Podcast
Questions and Answers
What characterizes a megatrend?
What characterizes a megatrend?
Which dimension of megatrends includes their observable time frame?
Which dimension of megatrends includes their observable time frame?
How do megatrends impact society and the economy?
How do megatrends impact society and the economy?
Which two megatrends are recognized as simultaneous forces of change?
Which two megatrends are recognized as simultaneous forces of change?
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What is a challenge that arises from the fragmentation of societies?
What is a challenge that arises from the fragmentation of societies?
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What role does the Futures Wheel play in understanding megatrends?
What role does the Futures Wheel play in understanding megatrends?
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Which global challenge is NOT directly dependent on human factors?
Which global challenge is NOT directly dependent on human factors?
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What does the term 'hyperconnected information environment' refer to?
What does the term 'hyperconnected information environment' refer to?
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What does VUCA stand for?
What does VUCA stand for?
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Which skill is essential for managing complexity in a VUCA environment?
Which skill is essential for managing complexity in a VUCA environment?
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What challenge is NOT mentioned as a characteristic of ambiguity?
What challenge is NOT mentioned as a characteristic of ambiguity?
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How did Unilever respond to the challenges posed by a VUCA world?
How did Unilever respond to the challenges posed by a VUCA world?
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Which of the following impacts decision-making in a VUCA environment?
Which of the following impacts decision-making in a VUCA environment?
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What is an example of how complexity can be detrimental in individual decision-making?
What is an example of how complexity can be detrimental in individual decision-making?
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In a VUCA environment, how might organizations effectively cope with uncertainty?
In a VUCA environment, how might organizations effectively cope with uncertainty?
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What is one of the key features of a turbulent environment?
What is one of the key features of a turbulent environment?
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What does VUCA stand for in the context of strategic leadership?
What does VUCA stand for in the context of strategic leadership?
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Which of the following is a characteristic of black swan events?
Which of the following is a characteristic of black swan events?
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What was the original context in which the concept of VUCA was introduced?
What was the original context in which the concept of VUCA was introduced?
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How can organizations build resilience in a volatile environment, according to the information provided?
How can organizations build resilience in a volatile environment, according to the information provided?
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Which of the following is NOT a cause of volatility mentioned in the context?
Which of the following is NOT a cause of volatility mentioned in the context?
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What is suggested as a characteristic of stable demand in a growing middle class?
What is suggested as a characteristic of stable demand in a growing middle class?
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What term is used to describe the impact of COVID-19 in the discussed context?
What term is used to describe the impact of COVID-19 in the discussed context?
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Which strategy is NOT suggested for coping with volatility?
Which strategy is NOT suggested for coping with volatility?
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What effect does a stronger middle class have on governance, as described?
What effect does a stronger middle class have on governance, as described?
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Which demographic shift is highlighted as affecting water demand?
Which demographic shift is highlighted as affecting water demand?
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Study Notes
Week 1 - Understanding the Future: Megatrends
- Predictions are difficult due to the complexity and constant change in the world
- Megatrends are a long-term change impacting governments, societies and economies
- Megatrends evolve slowly and powerfully over decades
- Futures Wheel helps understand interconnected changes and challenges
- Megatrends have three dimensions: time (observable over decades, projected 15+ years), reach (affect all regions and stakeholders), and impact (transform policies, society, and the economy)
- Global challenges (climate change, financial crises, pandemics) and fragmentation of societies are major forces shaping the world
- Imbalances between global challenges and needs exist in the international system
- Adaptability is key to gaining advantages within global change
Examples of Megatrends
- Population increase: global population is projected to grow to 8.6 billion in 2030
- Aging demographics: increased proportion of people aged 65+ globally
- Urbanization: increasing urban populations worldwide
- Technological advancement: accelerated pace of innovation and technology diffusion
- Rise of the individual: empowered consumers and tastes & preferences
- Rise of Asia: economic rise of Asian nations in comparison to traditional world powers
- Global competition: shifting economic power dynamics – challenges for established global powers
- Climate change and resource scarcity: global warming and environmental concerns
- Growth of the middle class: increasing demand and consumption from populations classed 'middle class' (50%), mostly within Asian nations
Week 2 - Overview of VUCA
- VUCA refers to Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity
- Introduced by the U.S. Army War College, the acronym now describes a chaotic, turbulent, and rapidly changing business environment
- Black Swan events are highly disruptive and impactful events with unforeseen consequences (e.g., 9/11, pandemics)
Levels of Uncertainty
- Level 1: Clear Enough Future - Managers can develop a single forecast, one strategic direction
- Level 2: Alternate Futures - There are a few alternative outcomes/discrete scenarios
- Level 3: Range of Futures - There is a range of potential futures depending on key variables
Week 3 - Understanding Context: From the Lens of Speed
- Adaptability: ability to quickly adjust and change strategy is a new key advantage in a volatile market
- The size of a firm does not automatically ensure success
- It's hard to predict the factors that will help a company thrive and be successful
Second-Order Capabilities
- Time pacing: scheduling changes at predictable intervals to react to trends and events effectively
- Event pacing: reacting to changes only when events occur (e.g., new technological advancements or changes in market share)
Week 4 - Understanding Context: From the Lens of Disruption
- Disruptive innovations: products or services that are initially less desirable than existing ones, but are ultimately superior and reshape markets (e.g., personal computers, smartphones disrupting the mainframe computer market)
- Sustaining innovations: incrementally improve existing products or services to meet the demands of mainstream consumers
Week 5 - Understanding Context: Organizational Boundaries
- Companies need to consider how much value is generated by the exchange outside the firm vs within as it expands
- Governance mechanism to control external exchanges and internal resources
Week 6 - Learning from Experience: Organizational Learning
- Organizational learning: the capacity or processes within an org to maintain or improve performance based on experience
- Assumptions made: organizations learn through production, collection, sharing, and transformation of knowledge to drive performance gains
- Learning is a process, and there are associated risks
- Learning is more important than just information
- Important because it improves efficiency and flexibility
Weeks 7-10 - Building and Managing Future Capabilities
- Strategy as Options for the Future: companies must build a portfolio of strategic options for different parts of the future, to adapt to it
- Agility: the ability to spot opportunities in the market
- Absorption: building a buffer to weather hard times (e.g., diverse revenue streams, cash reserves, etc.)
- Ideation, Incubation, Scaling: the 3 innovation disciplines necessary to build new businesses successfully
- Integrative thinking: the ability to hold opposing ideas, find creative solutions, and resist simple answers; it's a “habit of mind” leading to better options
Acting Like a Scientist
- Be a knowledgeable sceptic: question assumptions and seek evidence, test and refine hypotheses
Week 10 – Leading and Managing on the Edge
- Resilience: the ability to reinvent a business model before circumstances dictate it, and cope with the changes
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