Huntington's Clash of Civilizations

Overview of Huntington's Thesis

• Samuel Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" posits that future global divisions will be cultural rather than political
• Thriving Muslim and East Asian societies are expected to challenge Western dominance
• The United States needs to reassess foreign intervention and immigration policies to maintain its global role

The Post-Cold War World Order

• The Cold War world was divided into the free world (led by the US), the communist bloc (led by the USSR), and the non-aligned Third World
• This structure has dissolved, prompting questions about new patterns of association and conflict
• Nations are aligning along cultural lines and breaking apart along cultural differences

Key Civilizations Identified

• The West: Primarily North America and Western Europe
• Islam: A distinct cultural entity
• Orthodox Civilization: Russia is its leading state
• Chinese or Sinic Civilization
• Hindu Civilization: India is the major state
• Japan: Possibly a separate civilization
• Latin America and Africa

The Illusion of a New World Order

• The euphoria after the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) led to hopes for a Western-dominated world
• The idea that Western liberal democracy and capitalism would sweep the globe has not materialized
• History has not "ended" but has been renewed with dramatic and brutal conflicts

US Policy Recommendations

• Form a partnership with Europe
• Limit foreign intervention
• Reduce legal immigration to between 500,000 and 600,000

Counter Arguments and Contexts

• Islamic Revolution: Some see it as driven by cultural/civilizational forces
• Others argue that nations act out of national interest, irrespective of civilization
• Huntington says nations increasingly define national interests in cultural terms

The Balkans as a Case Study

• During the Cold War, the Balkans were divided (Bulgaria, Romania/Warsaw Pact, Greece, Turkey/NATO, Yugoslavia/Non-aligned, Albania/China)
• Yugoslavia split along lines that are characterized as nationalistic, religious, or civilizational
• Orthodox Serbs were supported by Russians; Catholic Croats by Western European countries; Muslim Bosnians by the Muslim world and, anomalously, the US

Western Culture's Uniqueness

• Western culture has unique elements, traceable back a thousand years
• Key aspects include the rule of law, separation of church and state, individual rights, and pluralism
• These factors enabled the West to modernize and influence the world, and other civilizations are now catching up

Modernization vs. Westernization

• Modernization: The desire for wealth, technology, and modern science
• Westernization: The adoption of Western culture, which many societies resist
• Some countries like Japan have modernized without fully Westernizing, adapting elements of Western culture

The Influence of Global Capitalism

• There's a debate about the extent of global capitalism's cultural impact
• Economic development may or may not equate to cultural development
• Western culture should not be equated with superficial elements like fast food or fashion

Potential flashpoints

• China could seek to re-establish its hegemonic power in East Asia, leading to potential conflict
• Historically, the US has opposed the domination of either Europe or East Asia by a single power
• The US may need to confront Chinese assertiveness### The Clash of Civilizations Theory
• The book "The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order" by Samuel Huntington is discussed.
• It posits that future global conflicts will occur along cultural lines rather than political or ideological ones.
• The book expands on Huntington's 1993 Foreign Affairs article, which sparked significant debate.
• Challenges the post-Cold War paradigm and the idea of Western dominance.
• Argues the world is no longer divided into a "free world," a "communist bloc," and a "non-aligned third world".
• Civilizations will align based on cultural similarities and clash where cultures differ.
• The end of the Cold War has led to a reshaping of global power dynamics.
• The United States needs to re-evaluate its policies in light of these cultural shifts.

Civilizations in Conflict

• Key civilizations identified include the West, Islam, the Orthodox world (led by Russia), and China.
• Islamic civilization lacks a single dominant state, leading to internal divisions and conflicts.
• Conflicts within Islam are seen as a refinement, not a contradiction, of the theory.
• Civilizations evolve through phases: warring states, times of trouble, and potentially a universal state.
• The Ottoman Empire represented a form of universal state within Islamic civilization, which has since disappeared.
• Competition for leadership exists within Islam, with countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia vying for influence.

The West's Declining Influence

• The influence of the West has been declining and will continue to do so as other nations modernize.
• Modernization leads to economic wealth, military power, and political influence in non-Western nations.
• East Asian societies are particularly notable in their increasing influence.
• There is resistance in some non-Western cultures (e.g., Islam, Confucianism) to Western values of human rights and democracy.
• These cultures have different cultural traditions which contrasts the West.
• During a meeting in Bangkok, Prime Minister Mahathir of Malaysia challenged the idea of Western values as universal.
• Mahathir asserted Asian values are universal, contrasting Western values as simply European.

U.S. Foreign Policy

• The U.S. should promote its values of human rights and democracy but recognize obstacles in different cultures.
• The U.S. should be cautious about interfering in other nations' internal affairs.
• Many countries have shifted from authoritarian rule to democracy, primarily those with Western cultures.
• Involvement in human rights issues should not be a key part of U.S. trade policy with China.