Podcast
Questions and Answers
What significant event in 2008 contributed to the slowdown of India's export growth?
What significant event in 2008 contributed to the slowdown of India's export growth?
What was the peak percentage of GDP that India’s investment reached within four years during the early 2000s?
What was the peak percentage of GDP that India’s investment reached within four years during the early 2000s?
How did global commodity prices affect Indian agriculture post-GFC?
How did global commodity prices affect Indian agriculture post-GFC?
What was the growth rate of India's exports before the Global Financial Crisis compared to after?
What was the growth rate of India's exports before the Global Financial Crisis compared to after?
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What was the perception regarding India’s economy in the early 2000s?
What was the perception regarding India’s economy in the early 2000s?
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How did capital inflows change in India during the years leading to the Global Financial Crisis?
How did capital inflows change in India during the years leading to the Global Financial Crisis?
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Which country was mentioned as outperforming India in manufacturing exports post-GFC?
Which country was mentioned as outperforming India in manufacturing exports post-GFC?
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What trend occurred in real agricultural income growth from 2012-2018 compared to 2002-2011?
What trend occurred in real agricultural income growth from 2012-2018 compared to 2002-2011?
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What was the approximate reduction in NPA ratios achieved by banks since 2014?
What was the approximate reduction in NPA ratios achieved by banks since 2014?
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What is the estimated total amount of NPAs that remains unresolved?
What is the estimated total amount of NPAs that remains unresolved?
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What percentage of bank assets represent NPAs in public sector banks?
What percentage of bank assets represent NPAs in public sector banks?
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How does the NPA ratio of banks in India compare with that of the United States during the GFC?
How does the NPA ratio of banks in India compare with that of the United States during the GFC?
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What has been the effect of writing off loans on the stock of outstanding credit?
What has been the effect of writing off loans on the stock of outstanding credit?
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What has happened to public sector bank credit growth in recent years?
What has happened to public sector bank credit growth in recent years?
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How much in debts are being negotiated as inter-creditor agreements, primarily in the power sector?
How much in debts are being negotiated as inter-creditor agreements, primarily in the power sector?
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What was the peak NPA ratio of bank assets recorded in 2017-18?
What was the peak NPA ratio of bank assets recorded in 2017-18?
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What is the central focus of the reform that should be prioritized in policy navigation?
What is the central focus of the reform that should be prioritized in policy navigation?
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According to the content, which aspect is essential for shaping private actions?
According to the content, which aspect is essential for shaping private actions?
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What immediate task is suggested for the government in response to unreliable data?
What immediate task is suggested for the government in response to unreliable data?
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Which policy question is NOT mentioned as confronting Indian policymakers?
Which policy question is NOT mentioned as confronting Indian policymakers?
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Who is suggested as a potential leader for the data committee to address measurement issues?
Who is suggested as a potential leader for the data committee to address measurement issues?
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Which concept illustrates the connection between confidence and behavior change mentioned in the content?
Which concept illustrates the connection between confidence and behavior change mentioned in the content?
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What is a potential consequence of unreliable data for policymakers?
What is a potential consequence of unreliable data for policymakers?
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Which of the following best summarizes the main argument regarding reliable data?
Which of the following best summarizes the main argument regarding reliable data?
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What is one of the primary factors attributed to the recent slowdown in aggregate demand by cyclicalists?
What is one of the primary factors attributed to the recent slowdown in aggregate demand by cyclicalists?
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What is the significance of the year 2011/12 in the context of the discussed economic trends?
What is the significance of the year 2011/12 in the context of the discussed economic trends?
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According to the structuralist argument, why is it challenging to explain the recent economic deceleration?
According to the structuralist argument, why is it challenging to explain the recent economic deceleration?
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What is the income inequality hypothesis proposed by Roy regarding economic growth in India since 1991?
What is the income inequality hypothesis proposed by Roy regarding economic growth in India since 1991?
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What criticism does the structuralist argument face regarding the sudden economic deceleration?
What criticism does the structuralist argument face regarding the sudden economic deceleration?
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What factors have driven India's growth medium-term since 1991, according to the discussion?
What factors have driven India's growth medium-term since 1991, according to the discussion?
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What role has demonetization played in the slowdown of aggregate demand?
What role has demonetization played in the slowdown of aggregate demand?
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Which of the following statements best reflects the cyclical perspective on economic growth in India?
Which of the following statements best reflects the cyclical perspective on economic growth in India?
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What is the total amount of debt admitted for the firms listed in the resolution status table?
What is the total amount of debt admitted for the firms listed in the resolution status table?
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Which acquirer successfully resolved the highest amount of debt among the completed cases?
Which acquirer successfully resolved the highest amount of debt among the completed cases?
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What is indicated by the recovery rate for Jyoti Structures?
What is indicated by the recovery rate for Jyoti Structures?
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What is the current status of Bhushan Power and Steel according to the resolution table?
What is the current status of Bhushan Power and Steel according to the resolution table?
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What issue does the ongoing situation of stressed enterprises highlight?
What issue does the ongoing situation of stressed enterprises highlight?
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How much of the resolved amount is attributed to Electrosteel's completed resolution?
How much of the resolved amount is attributed to Electrosteel's completed resolution?
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What is the main characteristic of the bankruptcy cases processed by the IBC noted in the context?
What is the main characteristic of the bankruptcy cases processed by the IBC noted in the context?
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Which firm had the lowest recovery rate among the completed cases?
Which firm had the lowest recovery rate among the completed cases?
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What is the implication of having a large portion of stressed assets in independent power producers regarding their resolution?
What is the implication of having a large portion of stressed assets in independent power producers regarding their resolution?
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What has been the average recovery rate of the completed cases according to the information provided?
What has been the average recovery rate of the completed cases according to the information provided?
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Study Notes
Economic Slowdown and Theories
- Cyclicalists attribute India's economic slowdown to recent developments, particularly a slump in aggregate demand influenced by agriculture, demonetization, GST, and monetary tightness.
- Long-standing economic structures and labor laws are criticized for their inability to explain sudden declines or previous growth spurts in the economy.
- Income inequality hypothesis suggests that the consumption boom since 1991 has ended due to saturation among top earners, but evidence points to exports and investments as primary growth drivers.
Historical Context of Economic Growth
- Early 2000s saw India's economy rebound after a recession; concurrent global economic upswing led to increased confidence in India's growth potential.
- Export growth peaked, with significant increases in infrastructure investment, climbing to 38% of GDP within four years.
- The post-Global Financial Crisis (2008) period saw growth collapse: exports decreased from over 15% to 5%, and agricultural incomes fell by 1.3 percentage points between 2012-2018 compared to earlier periods.
Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) Crisis
- Public sector banks face an NPA ratio of 12%, the highest among major economies, indicating a significant banking crisis.
- Total NPAs amount to ₹9.2 lakh crores; actual values may be higher due to negotiations on stressed assets.
- Recovery through the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has been slow, with minimal resolution of complex cases contributing to the overall issue.
Need for Reliable Data
- Accurate data generation and dissemination are crucial for informed policy-making and maintaining economic confidence.
- Policymakers face uncertainties about the economy's condition, employment issues, government revenues, and financial system stability due to unreliable data.
- Recommended creation of a committee to address real sector measurement issues, potentially led by Professor Abhijit Banerjee.
Key Figures and Statistics
- Between 2002-2011 and 2012-2018, significant shifts occurred in economic performance indicators.
- Nonfood credit doubled within three years post-2008, yet subsequent economic struggles persist alongside a high NPA rate.
- The need for enhanced data systems in real, fiscal, and financial sectors is essential for effective governance.
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Description
This quiz explores the recent developments in India's economy, focusing on the cyclicalists' viewpoints regarding the slowdown due to factors such as agricultural issues and policy changes. Topics include the impact of demonetization, GST, and export performance on economic growth. Test your understanding of these complex economic dynamics.