Hezbollah and Israel Tensions

Hezbollah and Israel Tensions

• Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel were building before the Gaza war, with Hezbollah investing in its ability to strike Israel by digging tunnels and developing missile systems.
• Hezbollah began reasserting itself along the border two years ago and has pledged to fight Israel in solidarity with Gaza since October 7.
• Israel can no longer tolerate Hezbollah's daily rocket and drone attacks across the border and wants to get citizens back to their homes in the north before the new school year.

Escalation and War

• A full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel would be even more destructive than the fighting in Gaza, with both sides vowing to inflict massive damage.
• Hezbollah could claim victory simply by surviving and depopulating the border area of Jews, while Israel's victory would mean pushing the group back 7-10 km from the border and destroying enough of its fighting power.
• Diplomacy is unlikely to forestall deeper conflict between the two sides, especially in the long term, as Hezbollah is unlikely to accept a diplomatic solution that doesn't address its concerns.

US Role

• The US role should be twofold: to deter direct, large-scale Iranian involvement and to target supply routes between Iran and its proxies more aggressively.

Hezbollah's Calculations

• Hezbollah's escalation is linked to the phases of the Gaza war, and it wants to be part of post-war negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
• Hezbollah is organically connected to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force and plays a role in Tehran's decisionmaking process.
• Iran does not want to be directly involved in the conflict and will only intervene if Israel threatens its nuclear program or its hold on political power.

Diplomatic Solution

• A long-term diplomatic solution requires reestablishing state sovereignty in Lebanon and addressing concerns over smuggling and sovereignty.
• A ceasefire with Israel cannot survive indefinitely without addressing these concerns.
• Deploying the Lebanese Armed Forces to the south would not help, as they have a history of colluding with Hezbollah and obstructing UNIFIL.

Israel's Goals

• Israel's main goal is to push Hezbollah's densely deployed elite units, the Radwan Force, away from the border.
• Israel has been targeting the group's key personnel and assets in southern Lebanon and the Beqa Valley, inflicting an estimated $1.5 billion worth of damage.

Hezbollah's View of Israel

• Hezbollah views Israel as divided and weak due to various factors, including the status of the Gaza war, domestic protests, and perceived divisions with Washington.
• Hezbollah may be content with the present situation and willing to attack commerce in the Mediterranean Sea.

US Diplomatic Efforts

• The success of US diplomatic efforts in Lebanon will depend on what occurs after Israel declares an end to "major combat operations" in Gaza.
• A formal ceasefire with Hamas seems unlikely, and an informal wind-down in Israel's Gaza operations may not be sufficient for Hezbollah to end its campaign in the north.
• Deploying the Lebanese Armed Forces to the south would not help, and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon has been an ineffective monitoring mechanism.