Decision-Making & Reasoning Topics
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Questions and Answers

What do researchers suggest about bias in decision-making?

  • It results from cautious processing.
  • It may stem from 'lazy' processing. (correct)
  • It is always due to lack of information.
  • It improves the accuracy of estimates.
  • Which statement about the Anchor and Adjust heuristic is true?

  • It results in estimates that cannot improve in accuracy. (correct)
  • Cognitive capacity has a significant effect on its effectiveness.
  • Incentives improve the accuracy of adjustments.
  • It can greatly enhance accuracy in estimations.
  • In the context of natural frequencies concerning breast cancer screening, what is the probability of a woman at age 40 having breast cancer if she tests positive?

  • 10%
  • 80%
  • 1%
  • Between 70-80% (correct)
  • What demographic is provided in the example involving natural frequencies for breast cancer risk?

    <p>Women aged 40 and above. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which heuristics are identified as examples of biased judgment?

    <p>Availability, Anchor-and-Adjust, and Representativeness. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What phenomenon describes the tendency to believe that two events occurring together is more likely than either event happening independently?

    <p>Conjunction fallacy (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Based on the recall study, how many names were remembered from the famous group compared to the less famous group?

    <p>12.3 vs. 8.4 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What percentage of participants judged that the gender with famous names was more frequent?

    <p>81% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of memory, why is it easier to remember famous names compared to less famous names?

    <p>Famous names are more available in memory due to frequent exposure. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the availability effect influence according to Tversky & Kahneman?

    <p>The frequency estimation of events (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which group was associated with a higher recall in the study: famous women or famous men?

    <p>No significant difference (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What average number of names would participants expect to recall from a group of names they find famous?

    <p>12.3 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term 'availability' refer to in the context of memory effects?

    <p>The ease with which information can be retrieved (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What tendency is illustrated by the judgment of how representative Tom is of a typical student?

    <p>Base rate neglect (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is likely to affect how groups rank Tom's specialization?

    <p>The popularity of each subject (A), Personal biases and stereotypes (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the ranking exercise, what factor is assessed alongside how representative Tom is?

    <p>Estimation of the percentage of all students studying the topic (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best describes the outcome of Tom's representation ranking?

    <p>It varied depending on the group’s biases. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which group of disciplines would likely be least affected by the popularity of a subject when ranking Tom’s likelihood?

    <p>Engineering (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What cognitive bias may lead individuals to misjudge the commonness of a field based on a specific example like Tom?

    <p>Availability heuristic (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can influence the mean estimated base rate in the judgment of Tom’s specialization?

    <p>The amount of media coverage on respective jobs (C), Social perception of the subject’s relevance (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary cognitive error that arises when people give undue weight to a specific example instead of base rates?

    <p>Base rate neglect (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the misconception related to the sequence HHHHHT in terms of randomness?

    <p>It indicates that tails are likely to occur soon. (B), It demonstrates inappropriate judgment based on past experiences. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to the information on past experiences, how do people generally misjudge probabilities?

    <p>By overestimating the likelihood of variations after long runs. (A), By believing that streaks have an influence on future probabilities. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What explanation is given for the misconception about randomness in past experiences?

    <p>People generalize outcomes based on rare occurrences. (C), Random events have no memory of previous outcomes. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What must be considered when judging the probability of picking a skittle after a run of three red skittles?

    <p>The total number of skittles available. (B), The color distribution of all skittles. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the information characterize the relationship between the length of a streak and the probability of future outcomes?

    <p>Longer streaks have no effect on future outcomes. (A), Longer streaks decrease the likelihood of the same outcome occurring. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What principle do Tversky and Kahneman discuss that involves neglecting statistical information in favor of similarity?

    <p>Representativeness (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the given example, what is the statistical probability of Jack being an engineer?

    <p>55% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What term describes the tendency to ignore base rate information in favor of representativeness?

    <p>Base rate neglect (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to Tversky and Kahneman, what does assess probability based on similarity involve?

    <p>An assessment of correspondence (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What best describes Jack's characteristics in the scenario provided?

    <p>Cautious and ambitious with hobbies (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does base rate neglect lead individuals to favor when making judgments?

    <p>Perceptions of similarity (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following statements about Tom W. is true based on the descriptions provided?

    <p>He prefers order and has a need for clarity. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What aspect of judgment do Tversky and Kahneman highlight in relation to decision-making?

    <p>Assessments based on limited information (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a primary limitation of human memory when observing a sequence of coin flips?

    <p>Humans can only recall the last 4 outcomes of a sequence. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What misconception often arises when people observe random sequences like coin flips?

    <p>People believe a certain pattern must occur more frequently. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is meant by non-occurrence probability in the context of random events?

    <p>The likelihood of never seeing a particular outcome in a given number of trials. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the number of trials relate to the expected outcomes of random events?

    <p>More trials increase the likelihood of seeing an expected outcome. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What do heuristics often lead to in the assessment of probabilities?

    <p>Overgeneralizations based on limited information. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In evaluating probability judgments, what theoretical approaches can contribute to errors?

    <p>Intuitive processes overriding analytical reasoning. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How do natural frequencies assist in applying Bayes theorem?

    <p>They provide a simpler way to express conditional probabilities. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What role does memory play in the perception of fairness in coin flips?

    <p>Memory can distort the interpretation of short sequences. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Flashcards

    Availability Heuristic

    The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easily recalled from memory, often because they are vivid, recent, or emotionally charged.

    Conjunction Fallacy

    In this cognitive bias, people tend to overestimate the probability of two events happening together (conjunction) compared to one of those events happening alone.

    Availability Heuristic

    When determining the probability of an event, people rely on the ease with which examples or instances come to mind. This often leads to overestimation of the likelihood of events that are more memorable or easily accessible.

    Conjunction Fallacy

    The conjunction fallacy is when we incorrectly assume that two specific events are more likely than one of those events happening alone, even if the more specific event is a subset of the less specific one.

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    Famous Names Study

    A study illustrating the availability heuristic, where participants were presented with a list of names, some famous and others not. They later overestimated the frequency of the gender represented by more famous names.

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    Availability Heuristic

    The tendency to judge the probability of an event based on how readily examples come to mind, without considering other relevant information or statistical probabilities.

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    Word Ending Study

    An example of the conjunction fallacy, where participants were asked to estimate the number of words ending in "ing" versus words ending in "n" within a novel. They overestimated words ending in "ing", even though "n" is a more frequent ending.

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    Conjunction Fallacy

    The conjunction fallacy is a common cognitive bias where we mistakenly believe that two events happening together are more likely than either one happening alone. It reflects our tendency to overestimate the probability of specific events.

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    Representativeness Heuristic

    A heuristic where people judge the probability of an event based on how representative it is of a particular category.

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    Base Rate Neglect

    A cognitive bias where people ignore base rate information and rely on representativeness to make judgments.

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    Assessment of Correspondence

    The tendency to focus on the similarity between a sample and a population, an instance and a category, or an act and an actor.

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    Probability of an event

    The probability of something being true, given that it fits a certain description.

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    Base Rate

    A measure of how often something occurs in a population.

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    Statistical Information

    Information about the frequency of an event or characteristic in a population.

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    Representativeness

    The perceived similarity between a sample and its potential population.

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    Heuristic

    A cognitive strategy that relies on readily available examples rather than systematic analysis.

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    Gambler's Fallacy

    The belief that a long streak of random events makes a specific outcome less likely in the future.

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    Misperception of Randomness

    The misconception that random sequences tend to alternate more frequently than they actually do, leading to the belief that a run of one outcome is more likely to be followed by the opposite outcome.

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    Misperception of Randomness: Past Experience

    The tendency for people to make judgments based on their past experiences, even if those experiences are not statistically relevant.

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    Law of Averages Fallacy

    The idea that, due to the law of averages, a long streak of one outcome makes the opposite outcome more likely in future trials.

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    Availability Bias

    A cognitive bias where people tend to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easily recalled from memory, often due to their vividness, recency, or emotional charge.

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    Tom W's Case

    When making judgments about a person's profession, people tend to overemphasize how representative they are of their profession and underestimate the base rate of how common that profession is.

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    Anchor and Adjust

    A cognitive strategy that involves starting with an initial estimate (anchor) and then adjusting it based on additional information.

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    Anchoring Bias

    A type of cognitive bias where individuals are influenced by the initial value (anchor) they are given, even when that value is arbitrary or irrelevant.

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    Ecological Rationality

    This approach suggests that people often make decisions that are good enough for the situation, rather than striving for objectively optimal solutions.

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    Natural Frequencies

    The tendency to use the information available to us, even if it's not statistically accurate, when making judgments about probabilities.

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    Study Notes

    Reasoning & Decision-Making Topics

    • Topics covered include Judging probabilities and frequencies, Reasoning, Decision-making, Emotion and decision-making, and Group decision-making
    • Specific dates for each topic are given: Nov 4th, Nov 11th, Nov 18th, Nov 25th, and Dec 2nd.

    Interactive Session Instructions

    • Interactive sessions are planned
    • Do not confer with others
    • There are no right answers
    • Use your gut feeling
    • Avoid trick questions
    • Sessions are anonymous.
    • Interactive sessions information is available at this URL: https://tinyurl.com/2nz2etbk

    Judging Probabilities and Frequencies

    • People often make judgments that deviate from the dictates of probability theory

    Lecture Structure

    • People tend to be bad at dealing with probabilities
    • Probability judgments often stray from probability theory dictates
    • Heuristics are simplifying strategies that reduce effort but are prone to bias/error
    • Ecological rationality implies apparent biases can be rational responses given the decision-making process

    Learning Outcomes

    • Define the heuristics and the biases they create.
    • Understand various theoretical approaches to errors in probability judgment.
    • Explain natural frequencies and how they help apply Bayes' theorem.

    Heuristics and Biases

    • Availability: How easily something is imagined influences its perceived probability.
    • Representativeness: Judging probability based on assessments of similarity.
    • Anchoring: Starting with an initial estimate (anchor) that affects subsequent judgments

    Availability

    • Vivid examples affect probability judgments (e.g., more people fear dying in a plane crash than a car accident)
    • Estimating death causes: poisoning by vitamins (0.5/100M), fireworks (3/100M), car-train collisions (740/100M), drownings (3600/100M), all accidents (55,000/100M), heart disease (360,000/100M).
    • Finding something easy to recall indicates higher probability.

    Representativeness

    • Judging probability based on assessments of similarity
    • Examples of base rate neglect: People make assumptions based on how representative something is, rather than statistical information. Examples include the description of "Tom" (a person) and the likelihood that he is studying a specific topic (e.g., engineering). The base rate of students studying each topic is often ignored given the description.

    Anchoring

    • Initial information (anchor) influences subsequent judgments.
    • Example: Estimating the percentage of African nations in the UN, influenced by pre-given numbers (e.g., more or less than 65%, more or less than 10%.)

    Part 1 Summary

    • Some researchers consider bias as an error resulting from "lazy" processing.
    • Examples (heuristics) include Availability, Representativeness, and Anchor-and-Adjust.

    Ecological Rationality

    • Natural Frequencies: Emphasizes understanding natural frequencies over computational methods.
    • Misperception of Randomness: Random events are not always truly random.

    Natural Frequencies: Bayes

    • Bayes' Theorem formula is given: p(H|D) = (p(D|H) × p(H)) / [(p(D|H) × p(H)) + (p(D|¬H) × p(¬H))]
    • Example probabilities provided related to breast cancer screening tests and diagnosis.

    Learning Outcomes (Recap)

    • Define heuristics and their related biases
    • Identify different theoretical approaches to errors in judgment
    • Explain natural frequencies and their application to Bayes' theorem

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    Description

    Explore essential concepts in decision-making and reasoning, including how emotions and group dynamics influence judgments. This quiz covers various topics such as judging probabilities, heuristics, and ecological rationality. Engage in interactive sessions that encourage gut feeling and critical thinking.

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