assuming other factors remain constant?

<p>Increase net exports by increasing foreign demand. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the IS-MP model, what is the effect of discretionary fiscal policy stimulus?

<p>It shifts the IS curve to the right (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the IS-MP model framework, what is the MOST likely initial effect of expansionary monetary policy?

<p>A shift of the MP curve downward. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the MOST likely effect of a credit crunch on the liquidity premium?

<p>It increases the liquidity premium due to higher demand for liquid funds. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What signifies a situation where the central bank decreases the interest rate below the neutral rate?

<p>Inflation is below the central bank's target. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How might decreased business confidence impact the IS curve?

<p>Shift the IS curve to the left. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If investors expect interest rates to be higher in the future, how will that impact longer-term rates?

<p>Longer-term rates will increase. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which action would MOST directly counteract the effects of a financial shock that decreases aggregate demand?

<p>Increasing government spending. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does an increase in government assistance typically affect the IS curve?

<p>It shifts the IS curve to the right. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect do automatic stabilizers primarily have on the economy?

<p>They automatically counteract economic fluctuations. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What name is used to describe the effect, where increased saving leads to a fall in aggregate demand and output?

<p>The paradox of thrift. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the IS curve framework, which component of aggregate expenditure is generally considered to have the LEAST sensitivity to changes in the interest rate?

<p>Government purchases (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the central bank sets the nominal policy rate ($i^{PR}$), and expected inflation ($\pi^e$) rises, what happens to the real interest rate (r), assuming the nominal rate remains unchanged?

<p>The real interest rate decreases. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the likely impact of increased risk aversion among lenders on the risk premium?

<p>The risk premium will increase. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the 'term spread' calculated?

<p>The difference between short-term and long-term government bond yields. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the effect on the IS curve of changes in consumer confidence?

<p>A shift of the IS curve. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the central bank directly control when fine-tuning the money supply within overnight money markets?

<p>The nominal policy rate ($i^{PR}$). (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to monetary policy rules, if current inflation is below the central bank's target, what action is the central bank MOST likely to take?

<p>Decrease the interest rate below neutral. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary factor that the 'risk premium' compensates lenders for in bond markets?

<p>The possibility of default. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Assuming other factors remain constant, how does increased global GDP growth typically impact a country's net exports?

<p>Net exports increase. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the direct impact on aggregate expenditure from discretionary fiscal policy stimulus, based on the IS-MP model?

<p>Aggregate expenditure increases. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the MOST likely immediate impact of expansionary monetary policy, within the IS-MP model framework?

<p>A decrease in the interest rate. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How would you expect a credit crunch to affect the liquidity premium?

<p>The liquidity premium would increase. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What condition is present when a central bank decreases the interest rate below the neutral rate?

<p>Inflation is below target. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How would diminished business confidence likely influence the IS curve?

<p>Shift the IS curve to the left. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If investors anticipate higher interest rates in the future, how will this expectation affect longer-term rates currently?

<p>Longer-term rates will increase. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Following a drop in aggregate demand caused by a financial shock, which policy response would provide the MOST direct counteraction?

<p>Increasing the money supply. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does increased government assistance typically have on the IS curve?

<p>Shifts the IS curve to the right. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role do automatic stabilizers primarily play within an economy?

<p>Reducing the magnitude of economic fluctuations. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The 'paradox of thrift' describes a situation where increased saving leads to what?

<p>Lower aggregate demand and output. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider the effect of very high inflation expectations ($\pi^e$) that become unanchored. Even when the central bank sets a high nominal policy rate ($i^{PR}$), the real interest rate (r) remains exceptionally low or negative. According to the IS-MP model, what is the MOST likely economic outcome?

<p>Uncontrollable hyperinflation and a collapse of the currency's value, coupled with an asset bubble. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the IS curve framework, which of the following is the MOST direct effect of an increase in the cost of consumption loans?

<p>Decreased consumption due to the higher cost of borrowing. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the IS-MP model, what would be the effect of increased global demand for a country's exports?

<p>A rightward shift of the IS curve due to increased net exports. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following fiscal policies would MOST likely shift the IS curve to the right?

<p>An increase in government assistance programs. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the central bank aims to maintain a specific nominal policy rate ($i^{PR}$) and inflation expectations ($\pi^e$) suddenly decrease, what will happen to the real interest rate (r)?

<p>The real interest rate (r) will increase. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the MOST direct impact of increased risk aversion among lenders on the broader economy?

<p>An increase in the risk premium, leading to higher borrowing costs. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What characterizes the 'term spread' in financial markets?

<p>The difference between the interest rates on loans of different maturities. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the effect on real interest rates when a central bank lowers the nominal policy rate below the neutral rate?

<p>It may lead to excessive risk-taking and asset bubbles. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How would decreased business confidence MOST likely impact the IS curve?

<p>Shift the IS curve to the left, decreasing aggregate demand. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Following a financial shock that reduces aggregate demand, which policy response would be MOST effective in directly counteracting the shock, assuming timely implementation?

<p>Expansionary fiscal policy. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary function of automatic stabilizers in an economy?

<p>To smooth out economic fluctuations by automatically adjusting government spending and taxation. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the loanable funds market, what economic factor is MOST closely associated with the risk premium?

<p>The probability of the borrower defaulting. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the central bank decreases the money supply in the overnight money market, what is the MOST likely immediate effect?

<p>An increase in the nominal policy rate. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Imagine a scenario where investors suddenly anticipate significantly higher inflation in the future. If the central bank keeps the nominal interest rate unchanged, what is the MOST likely consequence?

<p>A lower real interest rate, stimulating investment. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does an increase in the perceived riskiness of corporate bonds, relative to government bonds, MOST directly impact the risk spread?

<p>The risk spread widens, indicating higher perceived risk. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider an economy where consumer confidence plummets due to fears of a potential recession. What is the MOST likely initial impact on the IS curve, assuming no immediate policy intervention?

<p>The IS curve shifts to the left, decreasing equilibrium output. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An economy is operating at its potential output. If a large, unexpected increase in global demand for domestically produced goods occurs, what is the MOST likely sequence of events, assuming the central bank maintains its inflation target?

<p>Net exports increase, the IS curve shifts right, interest rates rise, and output returns to potential. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Imagine an economy where the central bank is committed to a strict inflation target. A significant supply-side shock increases production costs, leading to both higher inflation and lower output. According to the IS-MP framework, what is the MOST appropriate policy response for the central bank?

<p>Increase interest rates to curb inflation, even if it further reduces output. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider an economy where a sudden increase in global risk aversion leads to a 'flight to safety,' causing a large inflow of capital into government bonds. How would this MOST likely affect the 'term spread' and the 'risk spread'?

<p>The term spread would narrow, and the risk spread would widen. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a deep recession, even with the nominal interest rate at the zero lower bound, the real interest rate may still be too high due to deflation expectations (expected negative inflation). How does this situation affect aggregate expenditure, according to the IS-MP model?

<p>Aggregate expenditure decreases as the high real interest rate discourages investment. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An economy is initially in equilibrium. A new technological innovation significantly increases the expected future profitability of investment for firms. What is the MOST likely combined effect on the IS curve and the MP curve, assuming the central bank does not initially react?

<p>The IS curve shifts right, and the MP curve remains unchanged initially. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the Phillips Curve, what is the typical effect of an output gap (where actual output exceeds potential output) on inflation?

<p>It leads to increased inflation. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the Phillips Curve equation, which factor represents inflation expectations?

<p>$\pi^e$ (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the effect of predetermined labor contracts on the price-setting behavior of firms?

<p>Prices are set according to the expected price level. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following factors would NOT cause a movement along the Phillips Curve?

<p>Changes in input prices. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the consequence of firms setting nominal prices with a markup over marginal cost?

<p>It introduces a direct link between firms' costs and overall price level. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does high productivity growth typically affect the Phillips Curve?

<p>It shifts the Phillips Curve downwards, potentially leading to lower inflation. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the IS-MP-PC model, what is the initial impact of an increase in financial frictions ($\gamma$) on the economy, assuming the central bank does not immediately adjust the policy rate?

<p>Decreased aggregate spending and higher inflation. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the implication of Cost-Push Inflation for the central bank's policy decisions?

<p>The central bank faces a trade-off: fighting inflation may worsen a recession. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the most direct consequence of a central bank losing credibility in its inflation target?

<p>Higher expected inflation. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When an economy experiences 'stagflation', what challenge does this present for policymakers?

<p>Policies to combat inflation may worsen the recession. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason wages are assumed to increase faster when unemployment is low?

<p>There is more competition among firms for available workers. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the IS-MP-PC model, how does monetary policy feedback influence business cycle fluctuations?

<p>It dampens fluctuations. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Within the Phillips Curve framework, what is the effect of a negative supply shock ($\epsilon < 0$) on the short-run trade-off between inflation and output?

<p>It worsens the trade-off, leading to higher inflation for any given level of output. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the implication of an upward-sloping Monetary Policy Rule (MPR) curve in the AS-AD model?

<p>The central bank increases the real interest rate as inflation rises. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the Phillips Curve, what does 'menu cost' refer to?

<p>The costs firms incur when changing prices. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which scenario BEST describes a situation where the economy would experience 'demand-pull' inflation?

<p>A rapid increase in consumer spending outpaces the economy's production capacity. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the effect of currency depreciation on the Phillips Curve?

<p>It shifts the Phillips Curve upward. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the Phillips Curve, and assuming adaptive expectations, what would one expect to happen to inflation if unemployment falls below the natural rate?

<p>Inflation will rise. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider an economy described by the IS-MP-PC model. A financial crisis leads to a significant increase in the risk premium. The central bank, committed to its inflation target, responds by lowering the policy rate. However, the increased risk premium severely restricts the flow of credit, muting the impact of the central bank’s policy. What is the MOST likely outcome?

<p>The central bank is unable to stabilize output and inflation. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

There is a new technology that increases productivity in the manufacturing sector, but simultaneously requires significant worker retraining. In the short run, some workers become unemployed due to their skills not matching the new requirements, while firms that have adopted the technology experience increased profits. How would this situation likely affect the Phillips Curve?

<p>The Phillips Curve will become unstable and unpredictable. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the Phillips Curve, how do firms typically set nominal prices?

<p>With a markup over marginal cost, based on expected price level. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the Phillips Curve equation, what does the term $\alpha$ (alpha) represent?

<p>The sensitivity of inflation to the output gap. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the Phillips Curve, what condition is MOST likely to lead to increasing inflation?

<p>Output consistently above potential. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the Phillips Curve, what does a movement along the curve typically indicate?

<p>Changes in inflation and output resulting from fluctuations in aggregate demand. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following would MOST likely cause a shift in the Phillips Curve?

<p>A change in productivity growth that affects input costs. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the MOST likely effect of predetermined labor contracts on firms' price-setting behavior?

<p>They lead firms to set prices based on expected price levels. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does an increase in productivity growth typically affect the Phillips Curve?

<p>It shifts the Phillips Curve downward, improving the inflation-output trade-off. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does a currency depreciation affect the Phillips Curve?

<p>It shifts the Phillips Curve upward, worsening the inflation-output trade-off. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the Phillips Curve equation, $\pi = \pi^e + \alpha \hat{y}$, what does the parameter $\alpha$ (alpha) represent?

<p>The sensitivity of inflation to changes in the output gap. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the Phillips Curve, how do firms typically determine their nominal prices?

<p>By setting prices with a markup over marginal cost. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the Phillips Curve, how do firms primarily determine nominal prices?

<p>With a markup over their real marginal cost. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factor is least likely to influence the position of Aggregate Supply (AS) or Phillips Curve (PC) in the short run?

<p>Fluctuations in long-term productivity. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the MOST likely consequence of increased nominal wages throughout the economy, assuming no change in productivity or firms' markups?

<p>A rightward shift in the Phillips Curve, indicating higher inflation for any given output gap. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If an economy experiences a combination of rising inflation expectations and an adverse supply shock (e.g., rising oil prices), what is the most likely short-run outcome according to the IS-MP-PC model?

<p>Decreased output and increased inflation. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the Phillips Curve, what is the MOST likely impact of a central bank successfully anchoring inflation expectations at a low and stable level?

<p>The Phillips Curve flattens, allowing for larger changes in output with smaller changes in inflation. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An economy is experiencing low inflation and high unemployment. The central bank decides to increase the money supply to stimulate demand. However, businesses and consumers believe this policy will be reversed quickly. What is the likely effect on the Phillips Curve?

<p>Little to no noticeable short-term effect on the Phillips curve. (E)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose an economy is in long-run equilibrium with stable inflation. A new technology significantly boosts potential output, but also leads to a temporary surge in unemployment due to the need for worker retraining. Initially, how will both the short-run and long-run Phillips Curves likely be affected?

<p>Both the short-run and long-run Phillips Curves shift downwards. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The central bank announces a new, more flexible inflation-targeting regime that explicitly allows for some short-run deviation from its target to stabilize output. How will this change MOST likely impact the slope of the short-run Phillips Curve (SRPC) and the credibility of the central bank?

<p>SRPC becomes flatter; credibility decreases. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A country's central bank has been consistently missing its inflation target, leading to increased uncertainty about future price levels. How would you expect increased uncertainty regarding future inflation to directly affect the wage-setting behavior of firms and workers?

<p>Wage contracts become shorter in duration and more frequently renegotiated. (E)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a country heavily reliant on imported intermediate goods priced in a foreign currency, a sharp and unexpected depreciation of the domestic currency occurs. The central bank is committed to maintaining its existing inflation target. What would the IS-MP-PC model predict as the MOST immediate challenge for monetary policy?

<p>A need to raise interest rates despite potentially weakening output. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider an economy where a sustained period of low interest rates has led to excessive risk-taking in financial markets and a buildup of asset bubbles. If the Central Bank decides to ‘lean against the wind’ and raise interest rates to curb speculative activity, how is the Phillips Curve likely to be impacted in the short-run and medium-run?

<p>SR: Shifts downwards, MR: Unaffected. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Aggregate Demand

Total demand for goods and services in an economy at a given price level.

The IS Curve

Graphical representation showing the relationship between real interest rates and aggregate output (income) in the goods market.

Interest Rate Sensitivity of Demand

The sensitivity of aggregate expenditures (demand) to changes in the interest rate.

Consumption (C)

Spending by households on goods and services.

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Investment (I)

Spending by firms on capital goods.

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Government Purchases (G)

Government spending on goods and services.

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Net Exports (NX)

The value of a country's exports minus the value of its imports.

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The MP Curve

Curve representing the central bank's target for the real interest rate at each level of inflation.

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Nominal Policy Rate

Interest rate the central bank sets on overnight loans to commercial banks.

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Real Interest Rate

The real interest rate after accounting for expected inflation.

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Monetary Policy Rule

A rule that describes how a central bank adjusts the nominal interest rate in response to economic conditions

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Demand Shocks

A type of shock that directly affects aggregate demand. Examples: changes in consumer confidence, government policy, or global economic conditions

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Financial Shocks

A financial shock refers to unexpected events in financial markets that can significantly impact the broader economy.

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Default risk premium

the extra return demanded by investors to compensate for the risk that a borrower will default on payments.

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Liquidity premium

the additional yield required on an investment to compensate the investor for assets that cannot be quickly converted into cash at its current market value.

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Term premium

the difference in yield between two bonds with different maturities. It reflects the additional compensation investors demand for holding longer-term debt, which is exposed to greater interest rate risk

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Fiscal Policy

Government's use of spending and taxation to influence the economy.

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Monetary Policy

Central bank actions to manage the money supply and credit conditions to influence the economy.

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Y (Production)

The level of production in an economy

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Government Purchases Examples

Spending bills and automatic stabilizers, excluding direct transfer payments

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Risk Spread

The difference between interest rates paid on corporate bonds and government bonds

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Movements along the IS curve

Changes in interest rates due to changes in inflation expectations

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Shifts of the IS Curve

Changes in C, I, G, or NX not due to changes in r

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Paradox of Thrift

A situation where increased saving leads to a fall in aggregate demand and output

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Multiplier Effects

The concept that an initial change in spending can lead to a larger change in aggregate output

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Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

Expectations about the future becomes self-fulfilling

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Aggregate Expenditures

Aggregate expenditures (demand) as a function of the interest rate.

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Interest Rate Sensitive Investment

The sensitivity of investment spending to changes in interest rates.

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Impact of Lower Interest Rates

The idea that lower interest rates stimulate increased spending and economic activity.

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π*

The central bank's inflation target.

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r*

The neutral real interest rate in the economy.

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Phillips Curve

A curve illustrating the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.

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Price Markup (μ)

The percentage markup over marginal cost when firms set nominal prices.

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Menu costs

Costs associated with changing prices, paid by firms.

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Output gap (ŷ)

Deviation of actual output from potential output.

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Demand-Pull Inflation

Movements along the Phillips Curve that reflect business cycle fluctuations.

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Supply shock (ε)

The change in input prices or wages.

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Cost-Push Inflation

Inflation resulting from increased production costs.

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Stagflation

Rising prices and declining output together.

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AS-AD Model

Graph illustrating the relationship between r and Y, with the incorporation of the Phillips curve

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PC as AS

The Phillips Curve becomes the Aggregate Supply curve.

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Price Setting by Firms

Firms set nominal prices considering a markup over their marginal costs, influenced by expected price levels and production expenses.

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Phillips Curve Equation

Equation showing the theoretical relationship between inflation, expected inflation, and the output gap.

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Movements Along the Phillips Curve

Changes in business cycle positions indicated by movements along the curve.

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Phillips Curve Shifts

Curve shifts responding to supply shocks, impacting both inflation and output.

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Higher Than Expected Inflation Effects

Increases in input prices result in the Phillips curve shifting upwards.

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Lower Than Expected Inflation

When input prices decrease the Phillips curve moves downward.

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Phillips Curve Origin

When output equals potential output, inflation equals expected inflation.

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CB policy adjustment rationale

The central bank must adjust policy rates to overcome obstacles in the smooth transmission of monetary policy impulses to the real economy.

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IS Curve Shift

Changes in consumption, investment, government purchases or net exports.

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Supply shock cause

An increase in production costs shifts the Phillips curve up.

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Monetary Policy Impact

CB's monetary policy feedback dampens business cycles or fluctuations.

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Stagflation Policy Dilemma

The central bank cannot combat increased prices and declining output without worsening the recession.

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Labour Market Phillips Curve

The relationship where higher unemployment leads to lower unexpected inflation, and lower unemployment leads to higher unexpected inflation.

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Phillips Curve in the Book Model

A curve illustrating the short-run relationship between unexpected inflation and the output gap.

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Financial Shocks Effect

Unexpected events in financial markets that can significantly impact the broader economy

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Stagflation Definition

Rising prices with a decline in output

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Output Gap Formula

Deviation of actual output from potential output. (y - y*)

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Nominal prices

The nominal prices firms set including markup over marginal cost

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The Phillips Curve

Graphical representation of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in an economy.

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Inflation Expectations

The level of inflation that economic actors expect to prevail in the future.

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Shifts of the Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve is augmented to include supply shocks that shift the curve.

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CB Policy Adjustment

The central bank's adjustment of policy rates to accommodate frictional forces in financial markets.

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Phillips Curve Becomes Aggregate Supply

The Phillips Curve transforms to the Aggregate Supply curve within the AS-AD model.

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Monetary Policy Dampens Cycles

The CB's actions help to dampen the intensity of business cycles.

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Study Notes

Aggregate Demand

  • Aggregate expenditures are a function of the interest rate
  • Formula for Aggregate Demand is Y = C + I + G + NX
  • Each component of aggregate demand (C, I, G, NX) is influenced by the interest rate (r)

IS Curve

  • Movements along the IS curve occur because of changes in r
  • Shifts of the IS curve occur because of changes in C, I, G, or NX independent of changes in r
  • Multiplier effects amplify the impact of these changes

Interest Rate Impact

  • Consumption decreases as the cost of consumption loans increases
  • Consumption increases as return on savings increases (opportunity cost)
  • Investment decreases as return on saving increases (opportunity cost)
  • Investment is most interest rate sensitive because future returns are discounted at a higher rate
  • Government purchases are least interest rate sensitive because interest payments on debt increase
  • Net exports decrease as demand for currency increases, leading to exchange rate increases

MP Curve

  • The central bank sets a nominal policy rate by managing the money supply
  • The central bank influences the overnight money market

Monetary Policy

  • The real interest rate (r) is equal to the nominal policy rate (i) minus expected inflation

Monetary Policy Rule

  • Central bank determines a set point to target inflation
  • If inflation is above the target, the central bank increases the interest rate above neutral
  • If inflation is below the target, the central bank decreases the interest rate below neutral

Risk Premium

  • Nominal interest rate is the sum of the real interest rate, expected inflation, a default risk premium, a liquidity premium, and a term/interest rate risk premium
  • Overnight money market includes shortest term and very low risk
  • Bond/consumer loan markets include terms of 3 months to 10 years and significant risk
  • The rate in the bond/consumer loan market is a function of the risk free rate plus a risk premium

Risk Spread

  • Risk spread is the difference between corporate and government bond interest rates
  • Term spread is the difference between interest rates on 10-year and 3-month government bonds

IS-MP Model

  • Describes macroeconomic equilibrium
  • Y = C + I + G + NX

Demand Shocks

  • Changes in aggregate demand that shift the IS curve

IS Curve Shifters and examples

  • Consumption: Increased Consumption results from increased wealth, consumer confidence and Government assistance. Decreased consumption results form increased taxes and inequality
  • Investment: Increased Investment results from GDP growth, business confidence, and investment tax credits. Decreased Investment results from corporate taxes, difficult lending standards and low cast reserves, uncertainty
  • Government Purchases: Rise in Spending bills and automatic stabilizers
  • Net exports: rise in global GDP growth, weak Canadian dollar, trade barriers in foreign markets

Notes on IS-MP Model

  • The model contains paradox of thrift, multiplier effects, and self-fulfilling prophecies

Financial Shocks

  • Default risk premium increases when lenders believe firms will default on paying back their debt
  • Liquidity premium increases when there is a credit crunch which increases the demand for liquid funds from banks
  • The term/interest rate risk premium increases as interest rates are expected to be higher in the near future (increased defaults) thus longer-term rates increase

Monetary and Fiscal Policy

  • Discretionary fiscal policy stimulus shifts the IS curve
  • Expansionary monetary policy shifts the MP curve

The Phillips Curve

  • Firms set nominal prices with a markup over marginal cost, shown as the equation P = Pe * μ * MC, where P is the nominal price, Pe is the expected price level, μ is the markup, and MC is the marginal cost.
  • Production costs are often predetermined, so the price is set according to the expected price level.
  • Predetermined labor contracts and menu costs are factors.
  • The Phillips Curve/Aggregate Supply equation is π = πe + αŷ, where π is inflation, πe is inflation expectations, α is a constant, and ŷ is the output gap.

Factors that Impact the Phillips Curve

  • Movements along the Phillips Curve are business cycle fluctuations.
  • Low demand (y < ỳ) leads to low production, low labor demand, low (real) wage pressure, slack in production, low cost pressure, and low inflation/deflation.
  • High demand (y > ỳ) leads to high production, high labor demand, high (real) wage pressure, hitting capacity constraints, high cost pressure, and high inflation (Demand-Pull Inflation).

Movements of the Philips Curve

  • Supply shocks can cause shifts of the Philips Curve with the formula π = πe + α(y – ӯ) + ε, where ε is the supply shock.
  • Higher than expected inflation (ε): Input price increases such as droughts, supply chain interruptions, increases in oil prices, wages, and currency depreciation (foreign inputs become more expensive). Higher expected inflation (πe) and a central bank that loses credibility. All leads to Cost-Push Inflation.
  • Lower than expected inflation (ε): Input prices fall, high productivity growth, and currency appreciation (foreign inputs become cheaper).

Phillips Curve in the Book

  • Unexpected inflation = π − πe = α(y − ỹ)
  • When the output gap is closed the best expectation for inflation is the CB's inflation target π* (if the CB is credible)
  • If y = ӯ (ŷ = 0) then πe = π*

The Classic Phillips Curve

  • The labor market Phillips curve shows that higher unemployment leads to lower unexpected inflation, and lower unemployment leads to higher unexpected inflation.
  • At the equilibrium unemployment rate, unexpected inflation is zero, so inflation is equal to inflation expectations.
  • Phillips Curve: π = πe + αŷ
  • Okun's Rule of Thumb: ŷ = −γ (u – un)
  • π = πe – β(u – un) and β = α/γ

The AS-AD Model

  • CB needs to adjust policy rate for financial frictions
  • CB indirectly controls demand
  • The PC becomes Aggregate Supply (AS)

Demand Shocks and Monetary Policy

  • Monetary Policy feedback dampens business cycle fluctuations

Supply Shocks

  • Stagflation occurs when CB can't fight inflation without making recession worse

Aggregate Supply Function Derivation

  • P = Pe * μ * MC
  • Pt = Pe * μ * MCt
  • Taking logs gives pt = pe + μ + mct
  • In the previous period pt-1 = pe-1 + μ + mct-1
  • πt = pt - pt-1 = πet + mct - mct-1 = πet + Δmct
  • The change in marginal cost is proportional to the output gap: Δmct = αŷt
  • The equation 𝜋 = πe + αŷ is derived from increasing marginal cost and wage pressures in the labor market; wages increase faster when unemployment is low and increase slower/stagnate when unemployment is high

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