Gallup's Election Predictions

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Which of the following statements is true about public opinion polls and claims based on them?

The method used to conduct a poll is just as important as its general findings. (correct)

The credibility of a poll is irrelevant as long as its general findings are accurate.

Public opinion polls are only used to determine which candidate is in the lead.

Public opinion polls have no influence on political debates.

What does the term 'horse race' journalism refer to in the context of public opinion polls?

Journalism that investigates the personal lives of the candidates.

Journalism that focuses on the physical appearance of the candidates.

Journalism that reports on elections as if the most important aspect is which candidate is in the lead. (correct)

Journalism that emphasizes the importance of the candidates' political experience.

How can national polling influence political debates?

It determines the order in which candidates will speak during the debate. (correct)

It has no influence on political debates.

It determines which candidates will be allowed to participate in the debate.

It ensures that all candidates have an equal amount of speaking time during the debate.

Which factor should you consider when evaluating the accuracy of a poll?

The methodology used by the pollsters Signup and view all the answers

Why might people be more honest in mailed polls compared to interacting with an interviewer?

They are less likely to be influenced by social desirability bias Signup and view all the answers

What information should be considered when evaluating the accuracy of a poll?

All of the above Signup and view all the answers

According to the information provided, what is one possible explanation for the incorrect polling results leading up to the 2016 election?

Non-response bias Signup and view all the answers

What is one potential limitation of using social media as a source for public opinion data?

The sample may not be representative Signup and view all the answers

What is one factor that can make evaluating the reliability of a poll difficult?

Bias in sampling techniques Signup and view all the answers

What is one suggestion provided by the National Council on Public Polls to help journalists evaluate the reliability and veracity of polls?

Ask and answer 20 questions before reporting on a poll Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, which factor may explain why polls may be inaccurate and unreliable?

Social desirability bias Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, how did national polls project the outcome of the 2016 presidential election?

Hillary Clinton would win Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, how did the election outcome in 2016 differ from the national polls?

Clinton won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, what is the likely explanation for Trump's surprise win in the 2016 election?

Undecided voters breaking late Signup and view all the answers

According to the text, which branch of government is sometimes responsive to public opinion polls, especially in the House of Representatives?

The legislative branch Signup and view all the answers

What is the bandwagon effect?

A shift of support to a candidate or position holding the lead in public opinion polls Signup and view all the answers

Which branch of government may be influenced by the general mood of the nation?

The judicial branch Signup and view all the answers

What is one way to gauge the accuracy of a pre-election poll?

Measure the percentage point difference between the poll's estimate and the candidate's actual share of the vote Signup and view all the answers

Gallup's Election Predictions

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