Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Questions and Answers

What are decision criteria in decision-making?

  • Weights assigned to each criterion
  • Factors that are important and relevant to resolving the problem (correct)
  • Factors that are irrelevant to resolving the problem
  • Alternatives to resolve the problem

Why are weights assigned to each decision criterion?

  • To place the criteria in the correct priority order of their importance (correct)
  • To make the decision-making process faster
  • To make the decision-making process more complicated
  • To eliminate some criteria from the decision-making process

What is the purpose of Step 2 in the decision-making process?

  • To analyze alternatives
  • To identify decision criteria (correct)
  • To allocate weights to the criteria
  • To develop alternatives

What is the purpose of Step 3 in the decision-making process?

<p>To allocate weights to the criteria (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of Step 4 in the decision-making process?

<p>To develop alternatives (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of Step 5 in the decision-making process?

<p>To analyze alternatives (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In Exhibit 6-2, what is the weight assigned to the 'Memory and Storage' criterion?

<p>10 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of allocating weights to the criteria?

<p>To prioritize the importance of each criterion (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the concept of Bounded Rationality, what do managers do when faced with making a decision?

<p>Choose the first alternative that satisfactorily solves the problem (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong?

<p>Escalation of commitment (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main difference between maximizing and satisficing?

<p>Maximizing involves considering all alternatives, satisficing involves choosing the first good enough option (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for making decisions based on experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment?

<p>Intuitive decision making (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Bounded Rationality, what do managers do when they cannot analyze all information on all alternatives?

<p>Satisfice rather than maximize (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main assumption of Bounded Rationality?

<p>Managers are limited by their ability to process information (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the result of the escalation of commitment?

<p>Increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for choosing the first alternative that satisfactorily solves the problem?

<p>Satisficing (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a characteristic of a structured problem?

<p>Goals are clear (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of decision can be handled by a routine approach?

<p>Programmed decision (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a series of interrelated steps to respond to a structured problem?

<p>Procedure (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is an explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do?

<p>Rule (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for a decision that involves unclear goals and incomplete information?

<p>Unstructured decision (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of decision-making approach involves maximizing?

<p>Maximizing (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of a procedure in decision-making?

<p>To respond to a structured problem (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the benefit of a rule in decision-making?

<p>It permits rapid and fair decisions (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the initial step in the decision-making process?

<p>Identifying a problem (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the correct order of evaluating alternatives in the decision-making process?

<p>Developed, analyzed, selected and well-implemented (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary characteristic of rational decision making?

<p>Makes consistent, value-maximizing choices (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary goal of a manager in the decision-making process?

<p>To achieve a specific goal (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for the idea that managers do not make perfectly rational decisions due to cognitive limitations and complexity?

<p>Bounded rationality (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary role of a manager in an organization?

<p>To make decisions in all four managerial functions (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the characteristic of a manager's decision-making process?

<p>Logical and objective (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary assumption of rational decision making?

<p>All of the above (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main characteristic of a situation where the decision maker is able to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes?

<p>Risk (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for a guideline for making decisions?

<p>Policy (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for a situation where limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities?

<p>Uncertainty (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main difference between risk and uncertainty?

<p>Risk involves probability estimation, while uncertainty involves no probability estimation (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for a situation where the decision maker is able to know the outcomes with absolute certainty?

<p>Certainty (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of decision-making models?

<p>To provide a structured approach to decision-making (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a common challenge faced by decision makers in situations of uncertainty?

<p>Reliance on intuition and hunches (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for biases that can affect decision-making?

<p>Decision-making biases (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Decision-Making Process

  • The decision-making process involves five steps:
    • Identifying decision criteria
    • Allocating weights to the criteria
    • Developing alternatives
    • Analyzing alternatives
    • Selecting an alternative

Decision Criteria

  • Decision criteria are factors that are important to resolving the problem
  • Examples of decision criteria include:
    • Costs that will be incurred
    • Risks likely to be encountered
    • Outcomes that are desired

Allocating Weights to Criteria

  • Decision criteria are not of equal importance
  • Assigning a weight to each criterion places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision-making process

Developing Alternatives

  • Identifying viable alternatives that can resolve the problem
  • Alternatives are listed without evaluation

Analyzing Alternatives

  • Appraising each alternative's strengths and weaknesses
  • An alternative's appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3

Decision-Making Styles

  • Rational decision making:
    • Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints
    • Assumptions are that decision makers are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical
  • Bounded rationality:
    • Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited by their ability to process information
    • Assumptions are that decision makers will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives and will satisfice rather than maximize the outcome of their decision
  • Intuitive decision making:
    • Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment
    • Can complement bounded rational decision making

Decision-Making Biases

  • Biases affect decision making, including:
    • Escalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong
    • Satisficing: choosing the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem rather than maximizing the outcome of the decision

Decision-Making Conditions

  • Structured problems:
    • Involve goals that are clear
    • Are familiar and easily and completely defined
  • Programmed decisions:
    • A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach
  • Uncertainty:
    • Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem

Decision-Making Guidelines

  • Policy:
    • A general guide for decision making and action
  • Rule:
    • An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do
  • Procedure:
    • A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond to a structured problem

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Description

This quiz covers decision-making under uncertainty, including limited information, estimation of outcome probabilities, and intuition-based decision making.

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