57 The Term Structure of Interest Rates- Spot, Par, and Forward Curves

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If the yield curve is downward-sloping, the no-arbitrage value of a bond calculated using spot rates will be:

  • equal to the market price of the bond. (correct)
  • less than the market price of the bond.
  • greater than the market price of the bond.

Given that the two-year spot rate is 5.89% and the one-year forward rate one-year from now is 6.05%, assuming annual compounding what is the one year spot rate?

  • 5.91%.
  • 5.67%.
  • 5.73%. (correct)

Using the following spot rates for pricing the bond, what is the present value of a three-year security that pays a fixed annual coupon of 6%?

  • Year 1: 5.0%
  • Year 2: 5.5%
  • Year 3: 6.0%

  • 95.07.
  • 102.46.
  • 100.10. (correct)

A spot rate curve is most accurately described as yields to maturity for:

<p>zero-coupon bonds. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The following spot and forward rates currently exist in the market:

  • The 1-year spot rate is 3.75%.
  • The 1-year forward rate one year from today is 9.50%.
  • The 1-year forward rate two years from today is 15.80%.

Given these rates and based on annual compounding, how much should an investor be willing to pay for each $100 in par value for a three-year, zero-coupon bond?

<p>$76. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An investor gathers the following information about a 2-year, annual-pay bond:

  • Par value of $1,000
  • Coupon of 4%
  • 1-year spot interest rate is 2%
  • 2-year spot interest rate is 5%

Using the above spot rates, the current price of the bond is closest to:

<p>$983. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Using the following spot rates, what is the price of a three-year bond with annual coupon payments of 5%?

  • One-year rate: 4.78%
  • Two-year rate: 5.56%
  • Three-year rate: 5.98%

<p>$97.47. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The one-year spot rate is 6% and the one-year forward rates starting in one, two and three years respectively are 6.5%, 6.8%, and 7%. What is the four-year spot rate?

<p>6.57%. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The six-year spot rate is 7% and the five-year spot rate is 6%. The implied one-year forward rate five years from now is closest to:

<p>12.0%. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A 2-year option-free bond (par value of $10,000) has an annual coupon of 15%. An investor determines that the spot rate of year 1 is 16% and the year 2 spot rate is 17%. The bond price is closest to:

<p>$9,694. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose the 3-year spot rate is 12.1% and the 2-year spot rate is 11.3%. Which of the following statements concerning forward and spot rates is most accurate? The 1-year:

<p>forward rate two years from today is 13.7%. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given the one-year spot rate $S_{1} = 0.06$ and the implied 1-year forward rates one, two, and three years from now of: $1y1y = 0.062$; $2y1y = 0.063$; $3y1y = 0.065$, what is the theoretical 4-year spot rate?

<p>6.25%. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The term structure of yield volatility illustrates the relationship between yield volatility and:

<p>time to maturity. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An investor who is calculating the arbitrage-free value of a government security should discount each cash flow using the:

<p>government spot rate that is specific to its maturity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The one-year spot rate is 5% and the two-year spot rate is 6.5%. What is the one-year forward rate starting one year from now?

<p>8.02%. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An analyst collects the following information regarding spot rates:

  • 1-year rate = 4%.
  • 2-year rate = 5%.
  • 3-year rate = 6%.
  • 4-year rate = 7%.

The 2-year forward rate two years from today is closest to:

<p>9.04%. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The current 4-year spot rate is 4% and the current 5-year spot rate is 5.5%. What is the 1-year forward rate in four years?

<p>11.72%. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Assume that a callable bond's call period starts two years from now with a call price of $102.50. Also assume that the bond pays an annual coupon of 6% and the term structure is flat at 5.5%. Which of the following is the price of the bond assuming that it is called on the first call date?

<p>$103.17. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The six-month spot rate is 4.0% and the 1 year spot rate is 4.5%, both stated on a semiannual bond basis. The implied six-month rate six months from now, stated on a semiannual bond basis, is closest to:

<p>5%. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A 3-year option-free bond (par value of $1,000) has an annual coupon of 9%. An investor determines that the spot rate of year 1 is 6%, the year 2 spot rate is 12%, and the year 3 spot rate is 13%. Using the arbitrage-free valuation approach, the bond price is closest to:

<p>$912. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The arbitrage-free bond valuation approach can best be described as the:

<p>use of a series of spot interest rates that reflect the current term structure. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Current spot rates are as follows: 1-Year: 6.5% 2-Year: 7.0% 3-Year: 9.2%

Which of the following statements is most accurate?

<p>For a 3-year annual pay coupon bond, the first coupon can be discounted at 6.5%, the second coupon can be discounted at 7.0%, and the third coupon plus maturity value can be discounted at 9.2% to find the bond's arbitrage-free value. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A three-year annual coupon bond has a par value of $1,000 and a coupon rate of 5.5%. The spot rate for year 1 is 5.2%, the spot rate for year two is 5.5%, and the spot rate for year three is 5.7%. The value of the coupon bond is closest to:

<p>$995.06. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The 3-year annual spot rate is 7%, the 4-year annual spot rate is 7.5%, and the 5-year annual spot rate is 8%. The 1-year forward rate four years from now is closest to:

<p>10%. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given that the one-year spot rate is 6.05% and the two-year spot rate is 7.32%, assuming annual compounding what is the one-year forward rate starting one year from now?

<p>8.61%. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A yield curve for coupon bonds is composed of yields on bonds with similar:

<p>issuers. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An investor wants to take advantage of the 5-year spot rate, currently at a level of 4.0%. Unfortunately, the investor just invested all of his funds in a 2-year bond with a yield of 3.2%. The investor contacts his broker, who tells him that in two years he can purchase a 3-year bond and end up with the same return currently offered on the 5-year bond. What 3-year forward rate beginning two years from now will allow the investor to earn a return equivalent to the 5-year spot rate?

<p>4.5%. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the current two-year spot rate is 6% while the one-year forward rate for one year is 5%, what is the current spot rate for one year?

<p>7.0%. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A 2-year option-free bond (par value of $1,000) has an annual coupon of 6%. An investor determines that the spot rate for year 1 is 5% and the year 2 spot rate is 8%. The bond price is closest to:

<p>$966. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The 3-year spot rate is 10%, and the 4-year spot rate is 10.5%. What is the 1-year forward rate 3 years from now?

<p>12.0%. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The Treasury spot rate yield curve is closest to which of the following curves?

<p>Zero-coupon bond yield curve. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Assume the following government spot yield curve. One-year rate: 5% Two-year rate: 6% Three-year rate: 7%

If a 3-year annual-pay government bond has a coupon of 6%, its yield to maturity is closest to:

<p>6.92%. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A 10-year spot rate is least likely the:

<p>yield-to-maturity on a 10-year coupon bond. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The one-year spot rate is 7.00%. One-year forward rates are 8.15% one year from today, 10.30% two years from today, and 12.00% three years from today. The value today of a 4-year, $1,000 par value, zero-coupon bond is closest to:

<p>$700. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given that the 2-year spot rate is 5.76% and the 3-year spot rate is 6.11%, what is the 1-year forward rate starting two years from now?

<p>6.81%. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A 4 percent Treasury bond has 2.5 years to maturity. Spot rates are as follows:

Term Rate
6 month 2%
1 year 2.5%
1.5 years 3%
2 years 4%
2.5 years 6%

The note is currently selling for $976. Determine the arbitrage profit, if any, that is possible.

<p>$19.22. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements regarding zero-coupon bonds and spot interest rates is CORRECT?

<p>Price appreciation creates all of the zero-coupon bond's return. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

No-Arbitrage Bond Value

The value of a bond calculated using spot rates, where no arbitrage opportunities exist, equals market price.

Spot Rate Curve

Spot rate curve illustrates yields for single payments across various future periods.

Arbitrage-Free Value

Determined by discounting each cash flow by the appropriate spot rate.

Term Structure of Yield Volatility

Illustrates the relationship between yield volatility and time to maturity.

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Treasury Spot Rate Yield Curve

The Treasury spot rate yield curve shows rates for discounting single cash flows. Conceptually, equivalent to yields on zero-coupon bonds.

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Zero-Coupon Bond Returns

Zero-coupon bonds return comes from price appreciation, eliminating coupon reinvestment uncertainty.

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Spot Rates Role

Current spot rates have nothing to do with the bond's yield to maturity.

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Yield Curve

Yield curves for coupon bonds are typically constructed for bonds of the same or similar type issuers.

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Downward-sloping Yield Curve

When the yield curve is downward sloping, the no-arbitrage value of a bond calculated using spot rates will be equal to the market price of the bond.

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Defining Spot Rates

Spot rates are yields to maturity on zero-coupon bonds and are used to discount future cash flows of a bond.

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Zero-Coupon Bond Discount Rate

The discount rate on an N-year, zero-coupon bond is the spot rate for Year N.

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Bond Value Calculation with Spot Rates

Determine the price of the bond by discounting each of the annual payments by the appropriate spot rate and finding the sum of the present values.

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Three-Year Spot Rate Formula

The equation for the three-year spot rate, S3, is (1 + S1)(1 + 1y1y)(1 + 2y1y) = (1 + S3)3. Also, (1 + S₁)(1 + 1y1y) = (1 + S₂)². So, (1 + 2y1y) = (1 + S3)³ / (1 + S2)².

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Arbitrage-Free Value of Government Security

A government bond's arbitrage-free value, each cash flow is discounted using the government spot rate that is specific to the maturity of the cash flow.

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Calculating Forward Rates

The one-year forward rate one year from now and can be caluclated as follows: One-year forward rate = 1.065^2 / 1.05 – 1 = 8.02%

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Spot Rates Definition

Spot interest rates used to discount a single cash flow to be received in the future.

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Callable Bond Price Computation

The price of a callable bond is computed as follows: Bond price = 6/1.055 + (102.50 + 6)/1.055^2= $103.17

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1-Year Forward Rate

Implied 1-year forward rate in four years = (1+S5)^5 / (1+S4)^4 -1.

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Price Calculation using Spot Rate

To determine the price of the bond by discounting each of the annual payments by the appropriate spot rate and finding the sum of the present values.

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Study Notes

  • If the yield curve is downward-sloping, a bond's no-arbitrage value calculated using spot rates will equal the market price of the bond, assuming no arbitrage opportunities.
  • Given a two-year spot rate of 5.89% and a one-year forward rate one-year from now of 6.05%, the one-year spot rate is 5.73% assuming annual compounding.
    • spot rate0,1=(1+spot rate0,2)^2/(1+forward rate1,2)^1 -1 = (1+0.0589)^2/(1+0.0605)^1 -1 = 5.73%
  • The present value of a three-year security with a fixed annual coupon of 6%, given spot rates for Year 1 (5.0%), Year 2 (5.5%), and Year 3 (6.0%), is $100.10.
    • Present Value = 6/1.05 + 6/1.055^2 + 106/1.06^3 = 100.10
  • A spot rate curve accurately describes yields to maturity for zero-coupon bonds, as it illustrates yields for single payments made in various future periods.
  • With a 1-year spot rate of 3.75%, a 1-year forward rate one year from today of 9.50%, and a 1-year forward rate two years from today of 15.80%, each $100 in par value for a three-year, zero-coupon bond should cost $76.
    • (1 + Z3)³ = (1.0375) × (1.095) × (1.158) = 1.31556
    • Z3 = (1.31556)^(1/3) - 1 = 0.0957 = 9.573%
    • N = 3; I/Y = 9.57; FV = 100; CPT PV = -76.02
  • For a 2-year, annual-pay bond with a par value of $1,000 and a coupon of 4%, using spot rates of 2% for the 1-year and 5% for the 2-year, the current price of the bond is closest to $983.
    • Bond Price = 40/(1.02) + 1,040/(1.05)^2 = $982.53
  • For a three-year bond with annual coupon payments of 5%, given spot rates of 4.78% (one-year), 5.56% (two-year), and 5.98% (three-year), the price is $97.47.
    • Bond Price = (5 / 1.0478) + (5 / 1.0556^2) + (105 / 1.0598^3) = $97.47
  • With a one-year spot rate of 6% and one-year forward rates starting in one, two, and three years of 6.5%, 6.8%, and 7% respectively, the four-year spot rate is 6.57%.
    • Four-year spot rate = [(1 + 0.06)(1 + 0.065)(1 + 0.068)(1 + 0.07) ]^(1/4) – 1 = 6.57%
  • If the six-year spot rate is 7% and the five-year spot rate is 6%, the implied one-year forward rate five years from now is closest to 12.0%.
    • 5y1y= [(1 + S6)^6 / (1 + S5)^5] - 1 = [(1.07)^6/(1.06)^5] – 1 = [1.5 / 1.338] - 1 = 0.12
  • A 2-year option-free bond ($10,000 par value) with a 15% annual coupon has a price closest to $9,694, using spot rates of 16% for year 1 and 17% for year 2.
    • Price = [1,500/(1.16)] + [11,500/(1.17)^2] = $9,694
  • The three-year spot rate is 12.1%, and the two-year spot rate is 11.3%. The one-year forward rate two years from today is 13.7%.
    • (1 + 2y1y) = (1 + S3)³ / (1 + S2)² , computed as: (1 + 0.121)³ / (1 + 0.113)² = 1.137. Thus, 2y1y = 0.137, or 13.7%.
  • With a one-year spot rate S₁ = 0.06 and implied 1-year forward rates one, two, and three years from now of: 1y1y = 0.062; 2y1y = 0.063; 3y1y = 0.065, the theoretical 4-year spot rate is 6.25%.
    • S4 = [ (1.06) (1.062) (1.063) (1.065) ]^(0.25) – 1 = 6.25%.
  • The term structure of yield volatility shows the relationship between yield volatility and time to maturity.
  • An investor calculating the arbitrage-free value of a government security should discount each cash flow using the government spot rate specific to its maturity.
  • A one-year spot rate is 5%, while the two-year spot rate is 6.5%. The one-year forward rate starting one year from now is 8.02%.
    • One-year forward rate = 1.065^2 / 1.05 – 1 = 8.02%
  • Spot rates: 1-year rate = 4%, 2-year rate = 5%, 3-year rate = 6%, 4-year rate = 7%. The 2-year forward rate two years from today is closest to 9.04%.
    • √((1.07)^4/(1.05)^2) - 1 = 0.0904, or
  • The current 4-year spot rate is 4% and the current 5-year spot rate is 5.5%. The 1-year forward rate in four years is 11.72%.
    • 4y1y=((1.055)^5/(1.04)^4)-1=0.1172
  • A callable bond has a call period that starts two years from now with a call price of $102.50. The bond pays an annual coupon of 6% and the term structure is flat at 5.5%. The price of the bond is 103.17 if it is called on the first call date.
    • Bond price = 6/1.055 + (102.50 + 6)/1.055^2= $103.17
  • The six-month spot rate is 4.0% and the 1 year spot rate is 4.5%, both stated on a semiannual bond basis. The implied six-month rate six months from now, stated on a semiannual bond basis, is 5%.
    • 6m6m/2 = [(1 + S2/2)² / (1 + S₁/2)¹] - 1 = [(1.0225)²/(1.02)¹] - 1
  • A 3-year option-free bond (par value of $1,000) has an annual coupon of 9%. The year 1 spot rate is 6%, year 2 spot rate is 12%, and year 3 spot rate is 13%. The bond price is closest to $912 using the arbitrage-free valuation approach.
    • Price = [90 / (1.06)] + [90 / (1.12)²] + [1,090 / (1.13)³] = $912.08
  • The arbitrage-free bond valuation approach can best be described as the use of a series of spot interest rates that reflect the current term structure.
  • For a 3-year annual pay coupon bond, the first coupon can be discounted at 6.5%, the second coupon can be discounted at 7.0%, and the third coupon plus maturity value can be discounted at 9.2% to find the bond's arbitrage-free value.
  • A three-year annual coupon bond has a par value of $1,000 and a coupon rate of 5.5%. The spot rate for year 1 is 5.2%, the spot rate for year two is 5.5%, and the spot rate for year three is 5.7%. The value of the coupon bond is closest to $995.06.
    • N = 1; I/Y = 5.2%; FV = $55; CPT → PV = -$52.28.
    • N = 2; I/Y = 5.5%; FV = $55; CPT → PV = -$49.42.
    • N = 3; I/Y = 5.7%; FV = $1,055;PMT=0 CPT → PV = -$893.36.
  • The 3-year annual spot rate is 7%, the 4-year annual spot rate is 7.5%, and the 5-year annual spot rate is 8%. The 1-year forward rate four years from now is closest to 10%.
  • Given the one-year spot rate is 6.05% and the two-year spot rate is 7.32%, assuming annual compounding what is the one-year forward rate starting one year from now is 8.61%.
  • A yield curve for coupon bonds is composed of yields on bonds with similar: issuers.
  • An investor wants to take advantage of the 5-year spot rate, currently at a level of 4.0%, but he invested in a 2-year bond with a yield of 3.2%. A broker suggests buying a 3-year bond in two years to match the 5-year bond's return. The 3-year forward rate should be 4.5%.
    • (1.04^5 / 1.032^2)^(1/3) – 1 = 4.5%.
  • If the current two-year spot rate is 6% while the one-year forward rate for one year is 5%, the current spot rate for one year is 7.0%.
    • (1 + 1y1y)(1 + s1) = (1 + s2)2 →S₁ = 0.07 or 7%
  • A 2-year option-free bond (par value of $1,000) has an annual coupon of 6%. The spot rate for year 1 is 5% and the year 2 spot rate is 8%. The bond price is closest to $966. Price = 57.14 + 908.78 = $966.
  • The 3-year spot rate is 10%, and the 4-year spot rate is 10.5%. The one-year forward rate 3 years from now is 12.0%. [(1 + S₄)^4 / (1 + S3)³] − 1 = 12.01% = 12%.
  • The Treasury spot rate yield curve is identical to the zero-coupon bond yield curve.
  • Assuming a spot yield curve of: One-year rate: 5%, Two-year rate: 6%, Three-year rate: 7%. If a 3-year annual-pay government bond has a coupon of 6%, its yield to maturity is closes to 6.92%.
    • = 6 / 1.05 + 6 / (1.06)² + 106 / (1.07)³ = 5.71 + 5.34 + 86.53 = 97.58
    • N = 3; PMT = 6; FV = 100; PV = -97.58; CPT → I/Y = 6.92%
  • A 10-year spot rate is least likely the yield-to-maturity on a 10-year coupon bond.
  • With the one-year spot rate at 7.00% and one-year forward rates at 8.15% (one year from today), 10.30% (two years from today), and 12.00% (three years from today), the value today of a 4-year, $1,000 par value, zero-coupon bond is $640.
    • 1 = 9.35%. Bond value: N = 4; FV = 1,000; I/Y = 9.35; PMT = 0; CPT → PV = –699.40
  • The 2-year spot rate is 5.76% and the 3-year spot rate is 6.11%, the 1-year forward rate starting two years from now is 6.81%.
    • (1 + S3)³ = (1 + S2)²(1 + 2y1y) →2y1y = 6.81%
  • A 4% Treasury bond has 2.5 years to maturity. Given the spot rates are: 6 month: 2%, 1 year: 2.5%, 1.5 years: 3%, 2 years: 4%, 2.5 years: 6%. If the note is selling for $976, there is an arbitrage profit of $19.22.
    • 19.80 + 19.51 + 19.13 + 18.48 + 879.86 = $956.78
    • 976-956.78 = $19.22
  • Price appreciation creates all of the zero-coupon bond's return.

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