Insurance Stress Testing on Climate Change
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Questions and Answers

Which type of risk is associated with higher than expected insurance claims on damaged insured assets?

  • Underwriting risk (correct)
  • Credit risk
  • Liquidity risk
  • Operational risk
  • What kind of risk may lead to impairment of asset values due to financial losses affecting profitability?

  • Underwriting risk
  • Market risk (correct)
  • Operational risk
  • Liquidity risk
  • Which risk is characterized by a deterioration in the creditworthiness of borrowers due to financial losses?

  • Operational risk
  • Liquidity risk
  • Credit risk (correct)
  • Market risk
  • Which type of risk involves disruption to one's own insurance activities or assets?

    <p>Operational risk (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which risk is potentially impacted by unexpected higher payouts and broader economic downturns?

    <p>Liquidity risk (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What risk might lead to stranded assets and decreased values in carbon-intensive sectors?

    <p>Transitional market risk (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which risk is primarily associated with higher than expected mortality or morbidity rates?

    <p>Underwriting risk (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What type of risk includes the potential for business interruptions caused by environmental factors?

    <p>Market risk (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What effect could higher levels of adaptation have on the economy?

    <p>Both A and C (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a potential consequence of second-round impacts on financial stability?

    <p>Increased adaptation costs (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which factor may increase non-linear impacts in climate change modeling?

    <p>Direct losses to certain sectors (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How can diversified economies affect financial stability risks?

    <p>Mitigate transition costs (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a consequence of climate policy on macroeconomic channels?

    <p>Variable impacts on sectors (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can be expected from higher-than-expected damages?

    <p>Increased long-term adaptation costs (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What role does feedback loops play in economic modeling?

    <p>They complicate accurate predictions (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How can increased adaptation capacity affect financial systems?

    <p>Reduce transition costs (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does climate change's uncertainty predominantly affect?

    <p>The speed and timing of policy impacts (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What could be a direct loss experienced by an economy due to climate change?

    <p>Sector-specific damage (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the expected timing of effects for extreme climate events according to the provided information?

    <p>Short to medium term (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the timing of impacts differ between gradual warming and transition risks?

    <p>Gradual warming is medium to long term while transition risks are short to medium term (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What type of financial impact is expected from gradual warming?

    <p>Anticipated shocks to financial and non-financial assets (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is associated with the potential financial impact of transition risk?

    <p>Unanticipated shocks and stranded assets (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What defines a static/fixed reference balance sheet in risk modeling?

    <p>No reactive management actions and fixed asset values (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What may be a consequence of performing calculations at intermittent intervals within the modeling horizon?

    <p>Inconsistent valuation and potential overestimation of risks (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to the scenarios described, which risk factor primarily affects economic distress in the short to medium term?

    <p>Extreme climate events (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a characteristic of dynamic balance sheets as mentioned in the context?

    <p>They incorporate reactive management actions. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a significant drawback of using gradual warming in climate change scenarios?

    <p>It may result in non-linear impacts on climate change extremes. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What characterizes fixed reactive management actions in climate scenarios?

    <p>They assume instantaneous shocks to the balance sheet at specific intervals. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does dynamic reactive management allow in climate scenario modeling?

    <p>Management actions to be considered at various intervals. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a limitation when using reactive management actions for long-term climate scenarios?

    <p>They have reduced comparability across different intervals. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the complexity of reactive management actions impact their assessment?

    <p>It increases the computational burden for model assessments. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the focus of reactive management actions in the context of climate change?

    <p>Actions taken in direct response to occurring scenarios. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What aspect of the balance sheet is assessed with fixed reactive management actions?

    <p>Immediate effects of climate shocks at reference dates. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What kind of climate scenario model complexity is associated with dynamic management actions?

    <p>Highly complex with many response intervals. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a potential challenge faced with reactive management actions over time?

    <p>They can overstate impacts if not carefully implemented. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a consequence of applying reactive management actions intermittently?

    <p>It adds additional scenario specifications and complexities. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary purpose of assessing the potential long-term financial impact of climate change-related risks?

    <p>To determine required transformations given potential climate scenarios. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which aspect of risk management is highlighted for insurers concerning climate change?

    <p>Reactive management actions in response to climate change-related risks. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which variable is not typically considered a climate risk in the context provided?

    <p>Global population growth. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What financial metric is likely affected by climate change according to the provided overview?

    <p>Interest rates (RFR). (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which type of risk is associated with climate change that affects various financial sectors?

    <p>Transition risk. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is one of the potential spill-over effects of insurers' responses to climate change?

    <p>Changes in financial market stability. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following climate-related metrics is crucial for evaluating financial markets?

    <p>Commodity and energy prices. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What factor is considered when specifying financial variables influenced by climate scenarios?

    <p>Interest rates including risk-free rates. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In assessing climate change, which area is specifically urged for insurers to integrate climate-related risks?

    <p>Governance and strategy frameworks. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which climate variable is most concerned with the physical impacts of climate change?

    <p>Mortality/morbidity parameters. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What defines the 'Hot house world' scenario?

    <p>No additional policy action is taken beyond announcements. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which advantage is associated with the sectoral granularity in scenario specification?

    <p>Allows for comparison against similar studies. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a significant disadvantage when using broad economic factors in climate scenario modeling?

    <p>Uncertainty regarding model calibration affects outcomes. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement best describes the effect of aggregation level in scenario specification?

    <p>It's less detailed but simplifies the specifications. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What outcome occurs when firms use different models in scenario analysis?

    <p>Greater flexibility in assessment and potential inconsistency. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a consequence of specifying impacts at the individual asset level?

    <p>It encourages a deeper examination of risk exposures. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following statements is true regarding the granularity of technical specifications?

    <p>It encourages firms to enhance their modelling capacity. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is it challenging to bridge climate models with economic sector impacts?

    <p>There is no widely accepted methodology for such estimates. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What challenge arises from assessing impacts using a firm-specific granularity?

    <p>Requires extensive mapping of portfolios to activities. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What limitation is associated with climate factors in scenario specification?

    <p>Translating climate factors into financial impacts can be complex. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a primary concern with macroeconomic factors in climate scenario assessments?

    <p>They fail to distinguish impacts across economic sectors. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What issue arises from using highly granular data at the activity level?

    <p>It necessitates extensive risk management competencies. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a key aspect of scenario narratives in climate risk assessments?

    <p>They force firms to engage in extensive risk assessments. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Flashcards

    Financial stability risks

    Risks to the stability of the financial system due to climate change.

    Second-round impacts

    Indirect effects of climate change on the economy, beyond the initial damage.

    Level of adaptation

    The degree to which a country or business can adjust to climate change.

    Adaptive capacity

    The ability of a country or business to adjust to climate change.

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    Transition costs

    Costs associated with adjusting to a low-carbon economy.

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    Non-linear impacts

    Climate change effects that are not proportional to the cause.

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    Climate policy

    Actions taken by governments to address climate change.

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    Feedback loops

    Processes where one change leads to further changes, often in a cyclical way in economics.

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    Damages

    Physical or economic harm caused by climate events.

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    Macroeconomic channels

    Broad ways climate change impacts the overall economy.

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    Underwriting risk (non-life)

    Higher-than-expected insurance claims on damaged insured assets.

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    Underwriting risk (life/health)

    Higher-than-expected mortality or morbidity rates.

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    Market risk (assets)

    Impairment of asset values due to financial losses impacting firm profitability.

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    Credit risk (assets)

    Deteriorating creditworthiness of borrowers impacting the value of assets.

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    Market risk (transition)

    Impairment of financial asset values due to low-carbon transitions, e.g., stranded assets.

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    Operational risk

    Disruptions to insurance activities and assets, like damage to property.

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    Liquidity risk

    Unexpected higher payouts during economic downturns.

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    Specific examples of market risk

    Equity price shocks and bond price/yield shocks.

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    Reactive Management Actions

    Actions taken by businesses in response to climate change scenarios, beyond the baseline plan.

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    Gradual Warming

    A gradual increase in global temperatures over time.

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    Plausibility of Reactive Actions

    Making sure the chosen reactive measures are reasonable and likely to be effective in addressing a climate change scenario.

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    Consistency of Reactive Actions

    Making sure the chosen reactive measures fit with the overall climate change scenario and the baseline plan.

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    Limitations of Reactive Management

    Constraints on the effectiveness of reactive management due to factors like slow response times, limited resources, or unforeseen consequences.

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    Intermittent Intervals

    Regular intervals within a climate change scenario, like every year or every five years, used to evaluate impacts and implement reactive actions.

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    Reference Date

    A specific point in time used as a starting point for evaluating impacts and enacting reactive management actions.

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    Instantaneous Shocks

    Sudden and significant events within a climate change scenario that impact the balance sheet immediately.

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    Dynamic Balance Sheet

    A balance sheet that can change and adapt in response to climate change scenarios and reactive management actions.

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    Physical Risks in Climate Change

    Direct impacts of climate change, like extreme weather events.

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    Transition Risks in Climate Change

    Risks arising from the shift to a low-carbon economy.

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    Hot House World Scenario

    A climate change scenario with high physical and transition risks, where no policy action was taken.

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    Scenario Specification Granularity

    The level of detail in climate change scenarios for stress testing.

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    Bottom-up Stress Testing

    A method of stress testing where firms assess their own risks related to climate.

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    Scenario Narrative

    A high-level description of a climate change scenario.

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    Climate Factors

    Variables related to climate change like temperature or precipitation changes.

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    Broad Economic Factors

    Macroeconomic variables like GDP and inflation and their impact on climate risk.

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    Sectoral Impacts

    Different impacts of climate change on different economic sectors.

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    Firm-Specific Impacts

    Climate change's unique impact on each company based on their operations.

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    Activity Level

    The most granular level of assessment of climate impacts.

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    Paris Agreement Climate Goal

    The aim of keeping global warming minimal to prevent dangerous climate change.

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    Stress Testing

    Evaluating a company's ability to cope with severe events or conditions.

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    Aggregation level

    The level of grouping economic data for analysis.

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    Granularity

    The level of detail in data or analysis.

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    Climate Scenario Impact Assessment

    Analyzing the long-term financial consequences of climate change risks on a business's current operations and balance sheet.

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    Transformation Required for Climate Scenarios

    The extent of changes needed in a company's operations and business model to adapt to a specific climate scenario.

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    Governance, Strategy, Risk Management & Targets

    How companies integrate climate change-related considerations into their decision-making, plans, risk management frameworks, aims, and goals.

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    Climate Stress Test (CST)

    A comprehensive analysis of the financial impact of climate change on a company, including both physical and transition risks.

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    Physical Risk Variables in CST

    Climate-related events and changes affecting a company, including temperature changes, extreme weather, and sea level rise.

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    Transition Risk Variables in CST

    Factors related to the shift towards a low-carbon economy, including emission pathways, carbon pricing, and energy transition policies.

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    Macroeconomic Impact Variables in CST

    Climate change's effect on the overall economy, including GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates.

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    Financial Market Impact Variables in CST

    Climate change's influence on financial instruments, such as government and corporate bonds, equity indices, and commodity prices.

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    Reinsurance in CST

    The role of reinsurance companies in managing climate risks, with a focus on their influence on the overall impact assessment.

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    Physical risk

    Climate change risks that directly affect physical assets, such as buildings, infrastructure, and natural resources.

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    Transition risk

    Climate change risks related to the shift toward a low-carbon economy, such as policy changes, technological advancements, and shifting consumer preferences.

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    Extreme climate events

    Sudden and severe weather events caused by climate change, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, and heatwaves.

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    Stranded assets

    Assets that become worthless or less valuable due to the transition to a low-carbon economy.

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    Static reference balance sheet

    A balance sheet that doesn't change in response to climate change scenarios, assuming no reactive management actions are taken.

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    Study Notes

    Methodological Principles of Insurance Stress Testing – Climate Change Component

    • This document outlines methodological principles for incorporating climate change risks in stress testing frameworks for insurance companies.
    • It serves as a tool for designing and calibrating future supervisory climate stress tests.
    • It's part of a broader strategy to integrate sustainability and climate-related assessments into insurance supervision.

    Introduction

    • The primary goal is to establish methodological principles for incorporating climate-related risks into stress tests.
    • Climate change is a relatively new risk, requiring expertise beyond traditional financial/insurance perimeters and collaboration across disciplines.
    • Climate change impacts are irreversible, non-linear, and structural with time horizons exceeding traditional stress testing models.

    Key Assumptions and Uncertainties

    • Macroeconomic considerations are paramount for stress testing.
    • Future climate policy and its implications, including the speed and timing of transition to a low-carbon economy, need to be accounted for.

    Climate Change Risk and Transmission Channels

    • Climate change poses significant financial risk, affecting both physical and transition risks.
    • Physical risks arise from the direct impacts of extreme weather events (floods, heatwaves) and long-term climate changes (sea level rise).
    • Transition risks result from the shift to a low-carbon economy.

    Historical Data and Experience

    • Historical data plays an evolving role, emphasizing a forward-looking aspect to assess climate change scenarios.
    • Future climate scenarios rely heavily on assumptions for future equilibria.
    • The exercises are learning experiences, continually improving as expertise and capacity advance.

    Climate Change Stress Test Exercise

    • The process of climate stress testing is similar to traditional stress testing but has distinct objectives.
    • The aim is exploratory, focusing on better understanding uncertainties and long-term impacts.

    Scenario Design

    • Selecting appropriate scenario narratives is critical.
    • Scenarios involve key questions regarding risk coverage, time horizons, and granularity.
    • A range of climate scenarios needs to evaluate both physical and transition risks, along with their interplay.

    General Principles

    • It is crucial to consider both physical and transition risks simultaneously.
    • Using multiple scenarios and paths accounts for different climate policy scenarios.
    • Scenarios need a central path and adverse tail events for evaluating resilience.
    • Adequate information, preferably quantitative, is necessary for scenarios concerning climate pathways and financial impact.

    Granularity of Scenario Specifications

    • Scenario granularity levels influence the degree of freedom and validation.
    • Higher levels require more detail and complex specifications but lead to greater comparability.
    • Lower levels yield greater simplicity but lose comparability.

    Treatment of Reinsurance

    • Reinsurance treaties play a vital role in handling physical risks, thus requiring special consideration during stress tests.
    • Impacts can be calculated gross or net of reinsurance.
    • Reinstatements and possible changes in the reinstatement regime are critical factors.

    Profitability Indicators

    • Various indicators evaluate the profitability of insurers exposed to climate risks, such as Loss Ratio.
    • Other factors are also considered, such as technical result and impact on an overall profit and loss.

    Technical Indicators

    • Various types of technical indicators evaluate the resilience of insurance companies against climate change shocks.
    • These indicators help gauge risk and understand the potential impact on various asset classes.

    Second-Round Effects and Spillover

    • Climate change impacts extend beyond individual insurers.
    • Second-round effects and spillover impacts on the wider financial sector need to be assessed.
    • Measures to assess potential climate change effects on the affordability and availability of insurance require consideration.

    Methodological Principles

    • EIOPA offers methodological principles for developing climate change stress testing.
    • These principles include considerations for scenarios, specifications, and granularity.
    • EIOPA emphasizes a "step-by-step" approach and stresses that early exercises are learning processes.

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    Description

    This quiz covers the methodological principles for integrating climate change risks into insurance stress testing frameworks. It emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and long-term thinking in assessing climate impacts on insurance. The quiz aims to enhance understanding of supervision methods for climate-related risks.

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