Decision Making and Behavioral Economics
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Questions and Answers

Which program resulted in a higher preference in the first framing scenario?

  • Program A (correct)
  • Both programs equally
  • Program B
  • Neither program

In the second framing scenario, what was the probability of nobody dying under Program B?

  • ½
  • ¼
  • â…“ (correct)
  • â…”

What percentage of individuals preferred Program D over Program C in the second framing scenario?

  • 33%
  • 67% (correct)
  • 76%
  • 50%

What was the key difference in how the two groups analyzed their investments?

<p>Group 1 saw monthly fluctuations while Group 2 saw annual aggregates. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the findings, what behavior was exhibited in framing 1 compared to framing 2?

<p>Risk avoidance in framing 1 and risk-taking in framing 2. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the most common choice pattern regarding acceptance of a second gamble?

<p>Accept when you have won the first gamble (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the sure-thing principle, what dictates taking action X?

<p>Taking the same action regardless of event A's outcome (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the scenario of purchasing a vacation package, what was the likely choice of students who passed the exam?

<p>54% chose to buy the package (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the reaction of individuals after experiencing a loss in the first gamble?

<p>They often feel they cannot lose and take the risk (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What choice did individuals frequently make when faced with an uncertain outcome on the exam?

<p>They were split between buying the package and waiting (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the complexity of an alternative action influence the attractiveness of the default option?

<p>It increases the attractiveness as it reduces cognitive effort. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a common reason why people choose the default option?

<p>Default options are often perceived as recommendations. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following considerations should policy-holders balance when choosing defaults?

<p>Effects of defaults on physical, cognitive, and emotional costs. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of decision-making, how do defaults function when individuals lack a clear preference?

<p>Defaults guide decision-makers towards a chosen option. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a primary concern when defaults may lead to misclassification?

<p>Balance between ethical implications and psychological impacts. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one of the psychological implications of selecting a default option?

<p>It may lead to overconfidence in decision-making. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does accepting a default option generally have on decision-making effort?

<p>It significantly reduces the decision-making effort required. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the concept of the default relate to the status quo?

<p>Defaults are often a representation of the current state or status quo. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the pot in the St-Petersburg game each time a head appears?

<p>It is doubled. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why do few people are willing to pay a large amount to play the St-Petersburg game despite its infinite expected value?

<p>Players value utilities differently than monetary outcomes. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which characteristic best describes risk-averse individuals?

<p>The utility gained from extra wealth diminishes. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In which scenario are individuals more likely to become risk seekers?

<p>When evaluating options involving certain losses. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does prospect theory emphasize in decision making?

<p>Evaluation of outcomes relative to a reference point. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the concavity of a utility function relate to risk preferences?

<p>It signifies risk aversion. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What do losses loom larger than gains mean in the context of decision making?

<p>The emotional response to losses is stronger than to gains. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does risk loving behavior imply about an individual's utility?

<p>They experience increasing marginal utility of wealth. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary factor that leads to different WTA and WTP values in the context of the given scenarios?

<p>The endowment effect influencing sellers (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does loss aversion in prospect theory indicate about our perception of ownership?

<p>Owners fear loss more than they value gains (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which describes the disjunction effect?

<p>Deciding differently based on whether a related event is known or unknown (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the classroom experiment, what behavior did choosers exhibit compared to buyers and sellers?

<p>They behaved similarly to buyers in terms of pricing. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is WTA typically higher than WTP according to the findings from the experiments?

<p>Sellers perceive a greater loss when parting with an item. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of reference dependence in economic decisions?

<p>It establishes ownership as a reference point for valuing items. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the observed behavior when a gamble with a potential outcome was presented?

<p>Participants avoided the gamble due to uncertainty in outcome. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the general conclusion drawn from the behavior of the groups in the classroom experiment regarding ownership?

<p>Owners are influenced by emotional biases in valuation. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What decision did the majority of physicians make regarding the patient's medications before hip replacement surgery?

<p>Let the patient have the surgery first. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the organ donation experiment, which default option yielded the highest consent rates?

<p>Opt-out (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the decoy effect in decision-making?

<p>Adding an irrelevant third option that influences choices. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the economist experiment comparing 2 versus 3 subscription options, what happened with the internet-only subscription when a third option was added?

<p>It decreased in popularity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the outcome when both trips to Rome and Paris were presented with and without an added breakfast option?

<p>The addition of breakfast made Rome more popular. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does expected value calculation assume about decision-making?

<p>People always choose the option with the highest expected value. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key difference between expected value and expected utility?

<p>Expected utility incorporates risk preferences, expected value does not. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the outcome when tossing a fair coin repeatedly until tails appears in the St-Petersburg experiment?

<p>The game continues until it reaches a monetary value. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why did majority of physicians decide to pull the patient back and try medications in the first scenario?

<p>Due to uncertainties about medications' effectiveness. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was found regarding the 'default' options in the organ donation study?

<p>Defaults drastically influence people's decision-making processes. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Default Effect

The tendency to choose the default option when facing a complex decision, even if other options might be better.

Default Option

The preselected or pre-chosen option in a decision making process.

Decision Complexity

The difficulty of a decision, often determined by the number of steps or choices involved.

Effortless Choice

Choosing the default option requires less mental effort than considering other choices.

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Status Quo Bias

The preference for maintaining the current state of affairs.

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Policy Maker Influence

The influence a policy maker can have on a decision due to their recommendation.

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Trade-off

The act of giving up one thing in exchange for another.

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Decision-maker Preference

A choice that a decision-maker has on their own, that is not pushed by any external factor.

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Risk Neutrality

A risk preference where each additional dollar of wealth increases utility by the same amount as the previous dollar.

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Expected Utility (EU)

A theory of decision-making under uncertainty that considers both the probability of outcomes and their subjective value (utility).

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St. Petersburg Paradox

A game with infinite expected value, but people are unwilling to pay a high price to play it, showing that expected value (EV) doesn't fully describe decision-making.

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Prospect Theory

A theory that amends expected utility by showing that people are influenced by psychological biases and framing effects, not solely by rational utility maximization.

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Risk Loving

A risk preference where the additional pleasure from gaining a dollar increases with each dollar gained. Utility increases at an increasing rate.

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Risk Aversion

A risk preference where the additional pleasure from gaining an additional dollar is less than the previous dollar. Utility decreases at a decreasing rate.

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Value Function

A component in prospect theory, where people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point.

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Probability Weighting

A component in prospect theory describing how people assign probabilities to events, which differs from objective probabilities.

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Opt-in vs. Opt-out

Opt-in: You must actively choose to participate (e.g. organ donation). Opt-out: You are automatically enrolled unless you actively refuse (e.g. organ donation).

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Decoy Effect

Introducing a third, inferior option can make the other options seem more appealing, in comparison.

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Expected Value

A calculation of the average value of potential outcomes, based on their probability.

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Expected Utility

A calculation of the expected value of outcomes, considering personal preferences and risk tolerance.

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Hip Replacement Decision

Majority of physicians decide to try the medication if missing two before hip replacement surgery.

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Organ Donor Default

Opt-out results in higher organ donation rates than opt-in.

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Two-option vs. Three-option comparison

Adding an unappealing choice (decoy) to a decision influences consumer preferences, and changes the relative perception of the remaining options.

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Subscription Choice Experiment

Adding an inferior option shifts preferences towards options that are similar but better.

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Rome or Paris Experiment

Introducing a slightly altered option can affect the perception of the other similar options, leading to a preference shift.

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Framing Effect

The way a decision is presented can significantly influence the choice made, even if the underlying options are objectively the same.

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Risk Seeking

A preference for uncertain outcomes with potentially higher gains, even if the expected value is lower than a certain outcome.

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Portfolio Allocation

The process of dividing investment capital between different assets to balance risk and potential return.

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Frequency of Observations

The timing and frequency at which information is presented can affect decision making, even if the underlying data is the same.

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Sure-thing Principle

If a person is willing to take action X regardless of whether event A happens or not, they should take the same action X even when they don't know if A will happen.

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Decision under Uncertainty

The process of making a choice when the outcome is unknown or uncertain.

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Endowment Effect

The tendency for people to value something they own more highly than something they don't own, even if the objective value is the same.

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WTA vs. WTP

WTA (Willingness To Accept) is the minimum amount someone is willing to sell something for, while WTP (Willingness To Pay) is the maximum amount someone is willing to buy it for.

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Reference Dependence

Our decisions are influenced by a reference point, often the current state or a recent experience.

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Disjunction Effect

We are less likely to make a choice when the outcome of an uncertain event is unknown, even if we would make the same choice regardless of the outcome.

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Study Notes

The Default Effect

  • The default (status quo) option influences complex decisions
  • Complexity of the alternative makes the default more attractive
  • People choose the default when unsure
  • Defaults are considered suggestions from policy-makers
  • Defaults represent the existing state
  • Changing defaults often involves a trade-off
  • Defaults need to balance between ethical and psychological factors

Organ Donor Experiment

  • Physicians were asked about medication and surgery decisions for patients
  • Majority of physicians in the first scenario chose to treat the patient with the medication
  • Second scenario, majority of physicians opted for the surgical procedure

Decoy Effect

  • Decoy Effect: options will influence decision-making, especially when an inferior option changes choices between two similar options.
  • Presenting options in pairs vs triplets causes significant choice change
  • Trip to Rome vs Paris expenses paid: one option with a slightly better deal becomes more popular

Expected Value and Utility

  • Expected value = outcome multiplied by probability
  • Calculated without sentimental attachment
  • Assumes equally valued gains & losses
  • Assumes people pick option with highest expected value
  • Expected Utility: subjective value related to outcome

St-Petersburg Paradox

  • Expected value of a coin toss game is infinite.
  • Few people would pay more than a small amount to play.
  • People prefer certainty over a gamble in terms of utility.

Prospect Theory

  • Prospect theory amends Expected Utility Theory
  • Decisions are based on gains and losses relative to a reference point
  • Value function is steeper for losses than gains
  • Diminishing marginal sensitivity to gains and losses
  • Losses weigh more heavily than gains
  • Risk averse for gains
  • Risk seeking for losses

Disjunction Effect

  • Disjunction effect occurs when someone agrees to do X if A occurs, if A doesn't occur, but isn't willing to carry out X when the outcome of A is unknown.
  • People can't make a rational decision when options aren't clear.

Neurofinance

  • Interdisciplinary field that explores how the brain influences financial decisions
  • Prefrontal and parietal cortex are involved (rational decision-making part of the brain )
  • Somatic markers: anticipatory emotions that help assess risk and reward

Social Preferences

  • Unfair offers in ultimatum games activate emotional responses in the brain
  • Ethical implications influence decisions about fairness and altruism

Moral Reasoning

  • Moral dilemmas often trigger strong emotional responses, overriding purely logical reasoning
  • Important to consider the emotional responses in ethical decision-making

Intertemporal Choice

  • Decisions involve trade-offs between costs and benefits at different time points.
  • Current reward often outweighs future gains
  • People discount future payoffs.
  • Impulsive behavior related to the reward system.

Risk Taking

  • Baseline dopamine and phasic dopamine response affect risk perception
  • Higher serotonin levels lead to lower risk tolerance.
  • Testosterone linked to higher risk-taking behavior.

Ambiguity Aversion

  • Ambiguity aversion is when people prefer known odds over unknown odds.
  • Ambiguity can lead people to avoid risks when knowing the probabilities and details concerning the risk.

Information Processing

  • Limited cognitive abilities lead individuals to rely on heuristics (mental shortcuts) for decision-making.
  • This affects accuracy, as people might not consider full details of factors or all variables.

Belief Perseverance

  • Tendency to stick to initial beliefs, even facing conflicting evidence
  • Confirmation bias causes people to prioritize information that supports current beliefs.

Overconfidence

  • Overconfidence is when people overestimate their abilities and accuracy.
  • Causes over-extension and poor investment decisions.

Herding Behaviour

  • Herding occurs when an individual makes a decision based on observing the behavior of other people. They believe the group is more informed
  • Overconfidence is related as investors try to estimate market confidence.

Disposition Effect

  • Selling winning investments too early and holding losing investments for too long.
  • Emotional decisions on gains vs losses.

Household Finance

  • Many households save inadequately for retirement due to poor financial literacy or lack of self
  • control.
  • 2006 US Law to include auto-enrollment

Nudges

  • Subtle interventions that influence choices in ways that achieve positive outcomes.
  • Automatically enroll to retirement plans
  • Using positive reinforcement in combination with negative reinforcement
  • This influences positive behavior by reducing negative emotions.

Corporate Finance

  • Corporate malfeasance/misconduct reduces trust and leads to financial losses.
  • Ethical procedures in place and strong leadership are very important in reducing misconduct.

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Description

This quiz explores key concepts in behavioral economics, focusing on the default effect, organ donor decision-making, and the decoy effect. Understand how defaults influence choices and the implications of decision-making scenarios in medical contexts. Test your knowledge on these fascinating psychological phenomena.

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