10 Questions
What is the main reason behind the temporary suspension of the Arctic Council?
Geopolitical tensions caused by the war in Ukraine
What is China's main interest in the Arctic?
Economic opportunities
What is the Polar Silk Road initiative?
A plan to increase trade between China and the Arctic states
Who has China collaborated with on hydrocarbon projects in the Arctic?
Russia
How does Russia view China's growing presence in the Arctic?
With distrust
Which countries has China pursued bilateral cooperation with on Arctic scientific research?
The Nordic countries
What is the impact of the Arctic Council's suspension of Russia on environmental and scientific exploration in the region?
It will have a negative impact
What is the potential outcome of a "Arctic Council 2.0"?
A more solid role in the region's affairs for non-Arctic states
What is the US's current role in supplying liquefied natural gas to Europe?
15 billion cubic meters
Why is climate change a national security matter in the Arctic?
It can lead to displacement of populations and conflicts over resources
Study Notes
- The Arctic Council has been temporarily suspended due to geopolitical tensions caused by the war in Ukraine.
- China, an observer on the Arctic Council, has growing Arctic ambitions and has outlined an ambitious Arctic strategy with its Polar Silk Road initiative and the 2018 Arctic White Paper.
- China's Arctic interests include economic opportunities, scientific research, and strengthening its ability to participate in and influence Arctic governance.
- China has collaborated with Russia on hydrocarbon projects, including a liquified natural gas megaproject on the Yamal Peninsula, and port infrastructure along the Northern Sea Route.
- Russia views China's growing presence in the Arctic with distrust and wants to prevent external powers from influencing Arctic affairs.
- China has also pursued bilateral cooperation with other Arctic states, especially the Nordic countries, on Arctic scientific research.
- The war in Ukraine and the latest moves taken by the Arctic Council cast a cloud over the outlook of China's Arctic aspirations, at least in the short run.
- Beijing has claimed that it would continue normal trade with Russia and refused to join financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.
- The U.S.-led restrictions on technology exports could substantially impact Chinese investments in Russia.
- Financing for Sino-Russian energy joint ventures primarily goes through China's two policy banks, Exim Bank and China Development Bank.
- The Arctic Council's suspension of Russia due to the Ukraine crisis will impact environmental and scientific exploration in the region.
- It may also provide an opportunity for the West to distance Russia and China, while reaffirming Arctic cooperation and sustainable investment.
- A potential "Arctic Council 2.0" may be supported by non-Arctic states, allowing for a more solid role in the region's affairs for countries like China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.
- Norway, a founding NATO ally, will uphold the sanctions regime and ensure solidarity with NATO and E.U. partners, but also needs to maintain its relations with Russia and China.
- Finland and Sweden may reconsider their stance on NATO membership, which could embolden NATO as a new forum for Arctic cooperation.
- Canada is likely to remain in lockstep with Washington and Europe on Russian sanctions, clearing the way for NATO to pursue a wider role in the High North.
- The near-term viability of the Northwest Passage as a safe, economical route for major shipping activity remains in question.
- China is likely still assessing the ramifications of the war in Ukraine for its Arctic interests.
- China may see a more cautious approach toward its cooperation with Russia in the Arctic best serve its own interests as it navigates through great uncertainty in the region.
- The western Arctic states should responsibly leverage China's desire for increased investment and voice in the region's development to tilt China away from Russia.
- The US has supplied 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to Europe.
- The US needs to increase domestic energy production to sustain deliveries to Europe and China.
- US diplomatic efforts may yield the reopening of Venezuelan and Iranian oil markets.
- Arctic cooperation is about to be transformed.
- Western Arctic states need a long-term view that acknowledges the benefits of sustainable Arctic development with China.
- Climate change is a national security matter in the Arctic, requiring Chinese cooperation.
- Western Arctic states should maintain and enhance cooperation with China while ensuring controlling interests remain local.
- These countries should keep China engaged in multilateral Arctic diplomacy.
- China must adhere to the agreed international legal framework in pursuing its Arctic aspirations.
- The authors are a federal executive fellow and a post-doctoral research fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Test your knowledge of China's Arctic ambitions and the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Arctic Council with this quiz. From China's Polar Silk Road initiative to its collaboration with Russia on hydrocarbon projects, this quiz explores the various aspects of China's Arctic strategy and the reactions of other Arctic states. See how much you know about the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Arctic Council, the role of NATO in Arctic cooperation, and the potential for sustainable Arctic development with China.
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