Nick Bostrom's Recurrent Collapse Scenario Quiz and Flashcards

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Questions and Answers

What is the main argument behind the idea that the current century or the next could be a critical phase for humanity?

The creation of super intelligence within a few centuries will pose grave risks, but if survived, the new civilization will have vastly improved survival prospects due to super intelligent foresight and planning.

According to the Recurrent Collapse Scenario, what will happen to technological civilization over time?

It will oscillate within a relatively narrow band of progress, with a chance of breaking through to the post-human level or plummeting into extinction.

What is the main difference between the Extinction Scenario and the Recurrent Collapse Scenario?

The Extinction Scenario assumes humanity will either go extinct or survive indefinitely, while the Recurrent Collapse Scenario assumes cycles of growth and decline.

Why does the cumulative probability of extinction increase monotonically over time?

Because if humanity goes extinct, it stays extinct, and the likelihood of extinction increases over time. Signup and view all the answers

What is the potential role of super intelligence in the survival of human civilization?

Super intelligence could provide vastly improved survival prospects due to its ability to provide foresight and planning. Signup and view all the answers

Why does the likelihood of the Recurrent Collapse Scenario decrease over time?

Because the longer the timescale, the more opportunities there are for the cycle to break through to the post-human level or plummet into extinction. Signup and view all the answers

What is a necessary condition for a pattern to finally be broken with probability one?

The chance of such a breakout meets to zero at an appropriately rapid rate. Signup and view all the answers

What is a characteristic of the plateau scenarios in the context of technological growth?

The level of civilization remains confined within a narrow range, with a smaller probability of remaining within this range as the timeframe considered increases. Signup and view all the answers

What is a possible reason for the plateau pattern to have more staying power compared to the recurrent collapse pattern?

The rise of a very stable political system, propped up by greatly increased powers of surveillance and population control, which chooses to preserve its status quo. Signup and view all the answers

How does the cumulative probability of post-humanity change over time?

It increases monotonically over time. Signup and view all the answers

What is a key difference between extinction scenarios and the cumulative probability of post-humanity?

There is a possibility that a civilization that has achieved a post-human condition will later return to a human condition. Signup and view all the answers

What is a plausible reason for the annual likelihood that a post-human condition would revert to a human condition to decline over time?

The development of critical technologies and the creation of self-sustaining colonies. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Future Scenarios for Humanity and Technology

Four future scenarios for humanity and technology have been proposed by Nick Bostrom (2004):

Extinction Scenario

If humanity goes extinct, it will remain extinct, with a cumulative probability of extinction increasing over time.
The current century may be a critical phase for humanity, and if survived, the life expectancy of human civilization could become extremely high.

Recurrent Collapse Scenario

This scenario assumes technological civilization will oscillate within a narrow band of progress indefinitely.
The probability of breaking through to a post-human level or plummeting into extinction decreases over time, but the pattern might eventually be broken.

Plateau Scenarios

These scenarios predict that the level of civilization will remain confined within a narrow range, with a plateau pattern having more staying power than recurrent collapse.
A plateau scenario may result from a very stable political system, propped up by increased powers of surveillance and population control, choosing to preserve its status quo.

Cumulative Probability of Post-Humanity

The cumulative probability of achieving a post-human condition increases over time, similar to extinction.
Unlike extinction, there is a possibility that a post-human civilization may revert to a human condition, with the annual likelihood of this reversion decreasing over time.

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Description

Explore the four future scenarios for humanity and technology as proposed by Nick Bostrom in 2004. Understand the implications of each scenario and contemplate the potential outcomes for human civilization.

Future Scenarios for Humanity and Technology according to Nick Bostrom

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