Podcast
Questions and Answers
What was the largest IPO in the world that Michael Oyson was involved in?
What was the largest IPO in the world that Michael Oyson was involved in?
- Bank of China
- Agricultural Bank of China
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
- China Construction Bank (correct)
Which degree did Michael Oyson obtain from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management?
Which degree did Michael Oyson obtain from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management?
- MBA (correct)
- PhD in Finance
- Master of Financial Engineering
- Master of Arts in Economics
How many years of experience does Michael Oyson have in investment banking?
How many years of experience does Michael Oyson have in investment banking?
- 15 years
- 30 years
- 25 years
- 20 years (correct)
Which certificate does Michael Oyson hold from Duke University/Coursera?
Which certificate does Michael Oyson hold from Duke University/Coursera?
In which country did Michael Oyson serve as a director at Deutsche Bank?
In which country did Michael Oyson serve as a director at Deutsche Bank?
What is the primary focus of investment banking?
What is the primary focus of investment banking?
Which of the following describes portfolio management?
Which of the following describes portfolio management?
What is a key activity of commercial banking?
What is a key activity of commercial banking?
How do investment banks typically charge for their services?
How do investment banks typically charge for their services?
Which industry is referred to as the 'buy-side' of Wall Street?
Which industry is referred to as the 'buy-side' of Wall Street?
What is the primary role of a brokerage firm?
What is the primary role of a brokerage firm?
What type of financing does private equity primarily provide?
What type of financing does private equity primarily provide?
Which statement concerning commercial banks is true?
Which statement concerning commercial banks is true?
What significant financial concept did Paul Samuelson introduce regarding stock prices?
What significant financial concept did Paul Samuelson introduce regarding stock prices?
What does the Efficient Market Hypothesis primarily assert?
What does the Efficient Market Hypothesis primarily assert?
Which psychological effect was demonstrated by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in their prospect theory?
Which psychological effect was demonstrated by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in their prospect theory?
What was Irving Fisher credited for in the realm of economics?
What was Irving Fisher credited for in the realm of economics?
In Fisher's analysis, what contributes to the fluctuations in stock and bond prices?
In Fisher's analysis, what contributes to the fluctuations in stock and bond prices?
What incorrect prediction did Irving Fisher make regarding the stock market?
What incorrect prediction did Irving Fisher make regarding the stock market?
What innovative technique did Fisher introduce in his 1906 work on capital and income?
What innovative technique did Fisher introduce in his 1906 work on capital and income?
Which method did Samuelson promote that changed the North American approach to economics?
Which method did Samuelson promote that changed the North American approach to economics?
What does the present value of expected future cash flows reflect in an efficient market?
What does the present value of expected future cash flows reflect in an efficient market?
How does risk affect a stock's valuation?
How does risk affect a stock's valuation?
What foundation did Irving Fisher lay down in finance?
What foundation did Irving Fisher lay down in finance?
What does CAPM stand for and why is it important?
What does CAPM stand for and why is it important?
Which method prioritizes technical analysis for predicting stock market movements?
Which method prioritizes technical analysis for predicting stock market movements?
Louis Bachelier is known as the father of what field in finance?
Louis Bachelier is known as the father of what field in finance?
What is the primary focus of the Babson Chart in stock market prediction?
What is the primary focus of the Babson Chart in stock market prediction?
What concept is associated with the risk premium in stock valuation?
What concept is associated with the risk premium in stock valuation?
What does the expected utility approach involve in decision-making under uncertainty?
What does the expected utility approach involve in decision-making under uncertainty?
Which aspect of stock movements is primarily emphasized by the random walk theory?
Which aspect of stock movements is primarily emphasized by the random walk theory?
What concept did Paul Samuelson contribute to, which laid groundwork for modern financial theories?
What concept did Paul Samuelson contribute to, which laid groundwork for modern financial theories?
According to Samuelson, what is a unique characteristic of a bull market?
According to Samuelson, what is a unique characteristic of a bull market?
Why did Paul Samuelson move to MIT from Harvard?
Why did Paul Samuelson move to MIT from Harvard?
What does the phrase ‘equilibrium constantly being disturbed’ imply about competitive markets?
What does the phrase ‘equilibrium constantly being disturbed’ imply about competitive markets?
What is the main takeaway regarding systems to outperform the market?
What is the main takeaway regarding systems to outperform the market?
What did Samuelson mean by stating that ‘prices are all on paper’?
What did Samuelson mean by stating that ‘prices are all on paper’?
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Study Notes
Michael Oyson's Profile
- Michael Oyson is a CFA charterholder with extensive experience in investment banking and startups.
- Former CEO/MD of BPI Securities Corporation and Ex-Deutsche Bank Director of Equities Sales.
- Over 20 years of experience in investment banking, research, and sales across regions like the US, Hong Kong, Singapore, and the Philippines.
- Participated in multibillion-dollar IPOs, including China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China.
- Recognized as a top financial analyst by external surveys like Asiamoney.
- Holds an MBA from Northwestern University and a Master of Arts in Economics focused on International Trade.
Careers in Finance
- Investment Banking: Involves raising capital through underwriting, advisory on mergers and acquisitions, and asset management activities. Operates on the "sell-side" of finance.
- Portfolio Management: Aimed at increasing asset values for clients, represented on the "buy-side" of finance, focusing on buying and holding securities.
- Stock Trading/Brokerage: Acts as intermediaries facilitating transactions in stocks, bonds, and options.
- Commercial Banking: Historically centered on deposit-taking and lending operations, involving mortgages and business loans.
- Private Equity/Venture Capital: Provides equity financing to high-growth startups, focused on long-term investment returns.
Influential Economic Theories
- Paul Samuelson: Advanced the concept of random walks in stock prices; contributed to the development of financial economics.
- Eugene Fama: Formulated the Efficient Market Hypothesis, asserting that stock prices reflect all available information.
- Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky: Created prospect theory, which examines how people perceive gains and losses differently.
Contributions of Irving Fisher
- Revolutionized economic analysis with a mathematical approach, emphasizing the use of quantitative models.
- Introduced probability in capital analysis, acknowledging uncertainty in stock valuations.
- Fundamental contributor to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model; related risk premiums to variance in returns.
- Developed indexing concepts, notably the establishment of the S&P 500 index fund in 1976.
Predicting Stock Market Movements
- Influences on market predictions include money supply, business cycles, and fundamental economic data.
- Techniques include chart-based forecasting (Babson Chart) and technical analysis to identify market trends.
Louis Bachelier's Legacy
- Recognized as the Father of Financial Mathematics and Modern Option Theory for bridging mathematics and finance.
- Proposed that outcomes in finance are uncertain, advocating for probabilistic thinking in decision-making.
Random Walk Hypothesis
- Established by Paul Samuelson, theorizing that stock movement is largely unpredictable.
- Emphasized mathematical clarity in economic expressions; his works paved the way for further developments like the Black-Scholes model.
Market Dynamics
- Samuelson theorized that market equilibrium is in constant flux, likening it to an ocean's surface.
- He noted the self-fulfilling nature of bull markets, where increased buying leads to rising prices, creating a cycle of optimism.
- Highlighted the absence of a perfect strategy to outpace the market, yet indicated variations in approach effectiveness.
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