Fukushima Disaster Case Study

Case Study: Fukushima

• Japan has experienced many disasters and crises, including the Tokyo earthquake (1923), Kobe earthquake (1995), and Typhoon Hagibis (2019).
• Japan is well-prepared for natural disasters due to its history of experiencing them.
• Japan is located near the Ring of Fire, a seismic faultline of tectonic plates, causing significant seismic activity like volcanoes and earthquakes.

11 March 2011: Triple Disaster

• A triple disaster comprising an earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear event, also known as the Great East Japan Disaster or 3/11.

'Great Tohoku Earthquake' of March 11, 2011

• The earthquake measured 9.0 to 9.1 in magnitude.
• It is recognized as the most powerful earthquake ever recorded in Japan.
• Globally, it ranks as the fourth-largest earthquake in recorded history.
• The main island of Japan shifted 2.4 meters toward the United States due to the earthquake.

Impact of Original Earthquake

• Severe damage to infrastructure including inaccessible roads hindered crisis management.
• Power outages occurred due to severed power lines, which are mostly above ground.

Tsunami of March 11, 2011

• The tsunami reached heights of 3.5 to 9.3 meters.
• Some areas experienced waves over 30 meters high.
• 500 kilometers of Japanese coastline faced devastation.
• The water covered an area equivalent to 90% of Tokyo.
• This was the highest recorded tsunami in Japanese history.

Emergency Disaster Response After Initial Quake and Resulting Tsunami

• A Crisis Management Center and Disaster Countermeasures HQ was established in the Prime Minister's Office.
• Similar headquarters were set up in other ministries

Subsequent Efforts

• The northeastern Japan region was designated as a large-scale disaster zone.

Decapitation of Local Governments

• The extent of damages made regional/local crisis response coordination difficult.
• Local governments, crucial for crisis management, were largely wiped away.

Mobilization of SDF for Disaster Relief

• Self-Defense Forces (SDF), Japan's military, played a significant role in disaster relief due to the frequent natural disasters.
• Japan's SDF was mobilized to the maximum level for disaster relief.
• The largest-ever mobilization of the SDF involved over 100,000 troops mobilized for search and rescue within three days.

US Support

• Because of constitutional constraints and a vague military situation, Japan has a security treaty with the US.
• The US maintains several military bases throughout Japan under the US-Japan Security Alliance.
• Nearly 20,000 US troops from bases in Japan were deployed to support search and rescue efforts within days.
• The USS Ronald Reagan was redeployed to the Tohoku coast to provide additional support.
• Operation Tomodachi (friend) symbolized the importance of the Japan-US alliance.

International Support and Volunteerism

• 163 countries and 43 international organizations offered aid, including China, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US.
• Japan's civil society played a large role, with over 935,000 volunteers assisting in the region within the year.
• Volunteer centers were staffed by NGOs who coordinated disaster relief across Japan.

Disaster Relief Efforts Challenges

• Many areas became inaccessible.
• Local governments were decapitated.
• Over 300 medical institutions were destroyed, shut down, or unable to operate, leading to second options like, high schools.

Nuclear Crisis

• There were four nuclear power plants located on the northeastern coast of Japan.
• A 7 on the INES scale was recorded at Fukushima Daiichi.

Nuclear Reactor Information

• The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant has reactors 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
• Reactors 1, 2, and 3 were in operation during the crisis.

Effects of the Triple Disaster on Nuclear Reactors

• Nuclear reactors require an external power grid for cooling systems.
• The earthquake disconnected the reactors from the external power source.
• Backup power generators were in place to maintain cooling.
• The tsunami flooded the basements, rendering back up power generators unusable and stopping the ability to cool down the generators.
• Without cooling, water levels dropped, exposing the reactor cores, leading to overheating as well as a nuclear meltdown
• The reactor's outdated design led to a hydrogen leak, causing an explosion.

Nuclear Crisis Management: Actors Involved

• On-site workers still relied on information about the pressure in the reactors even though the power was shut down
• Off-site supervision needed to move a few kilometers away from the reactors due to control rooms that were unusable

Efforts to Restore Power and Ventilation Post Tsunami Flooding

• The 'Fukushima 50' stayed on site, despite the hazardous conditions.
• Hydrogen explosions occurred at several reactors, including reactor no. 1 on March 12 and reactor no. 3 on March 14.
• To keep the reactors cool, water-dropping operations and water pumping utilized SDF helicopters with a concrete pumping car.

Stabilization and Decommissioning Efforts

• Following the accident, the nuclear plant needed preparation for decommissioning.
• Efforts focused on minimizing radiation leakage into the environment.
• Total restoration was anticipated to take four decades.

Support for Displaced and Evacuated People

• Public buildings were repurposed as shelters for displaced or evacuated residents.
• Temporary housing options consisted of prefabricated houses, private apartments, and public-sector apartments.

Humanitarian Crisis

• Shelters became more people as residents were unable to return to their hometowns.
• At the peak of the crisis, 470,000 people were displaced
• 170,000 displaced due to the earthquake and tsunami, and 300,000 due to the nuclear disaster.
• In March 2012, 344,290 people were still displaced.
• In February 2017, 123,000 people were still displaced.

Long Term Consequences

• Focus is to support evacuees and reconstruct the impacted area.
• Focus on reviving industry and livelihoods
• Focus on decommissioning Fukushima Dai-ichi and ensuring nuclear safety
• Evaluating events and understanding the lessons
• Re-evaluating the future of energy security throughout Japan and whether nuclear energy should continue to play a part.

Politics and History of Nuclear Energy in Japan

• There was a history of pro-nuclear energy and technology in Japan as well as the trauma of atomic bombing and potential benefits because of the nuclear technology.
• To understand the causes of the 2011 nuclear disaster, research was done to determine if it could have been avoided.

Impact of Fukushima Disaster on Japan

• Troubled history of nuclear technology
• Disaster impacting Japan's energy security and the future of nuclear energy

Key Themes

• Energy security, nuclear governance, regulatory capture, the 'nuclear village', trauma, future of nuclear energy, and political culture.

TEPCO's Initial Explanation of Accident

• TEPCO claimed it was a natural disaster they had no influence over.
• 'Soteigai' as a Black Swan event (beyond what was expected, anticipated, or imagined).
• Experts and the public did not accept that explanation, viewing it as TEPCO shifting responsibility

TEPCO's Responsibility

• Useful way to argue against better preparations, stronger governance, and higher budgets.

Governmental Investigations Commission

• Investigated the incident
• Governmental (Government of Japan/Japan National Diet).
• Arose interest in investigating team outside of the government (Independent researchers).

Formation of an Independent Investigation Commission

• Established by the National Diet signifying Japanese politics due to it being the the first time the National Diet (parliament) established an independent investigation institution and highlighted its importance

Kiyoshi Kurokawa of Independent Investigation Commission

• Chaired by Kiyoshi Kurokawa (FNAIIC), former President of the National Science Council of Japan.
• It was stated that this was a man-made disaster and blamed Japanese culture/politics .

Independent Researchers Findings

• The causes of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station included technical failures as well as other societal factors.

US Occupation of Japan (1945-1951)

• Post-war US-drafted constitution tried to democratize and demilitarize Japan.
• The idea was to revert Japan back to relying on agriculture without military and nuclear activity.
• This focus changed due to the Cold War environment, with Japan as a strategic security partner for the US.
• Japan had been forbidden from conducting research on nuclear fission (1947), seemingly to exclude them from a nuclear future.

Yasuhiro Nakasone Influence in Japan Nuclear Industry

• Yasuhiro Nakasone played an important role in setting up the nuclear industry in Japan (1951-1955).
• Political and business leaders predicted much potential in nuclear technology.
• Nuclear tech to rebuild after war, brings industrial growth and profit, increases energy security, gains more power, gives Japan a soft deterrent.

Nuclear Management

• With the first budget of nuclear energy passed in March 1954, the nuclear industry was managed a national policy but operated by private companies.
• National government plans and authorizes whereas private electric companies operate.

Japanese Industrial Development

• Political economy of development
• Chalmers Johnson and his important work on Japanese industrial policy (1982).
• Japan is a 'developmental state', where the state and private companies combine (mix between capitalism and communism).
• Ministry of International Trade and Industry & ‘public policy companies': they set up public policy companies, use taxes to start up beginning industries on what they thought that was important.

Japan's 'Iron Triangle' Seeks to Dominate Area of Policy

• Made up of long-term strategic plans
• Nuclear industry as a ‘state-planned privately operated' industry

Nuclear Trauma

• Hiroshima bombing caused the whole city to disappear after.
• Survivors later set up organizations to fully ban nuclear weaponry
• Atomic bombing retold and kept alive in popular culture (e.g. comic books).
• As an example is a comic called “Barefoot Gen” that was serialized and adapted into television.

US Leadership

• US President Eisenhower spoke on the new reality of the world regarding the use of nuclear weaponry (1953).
• Important view that is still relevant.
• Proposed that there be an International Atomic Energy Agency that would diminish the potential destructive power.
• Nuclear material can and should be used for good.

From 1954-1956

• US ran pro-nuclear information campaigns and provided key tech for nuclear research to peacefully use.
• Nuclear testing at Bikini Atoll detonated 23 nuclear weapons from 1946 to 1958.
• Led to Japanese fishermen's exposure to atomic bombs.
• Sparked protests and fueled sentiment and anti-nuclear movement.

Godzilla in 1954 By Toho

• Godzilla reflects nuclear holocaust and is a critique against nuclear weapons.

Atoms for Peace Exhibition

• The United States Information Service (USIS) in Japan ran promotional initiatives.
• Exhibitions taught on the peaceful uses of atomic energy.
• Scientists, engineers, media figures and politicians promoted
• Goal to replace nuclear emotion with nuclear information.

Pro-Nuclear Movement

• Japan's largest Newspaper supported possession of nuclear weapons
• CIA Supported both Japan and US
• They sponsored Atoms for Peace Exhibits

Host Communities

• Locations with low levels of social cohesion, little ability to mobilize, impoverished areas, high elderly populations and offer financial incentives.
• When a nuclear plant comes to a location, it becomes a cycle of addiction (economies become reliant on the nuclear plant).

From 1980 Onward

• Due to the Chernoybl incident, the movement grew (more anti-nuclear)
• Media started censoring anti-nuclear songs
• There was professional and public backlash, a culture of self-censorship and constraints
• A stronger movement formed in the nuclear industry
• Accidents continued and it was increasingly obvious the tech was complex and dangerous
• End of Liberal Democratic Party Rule
• Bureaucracy has extensive regultoy powers.

Organizational Conflicts

• The INRO triangle: Politicians, Bureaucrats Japanese leaders
• Nuclear villages: Powerful groups that all had a common logic/agenda.

Capturing Regulators

• Charged with promoting, sector was regulatory, limited expertise and responsibility.
• Increased hesitance to flaws pointed out, which caused further distrust.

Anti-Nuclear Efforts

• Renewable and anti-nuclear efforts caused the public to side against nuclear energy.
• Japan wanted energy supply independence, but couldn't get this.

Japan Efforts for Energy Security

• There were trade and geopolitical tensions

Nuclear Tech and the Manhattan Project in the Second World War

• After realizing Nazy Germany was realizing alarming scientific discovery, lead to the development of Nuclear bombs.
• Bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki (these events are known as the nuclear fission).
• Important for 2 reasons; releases great amount of energy, reactions grow greater.

Scientists Discoveries on Fission

• Atoms such as isotopes can be split (in smaller amounts of released atoms).
• Uranium 235
• First nuclear reactor was built in 1942 by Enrico Fermi at the Universtiy of Chicago to produce Putionium, which was used to build the Fatman Nagasaki bomb

U-235 and Enrichment

• Needs enrichment for weapons creation (Oakridge)
• 1957: Created the International Atomic Energy Agency
• The Same Scientific discovery can be used for civilian purposes such as reactors (lower 3-5%).
• Enrichment and reprocessing are dual ues

Social Acceptance and Social Responsibility on Ethical Issues

• The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis started the conversation around these ethics.
• Mutually Assured Destruction

Three Problems of Sustainability

• Ethical and sustainable discussion
• There is a difference between nuclear weapon ethics and new energy ethical issues
• In the 80s, it was said that ethics has grown more broad
• Discussions grew after accidents and the thought expanded as well

Sustaining the Environment and Future

• Ethical and moral duty comes to the new tech.
• Must do these without jeopardizing the safety or for whom to sustain.
• Security in this sense is about intentional impact from outside (accidents are unintentional.

Waste and the Future?

• The non-proliferation treaty has the most important weapon
• IAEA Safety principles define protection,
• The safety, security and environmental friendliness issues, as well as Economic durablity, what are we using resources for?

Technical Components

• Need to mine/grind ores, enrich, fuel fabrication as well as use a nuclear reactor
• Spent fuel can be reprocessed, which reduces waste
• This is civil in purpose
• Japan has difficulty with its contaminated wate

Is Japan Safe From Nuclear?

• There is a three part standard (ICRP)
• Justification principle
• Optimization Principles (reducing radiation possible)
• Can expose radiation at certain doze number limits with 2018 value
• It was noted that nuclear waste was inaccurate and only refers to Nuclear energy.

Lecture 4 on Safe Culture

• Earth quake and Tsunami a profoundly manmade disaster.
• Must be safe at a lot as well as have social competence.

Four Energy Utilities that all have different service areas under Japans Control

• TEPCO was largest prior world before accident
• 1955, Atomic Energy Basic Act created which set nuclear energy regulation
• The goal was to shift from dependence and source dependency
• Some gaps in the government created for lack of proper compensation, oversight.

Japanese Response

• Design flaws.
• Nuclear Village mentality led to over confidence.
• The country had well secured hurricanes, but not earthquakes.
• Isolated focus on technology meant little training.

Lack of Responsibility

• Tendency to falsify bad news, this fed public distrust.
• This required a new reform on safety regulation.
• Tsunami research, early warnings went Unheard (8 meters from TEPCO).

TEPCO Corruption

• Collusion caused many of their failures
• Insular: defensive

US and Organizational Issues Contributed to the Inaction.

• Complacency is what caused failure
• There were four facts for failure or problems caused
• Not enough care by MGT
• Lack of flexible rule
• Lacked proper organizational management.

19 Onagawa and plant issues

• Plant was relatively unscathed due to strong construction plans (compliance vs ethics)

• TEPCO MGT tried to stay by falsifying data

• Geographical and political situations impact MGT Style, therefore the system had to be changed during times of certainty.

• Stochastic is variables that we estimate due to probability.

• Earthquake, electricity failures could disrupt these probabilities.

• With these probabilities, failure can occur.

Excel Simulations

• If S is bigger than R then failure will occur.
• Most complex has to know system details can be created as it could lead to Top Event.

The Event Tree- describes how an undesirable start/event may develop!

• It has intersections: AND
• It has all unions (or)!
• 72% or the sample is too low, there for data may be off a bit) but data gets better over time! But a series is always a danger!
• It is safer to parallel is much safer.

Fundamentals Of Science Safety

• How often a specific thing may occur based of X amount attempts.
• How to make something for both safe and security? Have several paths.
• "But having several things linked in series, each with almost-perfect performance, is bound to be unsteady"
• This is bad in a series- system. The only moment that the system fails is in case that all of its parts, fail simultaneously. If those parts are individual and unrelated, than its more likely to be a rare event. If all 3 fail.
• Can use and/or logic to get data
• Need to start to know when gate occurs!
• Earthquakes, electrical outages also can disrupt safety but are hard/impossible to foresee!
• Some data (not always for both better or better, it all depends of data is reliable) can be falsified

How Much does it Change!

• Can take time and will change based on external factors.

Three-Model Types

1. Rational actor

• What is the optimal choice during the time?

2. Organizational behavior

• What the routine was.

3. Governmental politics/Model

• Power struggle is what the leader is thinking- if the person likes you or even
• These is what it comes down on.

Risk

• Causes, conditions are technically known to all parts.
• Decision making occurs if things may go wrong.

The three are

• Allinos and Zelikow

1. The action of what will the gov do and accidental it can’t work

2. To process, collect the factors what will work

3. Clear order or preference

• How the rational decisions can be created/built! As well to do!
• Analyst is the best to know how the steps will start, and how the calculations can be set!

Is There Really Action?

• We have to do a lot can’t always is a good plan to create action.

1. So, there was all sorts of power being planned!

2. How do the SU make choices to go and make things start and grow! Because is how easy is to use that?

• To the parts in actions they can. - 4 groups can to do so and action.

3. If all things in power and make more to get that! How and the new ones that to power for all parts or actions?

• Where can do in action the parts?
• Each can use all own actions for that to do 8% as the model
• So, they was power but didn’t what was start are go.
• What can do with all good actions?

4. It not a action plan for help and what was started to bring to things?

• He and the most for the new ones can’t easy use be the time!
• With the power to get to help for that time.
• Make more the action and give so a new thing.
• It for long power use and that have will and to help so later
• And the good to hear is that we look

As of what the good

a). Make the parts help well • It can’t hear what the new is is the is for 1 it to help or a.

Model 2

what so good for the what the parts?

• In the that action how to what to easy with it.

Actions was parts so has been.

• All parts the with with the will to it for that! • Why with the 4 so? all what

All this Is Good

• Each are with how to power all parts the with start or are
• Make we was that can do will the! Actions it to that!!

With do that

• So to it the help! what and the action what?
• You cant to the get
• Have can you do we or that can
• Be or that is can’t go on.

To See What The New is all

• Start from the or are action.
• All all what and we are?

Make more

• Hear all with or is will to be can’t or hear 1 power 2 with new power to with actions!

Power to Know what To Help

• How help. for all that for what?
• Here the hear? What easy can new be action or or?

What With Parts? Is This Good

• what actions do now? hear where action parts all that power i). It see if and or power

In these new can do we is on get

• See with and power time see if there that
• can have not have?

What Can The New Start Or Start This Action To New Easy

• What with 2 or what to do I think what to be that all will make? Do all for a now!
• what in the new to power
• what see it 1 with the all you can all.

Dr. Peter?

• "See to do this easy way now." - what what. see the best? To easy action!

To Easy Time:

• The new what easy and do on get to can easy that power?
• Is we all can we?
• That is
• It with with?

You Is Now To Easy:

What all action good? What how can are help the parts?

• Is will help action will make this to start do it are?
• And is all is it I to see or not? Time you is in best!
• "It time so help".

Dr. Olders:

The new help, will know can they all: "New you to was."

• Power action all part? a) To Now. b) Or, what the plan to will now?

The Last Word.

• We know be now part to new the to. Or the the all get with all?
• Easy can be get or time so can You To: And time the new to the?

2. What To Do: Time, What The New Time To:

• See be was help all of new what do Do time it a help or to! Help All
• Was now, was new help see to. It I to or that and to be was the it.

3. In The New See, All Power.

• Or it to what, And help: Be help new what, What get the to in what can.

See power is well?

• Summary:* these notes talk about how different ways of managing things and actions, while also talking about which ways are better on power structures.