Podcast
Questions and Answers
What do researchers suggest about bias in decision-making?
What do researchers suggest about bias in decision-making?
Which statement about the Anchor and Adjust heuristic is true?
Which statement about the Anchor and Adjust heuristic is true?
In the context of natural frequencies concerning breast cancer screening, what is the probability of a woman at age 40 having breast cancer if she tests positive?
In the context of natural frequencies concerning breast cancer screening, what is the probability of a woman at age 40 having breast cancer if she tests positive?
What demographic is provided in the example involving natural frequencies for breast cancer risk?
What demographic is provided in the example involving natural frequencies for breast cancer risk?
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Which heuristics are identified as examples of biased judgment?
Which heuristics are identified as examples of biased judgment?
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What phenomenon describes the tendency to believe that two events occurring together is more likely than either event happening independently?
What phenomenon describes the tendency to believe that two events occurring together is more likely than either event happening independently?
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Based on the recall study, how many names were remembered from the famous group compared to the less famous group?
Based on the recall study, how many names were remembered from the famous group compared to the less famous group?
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What percentage of participants judged that the gender with famous names was more frequent?
What percentage of participants judged that the gender with famous names was more frequent?
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In the context of memory, why is it easier to remember famous names compared to less famous names?
In the context of memory, why is it easier to remember famous names compared to less famous names?
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What does the availability effect influence according to Tversky & Kahneman?
What does the availability effect influence according to Tversky & Kahneman?
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Which group was associated with a higher recall in the study: famous women or famous men?
Which group was associated with a higher recall in the study: famous women or famous men?
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What average number of names would participants expect to recall from a group of names they find famous?
What average number of names would participants expect to recall from a group of names they find famous?
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What does the term 'availability' refer to in the context of memory effects?
What does the term 'availability' refer to in the context of memory effects?
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What tendency is illustrated by the judgment of how representative Tom is of a typical student?
What tendency is illustrated by the judgment of how representative Tom is of a typical student?
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What is likely to affect how groups rank Tom's specialization?
What is likely to affect how groups rank Tom's specialization?
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In the ranking exercise, what factor is assessed alongside how representative Tom is?
In the ranking exercise, what factor is assessed alongside how representative Tom is?
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Which of the following best describes the outcome of Tom's representation ranking?
Which of the following best describes the outcome of Tom's representation ranking?
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Which group of disciplines would likely be least affected by the popularity of a subject when ranking Tom’s likelihood?
Which group of disciplines would likely be least affected by the popularity of a subject when ranking Tom’s likelihood?
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What cognitive bias may lead individuals to misjudge the commonness of a field based on a specific example like Tom?
What cognitive bias may lead individuals to misjudge the commonness of a field based on a specific example like Tom?
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What can influence the mean estimated base rate in the judgment of Tom’s specialization?
What can influence the mean estimated base rate in the judgment of Tom’s specialization?
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What is the primary cognitive error that arises when people give undue weight to a specific example instead of base rates?
What is the primary cognitive error that arises when people give undue weight to a specific example instead of base rates?
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What is the misconception related to the sequence HHHHHT in terms of randomness?
What is the misconception related to the sequence HHHHHT in terms of randomness?
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According to the information on past experiences, how do people generally misjudge probabilities?
According to the information on past experiences, how do people generally misjudge probabilities?
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What explanation is given for the misconception about randomness in past experiences?
What explanation is given for the misconception about randomness in past experiences?
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What must be considered when judging the probability of picking a skittle after a run of three red skittles?
What must be considered when judging the probability of picking a skittle after a run of three red skittles?
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How does the information characterize the relationship between the length of a streak and the probability of future outcomes?
How does the information characterize the relationship between the length of a streak and the probability of future outcomes?
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What principle do Tversky and Kahneman discuss that involves neglecting statistical information in favor of similarity?
What principle do Tversky and Kahneman discuss that involves neglecting statistical information in favor of similarity?
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In the given example, what is the statistical probability of Jack being an engineer?
In the given example, what is the statistical probability of Jack being an engineer?
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What term describes the tendency to ignore base rate information in favor of representativeness?
What term describes the tendency to ignore base rate information in favor of representativeness?
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According to Tversky and Kahneman, what does assess probability based on similarity involve?
According to Tversky and Kahneman, what does assess probability based on similarity involve?
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What best describes Jack's characteristics in the scenario provided?
What best describes Jack's characteristics in the scenario provided?
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What does base rate neglect lead individuals to favor when making judgments?
What does base rate neglect lead individuals to favor when making judgments?
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Which of the following statements about Tom W. is true based on the descriptions provided?
Which of the following statements about Tom W. is true based on the descriptions provided?
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What aspect of judgment do Tversky and Kahneman highlight in relation to decision-making?
What aspect of judgment do Tversky and Kahneman highlight in relation to decision-making?
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What is a primary limitation of human memory when observing a sequence of coin flips?
What is a primary limitation of human memory when observing a sequence of coin flips?
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What misconception often arises when people observe random sequences like coin flips?
What misconception often arises when people observe random sequences like coin flips?
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What is meant by non-occurrence probability in the context of random events?
What is meant by non-occurrence probability in the context of random events?
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How does the number of trials relate to the expected outcomes of random events?
How does the number of trials relate to the expected outcomes of random events?
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What do heuristics often lead to in the assessment of probabilities?
What do heuristics often lead to in the assessment of probabilities?
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In evaluating probability judgments, what theoretical approaches can contribute to errors?
In evaluating probability judgments, what theoretical approaches can contribute to errors?
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How do natural frequencies assist in applying Bayes theorem?
How do natural frequencies assist in applying Bayes theorem?
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What role does memory play in the perception of fairness in coin flips?
What role does memory play in the perception of fairness in coin flips?
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Study Notes
Reasoning & Decision-Making Topics
- Topics covered include Judging probabilities and frequencies, Reasoning, Decision-making, Emotion and decision-making, and Group decision-making
- Specific dates for each topic are given: Nov 4th, Nov 11th, Nov 18th, Nov 25th, and Dec 2nd.
Interactive Session Instructions
- Interactive sessions are planned
- Do not confer with others
- There are no right answers
- Use your gut feeling
- Avoid trick questions
- Sessions are anonymous.
- Interactive sessions information is available at this URL: https://tinyurl.com/2nz2etbk
Judging Probabilities and Frequencies
- People often make judgments that deviate from the dictates of probability theory
Lecture Structure
- People tend to be bad at dealing with probabilities
- Probability judgments often stray from probability theory dictates
- Heuristics are simplifying strategies that reduce effort but are prone to bias/error
- Ecological rationality implies apparent biases can be rational responses given the decision-making process
Learning Outcomes
- Define the heuristics and the biases they create.
- Understand various theoretical approaches to errors in probability judgment.
- Explain natural frequencies and how they help apply Bayes' theorem.
Heuristics and Biases
- Availability: How easily something is imagined influences its perceived probability.
- Representativeness: Judging probability based on assessments of similarity.
- Anchoring: Starting with an initial estimate (anchor) that affects subsequent judgments
Availability
- Vivid examples affect probability judgments (e.g., more people fear dying in a plane crash than a car accident)
- Estimating death causes: poisoning by vitamins (0.5/100M), fireworks (3/100M), car-train collisions (740/100M), drownings (3600/100M), all accidents (55,000/100M), heart disease (360,000/100M).
- Finding something easy to recall indicates higher probability.
Representativeness
- Judging probability based on assessments of similarity
- Examples of base rate neglect: People make assumptions based on how representative something is, rather than statistical information. Examples include the description of "Tom" (a person) and the likelihood that he is studying a specific topic (e.g., engineering). The base rate of students studying each topic is often ignored given the description.
Anchoring
- Initial information (anchor) influences subsequent judgments.
- Example: Estimating the percentage of African nations in the UN, influenced by pre-given numbers (e.g., more or less than 65%, more or less than 10%.)
Part 1 Summary
- Some researchers consider bias as an error resulting from "lazy" processing.
- Examples (heuristics) include Availability, Representativeness, and Anchor-and-Adjust.
Ecological Rationality
- Natural Frequencies: Emphasizes understanding natural frequencies over computational methods.
- Misperception of Randomness: Random events are not always truly random.
Natural Frequencies: Bayes
- Bayes' Theorem formula is given: p(H|D) = (p(D|H) × p(H)) / [(p(D|H) × p(H)) + (p(D|¬H) × p(¬H))]
- Example probabilities provided related to breast cancer screening tests and diagnosis.
Learning Outcomes (Recap)
- Define heuristics and their related biases
- Identify different theoretical approaches to errors in judgment
- Explain natural frequencies and their application to Bayes' theorem
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Description
Explore essential concepts in decision-making and reasoning, including how emotions and group dynamics influence judgments. This quiz covers various topics such as judging probabilities, heuristics, and ecological rationality. Engage in interactive sessions that encourage gut feeling and critical thinking.
