Gallup's Election Predictions

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Questions and Answers

Which of the following statements is true about public opinion polls and claims based on them?

  • The method used to conduct a poll is just as important as its general findings. (correct)
  • The credibility of a poll is irrelevant as long as its general findings are accurate.
  • Public opinion polls are only used to determine which candidate is in the lead.
  • Public opinion polls have no influence on political debates.

What does the term 'horse race' journalism refer to in the context of public opinion polls?

  • Journalism that investigates the personal lives of the candidates.
  • Journalism that focuses on the physical appearance of the candidates.
  • Journalism that reports on elections as if the most important aspect is which candidate is in the lead. (correct)
  • Journalism that emphasizes the importance of the candidates' political experience.

How can national polling influence political debates?

  • It determines the order in which candidates will speak during the debate. (correct)
  • It has no influence on political debates.
  • It determines which candidates will be allowed to participate in the debate.
  • It ensures that all candidates have an equal amount of speaking time during the debate.

Which factor should you consider when evaluating the accuracy of a poll?

<p>The methodology used by the pollsters (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might people be more honest in mailed polls compared to interacting with an interviewer?

<p>They are less likely to be influenced by social desirability bias (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What information should be considered when evaluating the accuracy of a poll?

<p>All of the above (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the information provided, what is one possible explanation for the incorrect polling results leading up to the 2016 election?

<p>Non-response bias (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one potential limitation of using social media as a source for public opinion data?

<p>The sample may not be representative (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one factor that can make evaluating the reliability of a poll difficult?

<p>Bias in sampling techniques (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one suggestion provided by the National Council on Public Polls to help journalists evaluate the reliability and veracity of polls?

<p>Ask and answer 20 questions before reporting on a poll (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, which factor may explain why polls may be inaccurate and unreliable?

<p>Social desirability bias (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, how did national polls project the outcome of the 2016 presidential election?

<p>Hillary Clinton would win (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, how did the election outcome in 2016 differ from the national polls?

<p>Clinton won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, what is the likely explanation for Trump's surprise win in the 2016 election?

<p>Undecided voters breaking late (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, which branch of government is sometimes responsive to public opinion polls, especially in the House of Representatives?

<p>The legislative branch (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the bandwagon effect?

<p>A shift of support to a candidate or position holding the lead in public opinion polls (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which branch of government may be influenced by the general mood of the nation?

<p>The judicial branch (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one way to gauge the accuracy of a pre-election poll?

<p>Measure the percentage point difference between the poll's estimate and the candidate's actual share of the vote (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

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