Climate Change and Plant Invasions

Climate Change and Plant Invasions: Restoration Opportunities

• Climate change can both increase and decrease the risk of plant invasions.
• Bioclimatic envelope modeling predicts range expansion and contraction for invasive plants.
• Yellow starthistle and tamarisk are likely to expand their range.
• Cheatgrass and spotted knapweed may shift, expanding and contracting in range.
• Leafy spurge is predicted to contract.
• Invasive species contracting could offer restoration opportunities.
• Identifying and establishing native or novel species in these areas is a significant ecological challenge.

Introduction

• Invasive plants are a major global concern, impacting ecosystems and increasing control costs.
• Invasive species risk is expected to increase due to climate change, enhanced competitiveness.
• Climate change, however, may reduce the competitiveness of some invasive plants if conditions become unsuitable.
• This could create opportunities for restoration.
• Previous research has identified expanded risks of some invasive plants due to climate change.
• Climate change impacts species distributions globally and regionally due to climate conditions.

Background

• Centaurea solstitialis (yellow starthistle) is an annual forb, a significant agricultural pest, and a water user.
• Tamarix species are shrubs often found in riparian ecosystems, displacing native plants and impacting water resources.
• Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) is an invasive annual grass, leading to increased fire frequency and soil erosion.
• Centaurea biebersteinii (spotted knapweed) is a perennial forb, invading grasslands and outcompeting native species.
• Euphorbia esula (leafy spurge) is an invasive perennial herb dominating northern grasslands.

Materials and Methods

• Bioclimatic envelope models were constructed to analyze the relationship between invasive plant distributions and climate conditions.
• Plant distributions were based on regional and county level data including surveys and remote sensing.
• Non-native range data is used for invasive species climate envelopes.
• Climatic and competitive conditions in relation to native ranges are considered to predict invasions in non-native ranges.
• Climatic variables used include monthly and annual precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures.
• Mahalanobis distance, a multivariate technique, was used to define species distributions within geographic areas.

Results

• Centaurea solstitialis are highly constrained by factors like summer and spring precipitation and winter/spring minimum temperatures.
• Climatically suitable areas for Tamarix spp. are widespread and little affected by climate change.
• Bromus tectorum climate suitable habitat shifts northward but reduces risk in other areas.
• Centaurea biebersteinii is impacted by factors like summer precipitation, minimum temperatures, and summer/winter temperatures.
• Euphorbia esula is influenced by winter precipitation, minimum temperatures, spring maximum temperatures, and annual precipitation.

Discussion

• Precipitation was the dominant climate variable affecting invasive plant distribution.
• Modeling using an ensemble approach from multiple Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) projections provides robust species projections.

Figures and Tables

• Figures illustrate distribution changes of the five invasive species and their potential response to climate change.
• Tables show the percentage of invaded areas with potential for restoration under future climate change scenarios.

Explore how climate change affects plant invasions and their implications for ecosystem restoration. This quiz covers bioclimatic envelope models, specific invasive species predictions, and the ecological challenges of establishing native species. Learn about the potential balance between invasive species expansion and opportunities for conservation.