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Questions and Answers
What does pareidolia refer to?
What does pareidolia refer to?
- A type of scientific study
- A method of eyewitness testimony
- The imagined perception of a pattern or meaning where it does not exist (correct)
- A principle of folk psychology
Expertise is deemed to be specific to a particular field.
Expertise is deemed to be specific to a particular field.
True (A)
What are common factors that might inspire doubt in a statement?
What are common factors that might inspire doubt in a statement?
Inconsistency, lack of evidence, or conflicting testimonies.
In a majority of similar fundraising events, donations typically amount to ____.
In a majority of similar fundraising events, donations typically amount to ____.
Match the concepts to their definitions:
Match the concepts to their definitions:
What is the probability of bringing in $110,000 in donations?
What is the probability of bringing in $110,000 in donations?
Eyewitness testimony is generally not considered reliable.
Eyewitness testimony is generally not considered reliable.
What are the expected donation amounts when events do not perform as well as hoped?
What are the expected donation amounts when events do not perform as well as hoped?
What type of claim describes how the world is?
What type of claim describes how the world is?
Normative claims can be easily evaluated like descriptive claims.
Normative claims can be easily evaluated like descriptive claims.
Name one key difference between deductive and inductive reasoning.
Name one key difference between deductive and inductive reasoning.
Normative claims can be categorized into ethical and __________ claims.
Normative claims can be categorized into ethical and __________ claims.
Match the following terms with their definitions:
Match the following terms with their definitions:
Which of the following is an example of a normative claim?
Which of the following is an example of a normative claim?
Arguments that start by asserting an 'if...then...' statement are examples of inductive logic.
Arguments that start by asserting an 'if...then...' statement are examples of inductive logic.
What is a premise in an argument?
What is a premise in an argument?
What is the expected value (EV) of a lottery ticket with a prize of $1,000,000 and a 50% chance of winning?
What is the expected value (EV) of a lottery ticket with a prize of $1,000,000 and a 50% chance of winning?
The Gambler's Fallacy occurs when someone believes that past independent events influence the likelihood of future independent events.
The Gambler's Fallacy occurs when someone believes that past independent events influence the likelihood of future independent events.
What formula should you use to calculate the expected value when considering different outcomes and their probabilities?
What formula should you use to calculate the expected value when considering different outcomes and their probabilities?
If the chances of winning are 0.01, the probability of losing can be calculated as __________.
If the chances of winning are 0.01, the probability of losing can be calculated as __________.
Match the following probabilities with their corresponding outcomes:
Match the following probabilities with their corresponding outcomes:
What is the expected value of investing in a Customer Management System if the calculated EV is -$3750?
What is the expected value of investing in a Customer Management System if the calculated EV is -$3750?
The expected value can only be calculated for investments that always yield a positive outcome.
The expected value can only be calculated for investments that always yield a positive outcome.
If you invest $100 and expect a profit of $400 in one outcome and a loss of $100 in another outcome, what is the outcome if both outcomes have a 50% probability?
If you invest $100 and expect a profit of $400 in one outcome and a loss of $100 in another outcome, what is the outcome if both outcomes have a 50% probability?
What does the 'antecedent' in a conditional claim refer to?
What does the 'antecedent' in a conditional claim refer to?
Modus Ponens is a valid form of deductive reasoning.
Modus Ponens is a valid form of deductive reasoning.
Define Modus Tollens.
Define Modus Tollens.
If there is a fire, there is ______ present.
If there is a fire, there is ______ present.
Match the following logical terms with their descriptions:
Match the following logical terms with their descriptions:
Which of the following represents a fallacy in deductive reasoning?
Which of the following represents a fallacy in deductive reasoning?
Bridge principles must always be in the 'if-then' format.
Bridge principles must always be in the 'if-then' format.
What is an example of a generalization in inductive reasoning?
What is an example of a generalization in inductive reasoning?
What is one way to combat cognitive biases according to the provided strategies?
What is one way to combat cognitive biases according to the provided strategies?
Having explicit procedures in place can help combat groupthink.
Having explicit procedures in place can help combat groupthink.
What should bosses and majorities avoid when team members challenge their ideas?
What should bosses and majorities avoid when team members challenge their ideas?
Cognitive biases can be mitigated by conducting a __________ before major decisions.
Cognitive biases can be mitigated by conducting a __________ before major decisions.
What is the first stage in the pragma-dialectical theory of resolving disagreements?
What is the first stage in the pragma-dialectical theory of resolving disagreements?
When calculating expected value (EV), which of the following variables is NOT typically used?
When calculating expected value (EV), which of the following variables is NOT typically used?
Intellectual humility is the willingness to accept the limitations of one's own beliefs.
Intellectual humility is the willingness to accept the limitations of one's own beliefs.
Using formal tools can help mitigate personal biases.
Using formal tools can help mitigate personal biases.
What is the primary goal of argumentation in a critical discussion?
What is the primary goal of argumentation in a critical discussion?
What is the formula for calculating expected value (EV)?
What is the formula for calculating expected value (EV)?
The stage of ________ in pragma-dialectical theory involves participants settling on ground rules.
The stage of ________ in pragma-dialectical theory involves participants settling on ground rules.
Flashcards
Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value (EV)
The average outcome of an action if repeated many times, calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and summing the results.
Gambler's Fallacy
Gambler's Fallacy
The mistaken belief that past random events affect future outcomes.
Calculating EV
Calculating EV
To calculate EV (expected value), you multiply each possible outcome by its probability and sum the results.
Probability
Probability
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Lottery Ticket EV
Lottery Ticket EV
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Investment EV
Investment EV
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EV Example
EV Example
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Business Decision EV
Business Decision EV
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Pareidolia
Pareidolia
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Eyewitness Testimony
Eyewitness Testimony
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Folk Psychology
Folk Psychology
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Expert
Expert
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Expertise
Expertise
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Scientific Studies
Scientific Studies
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Expected Value
Expected Value
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Fundraising Event
Fundraising Event
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Premise Quality
Premise Quality
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Descriptive Claim
Descriptive Claim
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Normative Claim
Normative Claim
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Deductive Logic
Deductive Logic
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Inductive Reasoning
Inductive Reasoning
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Descriptive vs. Normative Claims
Descriptive vs. Normative Claims
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Logical Gap Between Claims
Logical Gap Between Claims
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Evaluating Normative Claims
Evaluating Normative Claims
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Antecedent
Antecedent
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Necessary Condition
Necessary Condition
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Sufficient Condition
Sufficient Condition
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Modus Ponens
Modus Ponens
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Modus Tollens
Modus Tollens
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Affirming the Consequent
Affirming the Consequent
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Denying the Antecedent
Denying the Antecedent
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Inquiry Questions
Inquiry Questions
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Disagreement
Disagreement
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Confrontation
Confrontation
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Intellectual Humility
Intellectual Humility
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Intellectual Empathy
Intellectual Empathy
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Fighting Cognitive Biases
Fighting Cognitive Biases
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Groupthink
Groupthink
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Procedures for Fighting Groupthink
Procedures for Fighting Groupthink
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Premortem
Premortem
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Culture (in decision-making)
Culture (in decision-making)
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Expected Utility (EU)
Expected Utility (EU)
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Study Notes
Lecture Notes 09.09.2024
- Investment Plan Example: Mr. Lee is considering two retirement investment plans, Plan A and Plan B, each with different probabilities of success and profit.
- System 1 vs System 2: System 1 reasoning is quick and reliable, but overly reliant on intuition and susceptible to biases. System 2 reasoning is complex and more cautious, but slower and requires effort. System 2 is necessary for effective reasoning.
- Linda Example: Linda's case study highlights how System 1 can be misled by representative descriptions that ignore other relevant information.
- Errors of Reasoning: Effective reasoning requires learning to identify and mitigate sources of error: Cognitive Biases.
Lecture Notes 09.16.2024
- Memos: In business, the best decisions are supported by thorough reasoning and clear communication. A memo has a set structure for effective communication.
- Memo Structure: A memo should have To:, From:, Date:, Subject:, and a body that explains the background of the situation, the reasoning, and the desired action in a concise way.
Lecture Notes 09.23.2024
- Expected Value: Used in decision-making, it helps determine the likely outcome of situations where probabilities can be assigned reasonably.
- Use of Expected Value: Involving probability, it can provide a tool to determine which choice creates the best outlook over multiple trials.
- Avoiding Guessing: When probabilities are known, avoid guessing or estimating, instead use established probabilities.
Lecture Notes 09.30.2024
- Claims and Basic Sources of Justification: These are points of support and reasoning.
- Example 1: Investment scenario with 3 possible outcomes.
- Expected value of Investment Scenario: Calculating a possible expected outcome from the given probabilities.
Lecture Notes 10.07.2024
- Diagramming Arguments: Understanding argument structure—analysis and evaluation, and separating premises (reasons) and conclusions.
- Claims and Premises: Arguments contain claims, including premises, propositions—statements that provide reasons to believe a conclusion.
- Embedded vs Asserted Claims: Understanding the difference between claims stated directly and those embedded within a larger argument.
- Analysis and Evaluations: Breaking down arguments into components and evaluating the strength and connection between premises and conclusion.
Lecture Notes 10.07.2024
- Hidden Parts of Arguments: Speakers or writers may leave components of their arguments unstated.
- Reconstructing Arguments: Steps for clarifying arguments from various sources, by recognizing premises, conclusions, and how they relate.
- Principles of Fidelity and Charity: Steps toward a better understanding of argument structures and ensuring faithful and charitable rendering of the arguer's point of view in their own words.
Lecture Notes 10.07.2024
- Argument Components: Arguments often consist of multiple parts, each playing different roles like premise (reasons) and conclusion (the point).
- Argument Diagrams: Visual representations of arguments, demonstrating relations between claims and their interconnectedness.
- Joint Premises: Some argument parts are interconnected in their logical support.
- Layered Arguments: Showing arguments, that rest on multiple parts that when considered together support a larger conclusion (argument).
Lecture Notes 10.07.2024
- Logic (Strong vs Weak Arguments):
- Strong Arguments: Premises provide excellent support for the conclusion. If the premises are true, the conclusion has to be true.
- Weak Arguments: Arguments that do not provide strong support, or have premises that need more support for the conclusion.
Lecture Notes 10.07.2024
- Deductive Logic: If the premises are true, the conclusion absolutely has to be true as well.
- Modus Ponens: affirming the antecedent
- Modus Tollens: denying the consequent
Lecture Notes 10.07.2024
- Fallacies:
- Affirming the consequent: a false type of argument structure whereby a conclusion follows from an invalid premise.
- Denying the antecedent: a false type of argument structure.
- Conditional statements: If a premise is an “if-then,” then it’s a conditional statement.
Lecture Notes 10.07.2024
- Simple vs Complex Arguments: Simpler arguments usually have few premises or reasons, compared to more complex ones.
Lecture Notes 11.04.2024
- Inductive Logic and Reasoning: reasoning from observations to broader generalizations.
- Generalizations and Patterns: Inductive logic reasons from particular observations to broader conclusions about a category of things.
- Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE): Reasoning to the most plausible explanation (with good criteria.)
Lecture Notes 11.04.2024
- Generalization: A type of inductive argument where a conclusion is drawn about a group of things based on observations of a subset of those things.
Lecture Notes 11.04.2024
- Simple Induction: Reasoning from repeated observation.
- IBE: Inference to the Best Explanation: finding the most reasonable explanation for an observation.
Lecture Notes 11.11.2024
- Recap of Argument Types (deductive and inductive)
- Fallacies: Errors in reasoning (bad logic or flawed premises.)
- Cognitive Biases: Psychological tendencies affecting how we process information and make decisions.
Lecture Notes 11.11.2024
- Argumentative Fallacies (Argument From Tradition, Appeal To Popularity, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc, False Dilemma, Straw Man, Appeal to Anecdote, Hasty Generalization, Appeal to Authority): Errors in reasoning that are common enough to have names.
- What these fallacies do: These fallacies can be used skillfully (or unintentionally) to convince others or even ourselves that something is true despite inadequate or flawed reasoning.
- Why are they important: Understanding these fallacies prevents us from accepting poorly-supported arguments and using them inadvertently or purposefully to persuade others.
Lecture Notes 11.18.2024
- Compound Probability and Insurance: Calculating the probability of multiple, separate events simultaneously, and related business decisions.
- Conditional vs Independent Probabilities: Understanding how the probability of one event relates to the probability of another.
- Expected Value (EV): Calculating expected values related to conditional probabilities to help understand and make possible decisions in a business context.
Lecture Notes 11.25.2024
- Creative Thinking and Virtuous Arguers
- Creative Thinking in Argumentation
- Argument Type, Fallacies, and Biases
Lecture Notes 11.25.2024
- Combining Arguments Different types of reasoning may work together to make a composite argument.
- Analyzing Structures Analyzing how premises and conclusions connect in an argument to get a deeper understanding.
- Resolving Disagreements Various ways of approaching or resolving disagreement (formal or informal processes).
Lecture Notes 11.25.2024
- Argumentation Schemes A set of rules for structuring how to present an argument that addresses objections.
- Practical and Formal Argument Forms There are different approaches to argumentation depending on the context.
Lecture Notes 11.25.2024
- Intellectual Humility: Recognizing your own knowledge limitations.
- Intellectual Empathy: Understanding the perspectives and reasoning behind other people's arguments.
- Intellectual Courage: Ability to be honest even with inconvenient or unpopular views and to confront your own biases.
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Description
This quiz explores key concepts in logic, such as deductive and inductive reasoning, normative versus descriptive claims, and the reliability of eyewitness testimony. It will challenge your understanding of various logical principles and their applications in real-life scenarios, including fundraising events and probability assessments.
