Untitled Quiz

Week 1 - Understanding the Future: Megatrends

• Predictions are difficult due to the complexity and constant change in the world
• Megatrends are a long-term change impacting governments, societies and economies
• Megatrends evolve slowly and powerfully over decades
• Futures Wheel helps understand interconnected changes and challenges
• Megatrends have three dimensions: time (observable over decades, projected 15+ years), reach (affect all regions and stakeholders), and impact (transform policies, society, and the economy)
• Global challenges (climate change, financial crises, pandemics) and fragmentation of societies are major forces shaping the world
• Imbalances between global challenges and needs exist in the international system
• Adaptability is key to gaining advantages within global change

Examples of Megatrends

• Population increase: global population is projected to grow to 8.6 billion in 2030
• Aging demographics: increased proportion of people aged 65+ globally
• Urbanization: increasing urban populations worldwide
• Technological advancement: accelerated pace of innovation and technology diffusion
• Rise of the individual: empowered consumers and tastes & preferences
• Rise of Asia: economic rise of Asian nations in comparison to traditional world powers
• Global competition: shifting economic power dynamics – challenges for established global powers
• Climate change and resource scarcity: global warming and environmental concerns
• Growth of the middle class: increasing demand and consumption from populations classed 'middle class' (50%), mostly within Asian nations

Week 2 - Overview of VUCA

• VUCA refers to Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity
• Introduced by the U.S. Army War College, the acronym now describes a chaotic, turbulent, and rapidly changing business environment
• Black Swan events are highly disruptive and impactful events with unforeseen consequences (e.g., 9/11, pandemics)

Levels of Uncertainty

• Level 1: Clear Enough Future - Managers can develop a single forecast, one strategic direction
• Level 2: Alternate Futures - There are a few alternative outcomes/discrete scenarios
• Level 3: Range of Futures - There is a range of potential futures depending on key variables

Week 3 - Understanding Context: From the Lens of Speed

• Adaptability: ability to quickly adjust and change strategy is a new key advantage in a volatile market
• The size of a firm does not automatically ensure success
• It's hard to predict the factors that will help a company thrive and be successful

Second-Order Capabilities

• Time pacing: scheduling changes at predictable intervals to react to trends and events effectively
• Event pacing: reacting to changes only when events occur (e.g., new technological advancements or changes in market share)

Week 4 - Understanding Context: From the Lens of Disruption

• Disruptive innovations: products or services that are initially less desirable than existing ones, but are ultimately superior and reshape markets (e.g., personal computers, smartphones disrupting the mainframe computer market)
• Sustaining innovations: incrementally improve existing products or services to meet the demands of mainstream consumers

Week 5 - Understanding Context: Organizational Boundaries

• Companies need to consider how much value is generated by the exchange outside the firm vs within as it expands
• Governance mechanism to control external exchanges and internal resources

Week 6 - Learning from Experience: Organizational Learning

• Organizational learning: the capacity or processes within an org to maintain or improve performance based on experience
• Assumptions made: organizations learn through production, collection, sharing, and transformation of knowledge to drive performance gains
• Learning is a process, and there are associated risks
• Learning is more important than just information
• Important because it improves efficiency and flexibility

Weeks 7-10 - Building and Managing Future Capabilities

• Strategy as Options for the Future: companies must build a portfolio of strategic options for different parts of the future, to adapt to it
• Agility: the ability to spot opportunities in the market
• Absorption: building a buffer to weather hard times (e.g., diverse revenue streams, cash reserves, etc.)
• Ideation, Incubation, Scaling: the 3 innovation disciplines necessary to build new businesses successfully
• Integrative thinking: the ability to hold opposing ideas, find creative solutions, and resist simple answers; it's a “habit of mind” leading to better options

Acting Like a Scientist

• Be a knowledgeable sceptic: question assumptions and seek evidence, test and refine hypotheses

Week 10 – Leading and Managing on the Edge

• Resilience: the ability to reinvent a business model before circumstances dictate it, and cope with the changes