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Questions and Answers
What is the main argument behind the idea that the current century or the next could be a critical phase for humanity?
The creation of super intelligence within a few centuries will pose grave risks, but if survived, the new civilization will have vastly improved survival prospects due to super intelligent foresight and planning.
According to the Recurrent Collapse Scenario, what will happen to technological civilization over time?
It will oscillate within a relatively narrow band of progress, with a chance of breaking through to the post-human level or plummeting into extinction.
What is the main difference between the Extinction Scenario and the Recurrent Collapse Scenario?
The Extinction Scenario assumes humanity will either go extinct or survive indefinitely, while the Recurrent Collapse Scenario assumes cycles of growth and decline.
Why does the cumulative probability of extinction increase monotonically over time?
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What is the potential role of super intelligence in the survival of human civilization?
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Why does the likelihood of the Recurrent Collapse Scenario decrease over time?
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What is a necessary condition for a pattern to finally be broken with probability one?
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What is a characteristic of the plateau scenarios in the context of technological growth?
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What is a possible reason for the plateau pattern to have more staying power compared to the recurrent collapse pattern?
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How does the cumulative probability of post-humanity change over time?
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What is a key difference between extinction scenarios and the cumulative probability of post-humanity?
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What is a plausible reason for the annual likelihood that a post-human condition would revert to a human condition to decline over time?
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Study Notes
Future Scenarios for Humanity and Technology
- Four future scenarios for humanity and technology have been proposed by Nick Bostrom (2004):
Extinction Scenario
- If humanity goes extinct, it will remain extinct, with a cumulative probability of extinction increasing over time.
- The current century may be a critical phase for humanity, and if survived, the life expectancy of human civilization could become extremely high.
Recurrent Collapse Scenario
- This scenario assumes technological civilization will oscillate within a narrow band of progress indefinitely.
- The probability of breaking through to a post-human level or plummeting into extinction decreases over time, but the pattern might eventually be broken.
Plateau Scenarios
- These scenarios predict that the level of civilization will remain confined within a narrow range, with a plateau pattern having more staying power than recurrent collapse.
- A plateau scenario may result from a very stable political system, propped up by increased powers of surveillance and population control, choosing to preserve its status quo.
Cumulative Probability of Post-Humanity
- The cumulative probability of achieving a post-human condition increases over time, similar to extinction.
- Unlike extinction, there is a possibility that a post-human civilization may revert to a human condition, with the annual likelihood of this reversion decreasing over time.
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Description
Explore the four future scenarios for humanity and technology as proposed by Nick Bostrom in 2004. Understand the implications of each scenario and contemplate the potential outcomes for human civilization.
