Global Economy: Fiscal Policy and Government Debt

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Questions and Answers

What happens to government spending and tax revenues during a recession when the unemployment rate increases?

  • Both government spending increases and tax revenues decrease. (correct)
  • Government spending decreases while tax revenues increase.
  • Government spending increases while tax revenues remain constant.
  • Government spending remains the same and tax revenues decrease.

How does the increase in budget deficit affect economic expansion?

  • A higher deficit always indicates economic contraction.
  • A higher deficit resulting from increased tax cuts can stimulate the economy. (correct)
  • A higher deficit indicates that the government is borrowing excessively.
  • A higher deficit is irrelevant to economic conditions.

What is a cyclical deficit primarily caused by?

  • Permanent budget policies.
  • Changes in tax legislation.
  • Long-term shifts in government investment strategies.
  • Economic downturns leading to increased spending and decreased revenues. (correct)

In what way does overseas borrowing help poorer countries?

<p>It fills the savings gap for necessary investments. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does an increase in the deficit indicate if it is a result of higher defense spending?

<p>A potential increase in aggregate demand. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What causes many developing countries to rely on overseas borrowing?

<p>Insufficient domestic savings to support necessary investments. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What fundamental issue is indicated by the savings gap in poorer countries?

<p>They cannot generate sufficient domestic savings for investment. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary difference between a deficit and debt?

<p>Debt is accumulated over time, whereas a deficit refers to money spent beyond revenue in a specific period. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What occurs if a country does not generate enough foreign exchange to finance necessary investments?

<p>It may have to resort to overseas borrowing. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which example best illustrates an automatic stabilizer?

<p>Unemployment insurance payments to laid-off workers (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In which scenario would a government typically experience a budget surplus?

<p>During periods of economic growth with high tax receipts (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What distinguishes discretionary policy from automatic stabilizers?

<p>Discretionary policy requires government action to be activated. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the structural budget primarily used to assess?

<p>Long-term fiscal sustainability (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a characteristic of a cyclical budget?

<p>It considers the effects of economic fluctuations on the budget. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A deficit indicates that the government is:

<p>Increasing its liabilities within a specific timeframe. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following strategies would likely be classified as a discretionary policy aimed at combating recession?

<p>Cutting taxes to stimulate spending (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was allocated a significant portion of rising government expenditures in Greece before the crisis?

<p>Public sector wages and benefits (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of GDP did Greek government expenditures account for as recently as 2009?

<p>50% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the revised estimate of the Greek budget deficit in 2009?

<p>12.7% of GDP (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the primary consequence of the government’s debt being perceived as too high?

<p>Higher interest rates on Greek bonds (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was notable about the three-year package of loans announced in May 2010?

<p>It amounted to €110 billion (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one of the immediate objectives of the austerity program introduced in May 2010?

<p>Achieve a significant cut in public spending (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

By what percentage points aimed the austerity program to reduce the budget deficit by 2013?

<p>11 percentage points (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one of the major drivers of Greece's increased borrowing costs during the debt crisis?

<p>Demand for higher interest rates by investors (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a major cause of the Russian financial crisis in 1998?

<p>Non-payment of taxes by the state (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which country experienced a dramatic increase in food prices during its financial crisis in the late 1990s?

<p>Russia (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one effect of the Argentine economic crisis that began in 1999?

<p>Severe decrease in GDP rates (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a consequence of the IMF's refusal to grant a loan to Argentina?

<p>Violent protests (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What action helped to stabilize the Russian economy after the 1998 crisis?

<p>Rise in oil prices on the international market (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor contributed to Argentina's economic instability in the late 1990s?

<p>Political instability and corruption (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

By 2008, what percentage of business assets in Greece was controlled by the state?

<p>50% (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What triggered the peso crisis in Mexico during the 1990s?

<p>Depreciation of the Mexican peso (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the inflation rate in Russia during the financial crisis of 1998?

<p>84% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which event is specifically associated with the 'Tequila effect'?

<p>The peso crisis in Mexico (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of GDP did the external debt of ASEAN economies increase to between 1993 and 1996?

<p>180% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a primary consequence of the oil price increase in the 1970s for emerging countries?

<p>Severe liquidity crisis (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What strategy did most states adopt in response to the liquidity crisis in the 1970s?

<p>Industrialization focused on exports (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which country received financial assistance from the US during the peso crisis?

<p>Mexico (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role did the International Monetary Fund (IMF) play during the Asian financial crisis?

<p>Allocating 40 billion USD for stabilization (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a significant factor leading to the depreciation of the Thai baht in 1997?

<p>High levels of external debt linked to real estate (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is primarily measured when analyzing the impact of the business cycle on the economy?

<p>Actual revenues, expenditures, and deficits (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes cyclical deficits?

<p>Deficits resulting from temporary changes in economic activity (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does an increase in exports generally have on the actual deficit?

<p>It often reduces the actual deficit over time (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does a permanent tax cut typically influence the structural deficit?

<p>It may increase the structural deficit over time (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential consequence of tightening monetary policy?

<p>Reduced spending, potentially lowering deficits (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential issue with financing government spending through borrowing?

<p>It is perceived as allowing for tax increases later (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is structural deficit considered more concerning than cyclical deficit?

<p>It reflects fundamental economic weaknesses (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is an implication of a government deciding to 'borrow now, tax later'?

<p>Future obligations that may increase tax burdens (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Government Debt

The government's accumulated debt, representing the total amount it owes to lenders.

Government Deficit

The difference between government spending and tax revenue in a given period.

Discretionary Policies

Government policies that are deliberately adjusted in response to economic changes.

Automatic Stabilizers

Government policies that automatically adjust to economic conditions, without requiring specific action.

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Public Works

Projects undertaken by the government to create jobs and stimulate the economy.

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Actual Budget

The budget that reflects actual government spending and income.

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Structural Budget

The budget that assumes the economy operates at full potential.

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Cyclical Budget

The difference between the actual budget and the structural budget.

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Structural Deficit

The difference between government spending and revenue when the economy is at its potential output.

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Cyclical Deficit

The difference between government spending and revenue due to fluctuations in the business cycle.

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Actual Deficit

The difference between government spending and revenue at the current economic conditions.

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Fiscal Austerity

A policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit by raising taxes or cutting government spending.

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Permanent Tax Cut

A permanent decrease in taxes that leads to a reduction in government revenue.

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Fiscal Stimulus

A policy that aims to stimulate economic growth by increasing government spending or cutting taxes.

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Monetary Tightening

A policy that aims to reduce the money supply and increase interest rates to control inflation.

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Potential Output

The amount of goods and services an economy can produce when all resources are fully employed.

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Recession

A period of economic downturn characterized by a decline in economic activity, increased unemployment, and a decrease in consumer spending.

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Oil Crisis

The rapid increase in the price of oil during the 1970s, leading to economic instability in many countries.

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Debt Crisis

A situation where a country owes a large amount of money to other countries or organizations.

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Export-oriented Industrialization

A government's strategy to increase economic growth by focusing on exporting goods and services.

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Currency Depreciation

A rapid decline in the value of a country's currency, often leading to economic instability.

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Speculative Financing

A situation where a country relies heavily on borrowed money to finance its budget, making it more vulnerable to economic shocks.

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Contagion Effect

The sudden and severe impact of a financial crisis in one country on other countries, especially those in the same region.

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IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a global organization that aims to promote international monetary cooperation and financial stability.

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Greece's Public Spending in 2009

Greece's government spending accounted for half of its total economic output (GDP) in 2009. Most of this spending went to public sector salaries and social welfare programs.

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Higher Interest Rates on Greek Bonds

When investors have doubts about a country's ability to repay its debts, they demand higher interest rates on loans. This is because they want to be compensated for taking on the risk of the country potentially defaulting.

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Global Financial Crisis Impact on Greece

The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 significantly impacted Greece's financial situation. Unemployment benefits increased, tax revenue declined, and the government's debt burden grew.

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Austerity Program

An austerity program is a set of measures taken by a government to reduce its budget deficit. These measures typically involve spending cuts and tax increases.

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Greek Bailout

In 2010, Greece received a €110 billion bailout package from the Eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help it manage its debt crisis.

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Greece's Debt Ratio Increase

Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 106% in 2006 to 126% in 2009. This signifies a significant increase in the amount of debt Greece owed relative to its total economic output.

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Greece's 2009 Budget Deficit Revision

Greece's budget deficit in 2009 was initially estimated at 6.7% of GDP. However, the government revised this estimate upward to 12.7% of GDP.

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Greek Deficit Reduction Target

The Greek government's budget deficit was targeted for a reduction of 11 percentage points by 2013. This reduction was a key goal of the austerity program.

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Tax now vs. borrow now, tax later

The idea that the timing of government taxation doesn't significantly impact the overall economic outcome. Government can either tax now or borrow money now and tax later to pay back the debt without affecting the economy's long-term health.

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Savings Gap

A situation where a country's saving rate isn't high enough to fund the investment needed for economic growth. This gap can be filled by borrowing money from other countries.

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Forex Gap

A situation where a country needs to import more goods than it exports to support its economic development. This means they need foreign currency to buy the required equipment and expertise.

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Higher Deficit due to Economic Downturn

The increase in the budget deficit due to an economic downturn. This happens because the government's spending on things like unemployment benefits goes up, while tax revenues fall.

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Government Stimulation

The act of stimulating the economy by reducing taxes or increasing government spending. This increases the national debt but can lead to faster economic growth in the short term.

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National Debt

The money that a country owes to other countries. This debt can be accumulated through borrowing to fund government spending, development projects, or other needs.

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What sparked the Russian Rubble Crisis of 1998?

The 1998 Russian financial crisis, also known as the Rubble crisis, began on July 17th, 1998. It was triggered by a combination of factors, including the Asian financial crisis of the previous year and a decrease in the price of raw materials like oil, metals, and natural gas, which constituted 80% of Russian exports. Crucially, the non-payment of taxes by the Russian state to the energy sector exacerbated the situation, leading to massive currency depreciation, productivity decline, and a chronic fiscal deficit.

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How did international organizations respond to the 1998 Russian Rubble crisis?

The 1998 Russian financial crisis saw a dramatic decline in the value of the Ruble, causing a surge in inflation and economic instability. The crisis was so severe that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank intervened by providing a significant financial package of $22.6 billion USD to help stabilize the Russian economy.

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What were the underlying causes of the Argentine economic crisis of 1999-2002?

The Argentine economic crisis of 1999-2002 was characterized by a prolonged period of economic recession, accompanied by high unemployment and poverty rates. This economic downturn stemmed from a sustained period of political and economic instability dating back to the military dictatorship of 1976-1983, exacerbated by events like the Falkland War in 1982 and the hyperinflation of 1989.

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How did the IMF's refusal to provide a loan exacerbate the Argentine economic crisis?

The Argentine economic crisis of 1999-2002 was further aggravated when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) refused to issue a loan of $1.3 billion USD, triggering protests. This refusal highlighted a disconnect between the Argentine government and the IMF over the effectiveness of IMF policies and the accuracy of their economic reports.

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How did Argentina ultimately handle its debt to the IMF?

While the Argentine economic crisis presented significant challenges, the country managed to resolve its debt to the IMF by 2006. However, this required Argentina to borrow from its own Central Bank at significantly higher interest rates (9%) compared to the IMF's rates. This strategy suggests that Argentina may have opted for a short-term solution with higher costs.

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How did the Greek government's role in the economy change in the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis?

Prior to 1990, the Greek government exerted significant control over the country’s economy, holding a 75% stake in business assets and regulating key sectors. By 2008, the state's ownership had decreased to around 50%, indicating a shift towards a more privatized economy.

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What factors led to the Greek financial crisis of 2009-2011?

The Greek financial crisis that began in 2009-2011 was driven by several factors, including excessive government spending, a large budget deficit, and a high level of public debt. Greece's inability to repay its debts triggered a financial crisis, prompting intervention from international organizations like the IMF.

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How did international organizations respond to the Greek financial crisis?

The Greek financial crisis led to a series of bailout packages from international organizations like the IMF and the European Union. These bailouts aimed to stabilize the Greek economy and prevent a wider financial collapse in the eurozone. However, these bailouts were accompanied by strict austerity measures that imposed significant hardship on the Greek people.

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Study Notes

Global Economy Mechanisms: Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Government Debt

  • Fiscal policy encompasses budgets and government spending, taxation, and influencing the economy.
  • Government debt is the accumulated amount of borrowed money to finance budget deficits.
  • Internal debt is owed to a nation's citizens, whereas external debt is owed to foreigners.
  • Fiscal policy and debt influence aggregate demand, and the interaction of aggregate supply and aggregate demand affects output, employment, and inflation.
  • Deficits signify government spending exceeding revenue; debt is the buildup of these deficits.
  • Discretionary policy involves policymakers adjusting policies based on economic trends.
  • Automatic stabilizers adjust tax rates and benefit programs automatically in response to economic fluctuations (e.g., unemployment insurance).
  • Budgets can be categorized as actual, cyclical, and structural, each providing different perspectives.
  • The structural budget accounts for the budget if the economy performed at its potential.
  • The cyclical budget compares the actual and structural budgets to assess the effects of cyclical business fluctuations on the budget.
  • There are various causes of debt, including a savings gap (where countries can't invest enough from their own resources) and a forex gap (when exports are insufficient to finance needed goods).
  • External debt financing options include bond financing (pre-1939), bank loans (during the 1970s), and official loans from multilateral development banks like the World Bank.
  • Debt crises, like the 1980 Latin American crisis, 1994 Mexican crisis, 1997-1998 Asian crisis, 1998 Russian crisis, and the 1999-2002 Argentine crisis, and 2009-2011 Greek crisis, often stem from various factors, including currency depreciation, economic downturns, and high levels of national debt.

Activities

  • Activities involve assessing the effects of various economic scenarios (tax cuts, export increases, monetary policy tightening) on various budget types (actual, structural, cyclical).
  • Questions analyze differences between automatic vs. discretionary stabilizers, discussing preferred choices for inflation and recession, and assessing the usefulness of discretionary stabilizers.

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