10 Questions
What impact does big tech companies and nation states investing in AI have on the market?
Drive the selection of potential winners early
Which company generated $25B in revenue a quarter from Azure?
Microsoft
What did Meta recently announce with a $20B budget in part to fund massive model training?
Allocation of compute budget
What is the primary role of Scale.ai and similar companies in the AI infrastructure space?
Offering data labeling and fine-tuning solutions
What was posited 18 months ago regarding the emergence of an open-source sponsor for AI models?
Amazon or NVIDIA is least likely to be the sponsor
What is the trend observed in generative AI regarding understanding over time?
Understanding decreases as time passes
What was the author's prediction regarding the frontier models market in 2021?
It would evolve into an oligopoly market
Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a contender in the frontier LLMs market according to the text?
Microsoft
What is the observed trend in the pricing of commodity models in generative AI?
Prices decrease annually as performance improves
Where is the primary source of funding increasingly coming from for larger model scales in generative AI according to the text?
Cloud providers / big tech companies
Study Notes
Generative AI and Frontier Models
- The market for Large Language Models (LLMs) is likely to become an oligopoly, with a few key players dominating the market.
- Frontier LLMs, such as GPT-4, require massive capital investments, making it difficult for smaller companies to compete.
- Current contenders in the frontier LLM market include closed-source models like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, and open-source models like Llama (Meta) and Mistral.
Funding and Investments
- Funding for frontier model training is increasingly coming from big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, as well as nation-states backing local champions.
- NVIDIA is also a significant investor in foundation model companies.
- Venture funding for these companies is relatively small compared to investments from big tech companies.
Cloud Providers and Revenue
- Cloud providers like Microsoft's Azure generate significant revenue, with Azure generating $25B in revenue per quarter.
- The investment in OpenAI by Microsoft (~$10B) is dwarfed by Azure's revenue.
- Azure's revenue growth is partly driven by AI, with a 6 percentage point increase in Q2 2024, translating to an annualized increase of $5-6B.
Infra Companies and Open Source
- Infrastructure companies like Braintrust, Scale.ai, and others provide various services, including evaluation, prompt playgrounds, logging, and proxies.
- The AI cloud stack is evolving, with different needs between startups and enterprises for AI cloud services.
- New cloud providers and tooling, such as Anyscale, Baseten, Modal, Replicate, and Together, are emerging to cater to startups' needs.
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