Global Economic Report 2023-2024

Study Notes

The Secretary General welcomes the exchange of prisoners of war between Ukraine and Russia, the largest since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The exchange was facilitated by the United Arab Emirates.
The Secretary General hopes for more prisoner exchanges and deescalation efforts.
The report by DESA, presented by Shantanu Mukerji, Hamid Rashid, focuses on economic performance and prospects, headwinds, and divergences.
Global growth for 2023 is expected to be around 2.7%, up from 2.3% in May 2023.
Global growth forecast for 2024 is lower at 2.4%.
The report finds that the world is struggling to reach the 3.0% annual average growth from 2019.
Developing economies growth remains relatively static at about 4%.
Inflation is expected to be around 3.9% in 2024, a significant decrease from 2022's 8.8%.- Inflation forecast over 10% for about a quarter of all developing countries in 2024, eroding purchasing power and impacting middle and low-income populations.
Economic growth in 2023 outperformed expectations, driven by surprise performance in US and Japan economies.
European Union growth plummeted, challenging Europe and some other countries.
In 2024, all regions except Africa and West Asia are expected to see growth, with Latin America having a slightly higher growth rate than the previous two decades.
Monetary tightening, limited fiscal space, weak global trade and investment, and rising debt vulnerabilities are significant challenges to growth and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.
Developed countries experienced a 10% loss in output between 2019 and 2023, while developing countries (SIDS and LDCs) experienced losses of 40% and 30%, respectively.
Fiscal space is limited across countries, with some developing economies spending over 10% of their revenues on interest and 25 spending as much as 20%.
Increasingly popular industrial policies are crucial for technological transformation, green transition, and climate goals but threaten to widen the gap between developed and developing countries.
Options for addressing challenges include avoiding self-defeating fiscal consolidation, advancing collaborative climate action, and enhancing international cooperation in science, technology, and innovation.
The US economy outperformed expectations, avoiding recession in 2023, despite high inflation and rising interest rates.
Household spending, a major driver of the US economy, remained strong in Q4 2023, and moderate spending slowdown is expected in H1 2024.
Economists disagree on the exact timing of higher interest rate effects, but past experience suggests a lag of 18-20 months.- The US and global economy are not expected to experience a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, according to the forecast.
The general economic environment is considered unsettled, with potential inflationary pressures and sustained high interest rates posing risks.
The financial system is facing challenges due to high interest rates and quantitative tightening, which undid earlier quantitative easing.
The tension in the Red Sea between the Houthis and Western militaries could lead to an oil supply shock and increased inflation, potentially causing further rate hikes.
The war in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine has caused economic impacts, particularly in Europe, where Germany experienced a technical recession in 2023.
The Chinese economy, which was facing property issues and domestic consumption challenges in 2023, is now forecasted to grow at a 4.7% rate due to government support through fiscal and monetary measures.
India's economy has been outperforming its peers with consistent growth above 6%, supported by stable inflation, fiscal support, and robust household spending.
The risks to India's growth include the potential for overheating, government tax collection modernization, and vulnerability to climate-related shocks, such as El Niño.
Russia's economy grew by approximately 2.7% in 2023 and is projected to moderate to 1.3% in 2024 due to inflationary pressures and the dissipation of earlier stimulus measures.
Russian economic growth for 2020 was unexpectedly positive, with a growth of around 1.2%, instead of the estimated contraction.

Description

This quiz covers the global economic report for 2023-2024, including topics such as prisoner exchanges, economic performance, global growth forecasts, inflation, regional economic challenges, and potential risks to the global economy. It provides insights into the economic performance and prospects of various countries and regions.