Shermer: Proxy and Tribal Conspiracism (Ch. 3 "Conspiracy")
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Questions and Answers

According to the provided text, what does the 'myside bias' refer to?

  • A tendency to underestimate the expertise of individuals who hold opposing views.
  • A tendency to favor solutions or ideas associated with one's social group or identity.
  • A cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate their own reasoning abilities.
  • A cognitive bias where people are likely to believe information that confirms preexisting beliefs or opinions. (correct)

Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a domain where 'myside bias' is observed?

  • Sociology (correct)
  • Political science
  • Psychology
  • Behavioral economics

What is the underlying motive behind 'tribal conspiracism' ?

  • The 'myside bias' as described by Keith Stanovich. (correct)
  • A desire to maintain social status and belonging.
  • A deep-seated distrust of authority.
  • An attempt to explain complex and confusing events.

The provided text suggests that 'myside bias' can affect which of the following groups? (Select all that apply)

<p>Individuals with high levels of education. (A), Experts in their respective fields. (B), Individuals who are highly intelligent. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the author's main argument regarding the 'myside bias' as it relates to 'tribal conspiracism'?

<p>It is a powerful force that can lead to societal divisions. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is hindsight bias as demonstrated in the case of the Challenger disaster?

<p>The tendency to see events as more predictable after they have happened. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement accurately reflects the reaction to the Columbia disaster?

<p>Investigators showed significant hindsight bias in their analysis of the event. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is LIHOP, as mentioned in relation to conspiracy theories?

<p>The theory that leaders intentionally allow events to occur. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of conspiracy theories, what is the significance of the intercepted bomb plot message before Pearl Harbor?

<p>It confirmed that intelligence was aware but chose not to act. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What misconception is illustrated by the phrase 'made it happen on purpose' (MIHOP)?

<p>Leadership can control all outcomes through preemptive actions. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How did hindsight bias affect the evaluations made by NASA's investigative commissions after the shuttle disasters?

<p>They assumed actions could have been taken differently with prior knowledge. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What impact does hindsight bias have on the perception of improbable events after they occur?

<p>It renders them likely scenarios always foreseen by experts. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role did the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor play in the formation of conspiracy theories?

<p>It led to various theories questioning the knowledge of US leaders. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main point the author is trying to convey using the example of Pearl Harbor?

<p>The problem of hindsight bias makes it difficult to evaluate intelligence reports and make decisions based on them. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the author's argument regarding the messages intercepted before Pearl Harbor?

<p>Although the intercepted messages hinted at an attack, they were unclear and ambiguous, making it difficult to discern the exact nature or target. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the author mean by "noise" in the context of intercepted messages?

<p>Unintentional interference that obscures or distorts the true information contained within intercepted messages. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the author referring to when mentioning the memo dated August 6, 2001, entitled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US"?

<p>An example of how hindsight bias can make it seem like a specific event was predicted, even though it was not. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the author mean by "LIHOP" and "MIHOP" in the context of 9/11?

<p>LIHOP stands for &quot;Let It Happen On Purpose&quot; and MIHOP stands for &quot;Make It Happen On Purpose&quot; - conspiracy theories about the role of the Bush administration in the 9/11 attacks. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main point of the passage about the US intelligence regarding Pearl Harbor and the 9/11 attacks?

<p>Hindsight bias can create the illusion of clear warning signs that were missed, making it difficult to learn from mistakes. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements is TRUE about the intelligence reports before Pearl Harbor?

<p>The signals were ambiguous, making it hard to assess accurately the Japanese intentions. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the MOST LIKELY reason the author included the examples of both Pearl Harbor and 9/11 in the passage?

<p>To illustrate how hindsight bias can affect our perception of events. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary point made by Arthur Goldwag about momentous events?

<p>Important events can make trivial details seem significant. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is hindsight bias, as described in the text?

<p>The tendency to interpret past events in light of present knowledge. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these is used as an example of how insignificant details can be perceived as significant after a momentous event?

<p>The assassination of President John F. Kennedy. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of the reference to "Monday-morning quarterbacking"?

<p>To illustrate the tendency to analyze events in hindsight. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Based on the text, which of these is a common factor in conspiracy thinking?

<p>A desire for simple explanations. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these is NOT mentioned as a potential example of a detail that might be seen as suspicious in the context of a momentous event?

<p>The presence of a hidden camera. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the author's main point regarding cognitive biases in conspiracy thinking?

<p>Cognitive biases can contribute to the formation of conspiracy theories. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT mentioned as one of the groups or concepts associated with conspiracy theories?

<p>The Black Hand. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What event is associated with Frank Olson's suicide?

<p>He was dosed with LSD by his supervisor. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Rob Brotherton, what is a characteristic of the prototypical conspiracy theory?

<p>It poses an unanswered question. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the impact of the JFK film on viewers' civic engagement?

<p>It decreased their likelihood to engage in civic activities. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of conspiracy theories makes them appealing, according to Brotherton?

<p>Their portrayal of conspirators as highly competent. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one outcome observed in individuals who believed climate change conspiracy theories?

<p>They were less inclined to reduce their carbon footprint. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do social scientists typically approach explaining social events?

<p>Using sophisticated statistical techniques. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What behavior did Keech’s followers exhibit in their commitment to the UFO conspiracy?

<p>They made significant lifestyle changes to align with their beliefs. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the group's reaction when midnight passed without any sign of the prophecy being fulfilled?

<p>They attempted to rationalize the event as a positive outcome. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How did Keech respond initially after experiencing despair at 4:00 AM?

<p>She claimed to have received a new message from the Guardians. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What did Festinger conclude about the way Keech's followers handled their cognitive dissonance?

<p>They reduced their dissonance by changing their perception of the outcome. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What specific action did the followers take concerning metallic items before the predicted event?

<p>They avoided all metallic objects fearing interference with the spaceship. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Significance Bias

The tendency to see significance in mundane occurrences, especially when searching for a conspiracy behind a momentous event.

Hindsight Bias

The tendency to believe that an event was inevitable and predictable after it has already happened, even if there was no real evidence to support this belief beforehand.

Pattern Seeking

The tendency to look for patterns and connections in random events, often leading to the belief in conspiracies.

Reconstruction of the Past

The process of reconstructing past events in a way that fits our current knowledge and beliefs, which can perpetuate conspiracy theories.

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Cognitive Dissonance

A state of psychological discomfort caused by holding two conflicting beliefs or ideas.

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Confirmation Bias

The tendency for individuals to seek out and interpret information in a way that confirms their existing beliefs.

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Rationalization

A strategy employed by individuals to reduce cognitive dissonance by reinterpreting or justifying their actions or beliefs to align with their desired outcome. This process aims to minimize internal conflict.

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Conformity

The process of changing one's beliefs or behaviors to reduce cognitive dissonance by aligning them with the actions or beliefs of a group or authority figure.

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Commitment Escalation

The tendency for individuals to increase their commitment to a belief or course of action, even in the face of contradictory evidence, often to justify their initial investment.

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Conversion

The process of converting others to one's belief system as a means of reducing cognitive dissonance and reinforcing one's own beliefs.

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Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

A prediction, often made on the basis of a strong belief or conviction, which is then altered or justified to fit the actual outcome.

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Belief Perseverance

The ability to maintain a belief or conviction in the face of contradictory evidence, often due to the emotional significance or personal attachment to that belief.

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Myside Bias

A tendency to favor information that confirms pre-existing beliefs, while dismissing or downplaying contradictory evidence. This bias often leads to polarization and resistance to change.

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Impact of Conspiracy Theories on Health Behavior

People with strong beliefs about HIV being a government conspiracy were less likely to take precautions against STDs.

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Mischaracterization of Disagreements

The tendency to view those who disagree with us as unreasonable, lacking education, or being ignorant, despite evidence that even experts can be susceptible to this bias.

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Stages of Myside Bias

Myside bias affects various stages of information processing, from searching for evidence to forming memories about outcomes.

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Universality of Myside Bias

Myside bias is prevalent across different demographics, including experts, highly educated, and intelligent individuals.

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Intercepted Messages before Pearl Harbor

Interpreting intercepted messages that suggested a potential attack on multiple locations, including the Philippines, Panama, Southeast Asia, and the United States.

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Hindsight Bias and Unexpected Events

The phenomenon where unexpected or unlikely events seem almost inevitable after they occur.

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Hindsight Bias and Decision-Making

The tendency to attribute more certainty to events after they happen, leading to assumptions that actions could have been different.

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Excess Information Before Pearl Harbor

The fact that the US intercepted so many messages from Japanese forces that they stopped sending the information to the White House out of fear of jeopardizing their code-breaking efforts.

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Conspiracy Theories about 9/11

The belief that President Bush either allowed or deliberately orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.

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Hindsight Bias and Conspiracy Theories

The effect of hindsight bias amplifies during times of crisis, such as war, leading to the creation of conspiracy theories.

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August 6, 2001 Memo

A memo from August 6, 2001, that warned of possible terrorist attacks by Al-Qaeda, including hijacked planes, bombing the World Trade Center, and attacks on Washington, D.C.

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Let It Happen On Purpose (LIHOP)

A conspiracy theory associated with the Pearl Harbor attack, suggesting that President Roosevelt deliberately allowed the attack to occur.

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Conspiracy Theory

The tendency to believe that complex events are orchestrated by hidden groups or individuals with malicious intent.

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Made It Happen On Purpose (MIHOP)

A conspiracy theory associated with the Pearl Harbor attack, suggesting that President Roosevelt deliberately caused the attack.

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Simplicity of Conspiracy Theories

The idea that conspiracy theories are appealing because they provide simple answers to complex questions.

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Competing Signals

The phenomenon where competing or contradicting information can make it difficult to identify clear signals and warnings.

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Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theories

A conspiracy theory involving the claim that the attack on Pearl Harbor was a planned act of aggression by the US.

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Noise in Intelligence

A significant amount of information that doesn't help in predicting a specific event.

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Conspiracy Theory Effect

The effect of belief in conspiracy theories on people's actions.

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Surprise

The failure to predict an event despite receiving signals that could have indicated the event's possibility

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JFK Film Study

A study that showed viewers of the film 'JFK' were less likely to participate in political activities.

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Climate Change Conspiracy Study

A study that found people exposed to climate change conspiracy theories were less likely to reduce their carbon footprint.

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Vaccination Conspiracies

The belief that vaccinations are part of a conspiracy by the government or the medical establishment.

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Conspirator Portrayal

The tendency for conspiracy theories to portray conspirators as incredibly capable and evil.

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Frank Olson Case

A CIA scientist who was given LSD and later jumped to his death, often cited as evidence for a conspiracy.

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Study Notes

Proxy and Tribal Conspiracism

  • Conspiracies and conspiracy theories are studied by the author.
  • Politicians and the public believe in conspiracy theories, including the fluoridation of water a scam, 9/11 being an inside job, and assassinations being part of a larger conspiracy.
  • The author focuses on why smart people believe obviously false conspiracy theories.
  • Conspiracy effect: smart people believe blatantly wrong things for seemingly rational reasons.

Proxy Truths and Tribal Truths

  • Beliefs in conspiracy theories are not just about the specific theory, but also about the underlying proxy truths and tribal truths accepted by believers.
  • Proxy truths: the general truths believers accept, even if underlying theory is wrong.
  • Tribal truths: beliefs that reinforce a sense of tribal identity.

Belief-Dependent Realism

  • Beliefs often arise from subjective experiences, emotions, and the environment (family, friends, culture) rather than factual evidence.
  • Beliefs come first, explanations for beliefs arrive later.
  • Reason and logic are used to justify and support existing beliefs, and disconfirming evidence is ignored or reinterpreted.

Motivated Reasoning

  • People tend to favor and reinforce beliefs that accord with their values and perspectives.
  • Confirmation bias: the tendency to seek and interpret information in a way that confirms existing beliefs or hypotheses.

Cognitive Dissonance

  • Cognitive dissonance arises from the conflict between beliefs and new information.
  • Individuals resolve dissonance by reinterpreting, minimizing, or dismissing the new information to maintain their existing beliefs.

Proportionality Problem

  • Imbalance between the size, severity, or importance of an event and its purported cause.
  • Conspiracy theories often propose disproportionate or improbable causes to explain large-scale events, leading to cognitive dissonance.

Global Coherence

  • Conspiratorial beliefs tend to form connected, cohesive networks of interconnected ideas;
  • This creates a sense of a unified, consistent worldview even when specific conspiracy theories contradict each other.

Myside Bias

  • The tendency to evaluate information in a way that favors one’s own perspective and disfavors opposing perspectives.
  • Believers in conspiracy theories frequently tend to reject evidence that contradicts their beliefs and accept evidence supporting them.

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Proxy and Tribal Conspiracism PDF

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Explore the intersection of conspiracy theories and human belief systems in this insightful quiz. Delve into why intelligent individuals may adopt seemingly irrational beliefs and understand the roles of proxy truths and tribal identities. Discover the complexities behind belief-dependent realism and its impact on how people perceive the world around them.

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