Confidence, Calibration, and Accuracy

Questions and Answers

What emotion triggers the desire to change one's circumstances?

Anger

Sadness (correct)

Disgust

Fear

Anger is associated with pessimistic estimates and risk-avoidant choices.

False

What is intertemporal choice?

Decisions about timing of costs and benefits spread over time.

The ability to resist the temptation for an immediate reward is known as _____

delay of gratification Signup and view all the answers

What is the difference between savoring and dread?

Savoring is anticipating positive outcomes; dread is contemplating unpleasant outcomes. Signup and view all the answers

High levels of delay discounting predict impulsive behavior.

True Signup and view all the answers

What motivates people to justify their decisions?

Accountability Signup and view all the answers

Training in _____ can help in improving decision-making.

rules, representations, and biases Signup and view all the answers

What is confidence?

The certainty with which we express judgments and decisions. Signup and view all the answers

Define calibration in the context of judgments.

Another way of measuring the relation between accuracy and confidence. Signup and view all the answers

What is the relation between accuracy and confidence in general knowledge questions?

Surprisingly low correlation between the two. Signup and view all the answers

What is resolution?

The ability to distinguish between correct and incorrect answers. Signup and view all the answers

What does calibration vs. confidence refer to in witness testimony?

Confident witnesses are deemed more credible than unconfident ones. Signup and view all the answers

How can overconfidence be reduced?

By intense feedback or considering why one may be wrong. Signup and view all the answers

What is the better than average effect?

Viewing oneself as better than average. Signup and view all the answers

Define the Downing effect.

People with below average IQ tend to overestimate their IQ. Signup and view all the answers

What is the planning fallacy?

The tendency to believe one's own project will proceed as planned. Signup and view all the answers

What are the types of questions used in questionnaire design?

Open ended and fixed choice questions. Signup and view all the answers

What are five rules for wording questions?

<ol> <li>Be simple and straightforward. 2. Be precise. 3. Avoid negative phrasing. 4. Avoid double-barreled items. 5. Avoid loaded items.</li> </ol> Signup and view all the answers

What are framing and question wording effects?

How the wording of a question can influence responses. Signup and view all the answers

Define types of framing effects.

Includes ceiling or floor effects and scaling effects. Signup and view all the answers

What is mental accounting?

Framing assets as belonging to current income, current wealth, or future income. Signup and view all the answers

Define the endowment effect.

Once people possess an object, losing it matters more than gaining it when they don't have it. Signup and view all the answers

What is prospect theory?

A descriptive theory that highlights reference level dependence, diminishing sensitivity, and loss aversion. Signup and view all the answers

What is the difference between prevention and detection in goal framing effects?

Negative framing promotes detection; positive framing is better for prevention. Signup and view all the answers

Define declining marginal utility.

As the amount of a good increases, each increment of increase is worth less than before. Signup and view all the answers

What are context effects?

Decision makers interpret new material based on personal experience and context. Signup and view all the answers

What are order effects?

The effect where the order of qualities in a question can influence judgment. Signup and view all the answers

What does introspection involve?

The examination of one's own conscious thoughts and feelings. Signup and view all the answers

Define anti-introspectionist theory.

Nisbett and Wilson's work suggests people cannot accurately report the stimuli affecting responses. Signup and view all the answers

What does 'thinking too much' refer to?

Analyzing reasons can lead to non-optimal criteria and poor choices. Signup and view all the answers

What is decision analysis?

A formal method to aid decision makers based on values and probabilities. Signup and view all the answers

What is MAUT?

Multi-attribute utility theory used for decisions involving multiple criteria. Signup and view all the answers

Define satisficing.

An acceptable but not optimal choice made after finding a satisfactory option. Signup and view all the answers

What does EBA stand for?

Elimination by aspects. Signup and view all the answers

What are mood effects in decision making?

Being in a positive mood can reduce risk aversion and improve decision-making efficiency. Signup and view all the answers

How do emotions differ from moods?

Moods are less specific, less intense, and longer-lasting than emotions. Signup and view all the answers

What is the connection between emotions and decision making?

There is a bidirectional relationship; decisions are made based on expected happiness. Signup and view all the answers

What is affective forecasting?

The tendency to overestimate the enduring effect of emotional states. Signup and view all the answers

What aspects characterize disgust?

Elicited by various stimuli, universal across cultures, and involves rejection based on knowledge. Signup and view all the answers

What is social disgust?

Describes morally-dubious acts through the same terminology as physical disgust. Signup and view all the answers

How does disgust influence decision making?

Disgust can increase the severity of moral judgments. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Confidence and Calibration

Confidence reflects the certainty in expressing judgments and decisions.
Calibration measures the relationship between accuracy and confidence, with perfect calibration indicating accurate judgments match expected probabilities.
Weather forecasts show nearly perfect calibration, whereas medical diagnoses often lack strong correlation between confidence and accuracy.

Accuracy and Confidence Relationships

Eyewitness confidence has low correlation with factual accuracy, leading to issues like overconfidence.
High-profile incidents (e.g., Challenger explosion, Chernobyl) highlight the risks of overconfidence in judgment.

Resolution and Question Design

Resolution is the ability to distinguish between correct and incorrect answers.
Effective questionnaire design utilizes open-ended and fixed-choice questions, including various types like simple dichotomies and Likert scales.

Framing and Context Effects

Framing effects can dramatically change responses based on the wording of questions (e.g., positive vs. negative framing).
Contextual influences, such as prior experiences, shape decision-making processes and perceived material.

Decision-Making Theories

Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) provides a structured approach to decision-making when different criteria must be weighed.
Satisficing refers to selecting an option that meets an acceptable level rather than seeking the optimal choice.

Emotional Impacts on Decisions

Moods are less intense and specific than emotions but significantly influence decision-making.
Disgust can alter moral evaluations and judgments, particularly in social contexts.

Risks and Behavioral Insights

Positive mood influences individuals to take fewer risks and make quicker decisions.
Fear typically leads to risk-averse choices, while anger can promote optimistic risk assessments.

Intertemporal Choice and Delay of Gratification

Intertemporal choice involves weighing future rewards against immediate ones, with dynamic inconsistency illustrating fluctuating valuation over time.
Delay of gratification demonstrates the ability to resist immediate rewards for greater long-term benefits, impacting decision outcomes.

Overconfidence and Psychological Effects

Overconfidence can distort self-assessments, as demonstrated by the better-than-average effect, where individuals often rate themselves above average.
The Downing effect describes how individuals with below-average performance tend to overrate their abilities, contrasting with those above average who tend to underestimate.

Key Findings on Disgust

Disgust is a universal emotion that varies significantly across cultures, linked to adaptive behaviors for avoiding harm.
Social disgust ties moral judgments to feelings typically associated with physical disgust, affecting perceptions of character and morality.

Conclusion on Decision Analysis

Decision analysis is a formal method aimed at helping individuals clarify values and make choices consistent with their goals.
Affective forecasting reveals potential biases in predicting emotional responses to future outcomes, often leading to misjudgments in decision-making processes.### Savoring vs. Dread
Savoring refers to the positive utility gained from anticipating favorable outcomes.
Dread involves negative contemplation regarding unpleasant outcomes.

Individual Differences in Discount Rates Predict Impulsive Behavior

High delay discounting is indicative of financial impulsivity.
Study utilized a large-scale survey from the BBC to analyze impulsive decision-making.
Included discounting questions comparing immediate versus delayed rewards.
Choosing smaller, immediate rewards correlated with demographics: younger individuals, lower income, less education.
Associated behavioral patterns included earlier sexual activity, relationship infidelity, smoking habits, and higher BMI.

Approaches to Improving Decision Making

Motivational Approaches:
- Distinction between performance and competence; effective when benefits exceed costs.
- Incentives can enhance performance on tasks but may not always influence decision-making due to automatic processes.
Accountability:
- Expectations of justifying decisions can enhance decision-making quality.
- Encourages preemptive self-criticism and requires effective decision-making strategies.
- Can successfully reduce biases, such as sunk costs.
Cognitive Strategy Modifications:
- Techniques like "consider the opposite" can diminish biases (e.g., hindsight, overconfidence, groupthink).
- Directs attention to contrary evidence often overlooked.
Training Components:
- Focus on learning rules (economics and logic), understanding representations (frequencies vs. probabilities), and recognizing biases.
Cognitive Repairs:
- Use of local proverbs and practices enhances memorability and applicability.
Decision-Making Tools:
- Groups may support error checks and increase decision-quality but may also hinder effectiveness due to social influence.
- Supplementing intuition with formal analysis and using decision aids (like MAUT, EBA, and satisficing) can improve outcomes.

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Description

This quiz explores the relationship between confidence and accuracy in judgments, highlighting the concepts of calibration and the impact of framing effects. It discusses case studies where overconfidence has led to significant consequences. Test your understanding of effective question design and resolution as well.