Challenges to Liberal Order & US Foreign Policy

• These notes cover challenges to the liberal order, the resurgence of Russia, the rise of China, the "forever war" on terror, humanitarian intervention, and the impact of military technology and climate change on U.S. foreign policy.

Bipolarity vs. Unipolarity

• During the Cold War (1945-1991), the world was characterized by bipolarity, with the United States and the Soviet Union as the two dominant superpowers.
• The US had allies including France, Britain, and Japan.
• The Soviet Union had allies including Cuba, Poland and Syria.
• After the Cold War, a unipolar world emerged, with the United States as the sole center of power.
• The US aimed to shape international relations based on its theories of law, economics, and rights.

Balancing and American Foreign Policy

• Balancing is a concept where countries prevent any one power from becoming too dominant, often through military means and alliances.
• Post-Cold War, the US pursued strategies to extend its military primacy and integrate the world into a liberal order based on capitalism and alliances with the US.
• Convergence was envisioned in three stages: economic globalization, rule of law, and domestic reform, leading to cooperation and limited global power expansion.
• The Washington Consensus pushed non-capitalist countries to reform to meet global economic demands, with foreign aid tied to these standards.
• Humanitarian intervention, including military action, was considered to remove violent regimes and promote international law and democracy.

Challenges to Convergence

• The idea of global convergence faced challenges.
• Bill Clinton's administration (1993-2001) focused on enlarging the community of market-based democracies, particularly in Eastern Europe after the fall of communist regimes, with some success through NATO expansion.
• George W. Bush (2001-2009) emphasized democratic ideals through economic force, partly driven by the war on terror, aiming to reshape governments according to US vision.
• Barack Obama (2009-2017) sought shared cooperation, including with China, and adopted a more realist approach, accepting the existing spheres of influence of countries like China and Russia.
• Divergence arose from the tensions between self-determination and spheres of influence or territorial conquest.

Russia's Resurgence

• Russia views Ukraine as a state created by Russia, and not a real country
• Russia challenges the liberal international order and international law, seeking recognition as a global power.
• Putin feels the West has imposed a liberal order, restricting Russia's expansion.
• Putin redefines sovereignty as autonomy and independence, ensuring a country's security and welfare without depending on others.
• Putin considers the fall of the Soviet Union a major disaster due to the loss of international influence.
• Russia aims for neighboring countries to align with or against it, viewing NATO expansion as a threat.

Russia and the Global War on Terror

• Post-9/11, Putin hoped that aiding the Bush administration in the fight against terrorism would lead to a pause in support for Ukraine.
• In 2007, Putin criticized U.S. foreign policy as an "almost unconstrained hyper use of force" aiming to create a unipolar world.
• Since 2014, Russia has pursued military buildup, advanced nuclear weapons, and undermined democracy through election interference.
• Russia's poor demographic outlook and dependence on oil and gas could make it a dangerous power, potentially distracting its population with external conflicts.

The War in Ukraine and Conflicting Perspectives

• Some argue that Russia's actions in Ukraine are a result of the West's actions in Russia's backyard and are predictable.
• The 2008 NATO summit, which discussed supporting Ukraine and Georgia, crossed a red line for Moscow.
• Others argue that the West did not force Russia's actions and emphasize Ukraine's desire for closer ties with the EU and the West.
• The relatively fair election of a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine in 2010, the 2012 EU deal, and the 2013 protests over the rejection of the EU deal all contributed to the conflict.
• The conflict escalated with the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion.

Different Playbooks and Implications

• The US and Russia operate with different playbooks: Russia with a realist perspective focused on security through strength, and the US with liberal ideals promoting free markets and democracy.
• The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition, with Russia occupying about 20% of Ukrainian land.
• $400 billion has been spent on aid to Ukraine, with over $100 billion from the US.
• The war highlights the clash between liberal norms, national self-determination, and great power competition.
• The potential use of nuclear weapons raises questions about the West's willingness to defend Ukraine.
• Parallels are drawn between the situation in Ukraine and the issue of Taiwan.

The Rise of China: Cooperation Through Prosperity

• The U.S. has tried to persuade China to cooperate on political issues through economic means.
• China's entry into the WTO in 2001 led to exponential economic growth, becoming the manufacturing center of the world.
• China adopted a strategy of "hiding its strength and biding its time," focusing on domestic economic and social development while avoiding confrontation with the U.S.
• The 2008 financial crisis marked a turning point, with the U.S. seen as a declining superpower.
• China has become a multifaceted global power, with greater diversification than Russia, and is engaging in regional economic competition.

China's Regional and Global Ambitions

• China seeks to change the regional order without resorting to war, aiming for a sphere of influence through peaceful means.
• The US maintains a strong network of military bases and alliances in the region.
• The US wants China to accept the liberal order, maintain open trade relations, and prevent the rise of hostile powers.
• The US acknowledges Beijing as the legitimate government of China but does not explicitly state that Taiwan is part of China.
• The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act provides Taiwan with military assistance
• "Strategic Ambiguity" is employed to keep the situation in Taiwan undefined.

Future Relations: Conflict or Cooperation?

• Great power rivalry suggests conflict is inevitable, with gains for Beijing seen as losses for Washington.
• Economic interdependence creates mutual dependence and shared interests, but mistrust could lead to a technological arms race.
• Liberal optimists believe that increased trade will enforce cooperation and that international institutions and democratization will promote peace.
• Realists and pessimists argue that as China's economic growth continues the investment in military will grow, leading to China redrawing boundaries in the South China Sea.

Hegemonic Transition

• Historical hegemonic transitions, like the growth of Athens alarming Sparta, often lead to conflict (Thucydides Trap).
• The transition from Great Britain to the United States as the hegemonic power was achieved without catastrophic violence.
• The US tried to incorporate China into the liberal hegemony through trade markets and treaties.
• The US wanted china to participate, even if there's cheating.
• The peaceful transition hinged on a shared political culture and similar strategic choices by the hegemon.
• "Sense of sameness", Great Britian and US looked a lot like each other in late 19th century.
• Economic values of the US and the UK were starting to align.

China's Trajectory and Challenges

• Unlike the British-American transition, the Chinese-American transition may be more prone to conflict due to differing political cultures.
• China is becoming a political prosperity that may be necessary to have long term success.
• China's system of authoritarian capitalism presents an alternative to liberal capitalism.
• Millions are employed to surveil the China's people and export Chinese surveillance technology.
• Examples of human rights issues are Xinjiang(Uyghur muslims) and Hong Kong.
• China no longer sticks with "hiding and biding", where they do not make themselves noticeable.
• Xi Jinping has become more assertive in territorial claims in East Asia and has invested heavily in its military.
• China supported Russia in the war on Ukraine and become more aggressive in dealing with international business.
• Economic competition with the US is increasing.

The Taiwan Issue and Global Reordering

• Taiwan is a key point of contention in US-China relations.
• Differing views exist on whether the US should maintain strategic ambiguity to deter China or be more explicit in its defense commitments to Taiwan.
• China's growing alignment with Russia and unmet global challenges complicate the relationship with the US.
• China and the US are undercutting each others initiatives and asking other countries to choose sides.

The "Forever War"

• The US has had an excessive focus on taxes and global war
• The American way of war: selling war, taxing war, unilateral war.
• The Iraq war was said to "pay for itself" using Iraq's oil money to pay for its own reconstruction.
• Public sacrifice: US doesn’t want to give a war tax.
• Limited sacrifice: leads to public constraint.
• Afghan model of warfare: use of limited resources arguably is the reason they stayed in Afghanistan longer than any war in history.
• Iraq was another war without direct costs to the American Taxpayer.
• Unilateral interventions under the Obama administration: Libya 2011 and Islamic State 2014.
• Presidential use of force: The Obama administration argued that the airstrikes were not hostilities because there were no threats to US forces.

Humanitarian Intervention

• United Nations Peacekeeping: deploys multi national force to prevent mass atrocity.
• Has to be consensual from the states that are fighting and no use of force, except self defense.
• Humanitarian Intervention: military intervention and not based off consent and often are force based in prevention of civilian slaughter.
• Strong support of the UN from the US
• Somalia 1992-93
  • 1992 UN Intervention leads to the deaths of 100’s and thousands of people
  • 1993 “Black Hawk Down” - 2 Black hawk helicopters were shot down resulting of death of 18 soldiers
• Bosnia 1992-95
  • 1992 UN Protection Force - United Nations had no mandate to use force against the aggressors
  • 1995 Srebrenica Massacre: Safe zone protected from violence, 8,000 muslims were massacared by the Serbs
• The Rwandan Genocide 1994
  • 1 million Rwandans were killed in just 100 days
  • The US didn't intervene when they knew of the atrocities and were too concerned with politics and bureaucratic factors
• America and the Age of Genocide: The United States must also be prepared to risk the lives of its soldiers in the service of stopping this monstrous crime.
• Why didn’t the United States Intervene?
  • Another Somalia?
  • Radio Jamming Debate
• Obama’s Idealist and Libya 2011:
  • Intention - Prevent massacare; targeting the extreme government in Libya
  • Outcome - regime change
  • What happens the day after you remove the only source of stability (Dictator)?
• Obama’s “red line” - There should be certain limits of what we are willing to withstand in foreign wars: Syria 2013. Afghanistan and Iraq and the “Day After” theme involves planning for the day after: August 2021: Taliban retake Afghanistan.

Global War on Terror

• Terrorism and U.S. Foreign policy consists of: excessive focus on terrorism, military campaign, and high costs of U.S. counter-terrorism.
• Defining Terrorism: intimidation and influence.
• Terrorism is provocation: terror lottery and policy consequences of fear.
• Targeted Killings and Drone Strikes
• Counterterrorism’s Enduring Popularity: government mandate and public opinion.
• The Terror Trap and blowback: Cycle of fear and overreaction.
• No military solution to political problem.

Nuclear Weapons and U.S. Foreign Policy

• Proliferation - An increase in the number or spread of nuclear weapons
• Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT):
• Original five nuclear powers: United States (1945), Soviet Union (1949), Britain (1952), France (1960), China (1964)
• Non-NPT: Israel (1969), India (1974), Pakistan (1998), North Korea (2006)
• U.S. Extended Nuclear Deterrence: “Nuclear Umbrella”
• Categories of Nuclear Use: Nuclear Retaliation, Nuclear first use, Negative Security Guarantees (if you are a nuclear arm state the U.S. will attack preemptively)
• Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD): Launch a nuclear weapon when a war isn’t wanted
• First Strike Capability: The U.S. could destroy all of an adversaries nuclear weapons.
• The situation of South Korea: supported the proliferation of a nuclear weapon.
• Rise and Fall of Iran Nuclear Deal:
  • 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
  • 2018 Trump Withdrawl
• The Instability of Nuclear Imbalance: Israel's nuclear monopoly.
• The North Korean Nuclear Threat: missiles could be in their capability.

Climate Change

• Climate change can trigger social and economic upheaval and is an example of global conflict as it affects Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia.
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an Example of liberal international order in action.
• 2015 Paris Agreement - U.S.-China Success; 2020 Trump Withdrawl.
• National Security and the Threat of Climate Change consist of: Water Scarcity; Internal (Civil) Conflict and International Conflict.
• The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Scarcity of basic needs -> Greater scarcity, greater competition.
• Conditions ripe for extremism and operations under scarcity of resources, as nothing to lose.
• The Prospect of international Conflict over Water
  • Shared river systems
  • Himalayan Glaciers and Asia’s Major Rivers: India, Pakistan and China all have nuclear weapons.
  • Water War Scenarios: Civil War and War with India.

Military Technology

• Revolution in military affairs emerges in technologies so disruptive that they overtake existing military concepts and capabilities
• Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Technologies: AI Systems as the ultimate upgrade.
• Military Modernization concerns Military Superiority Today and Future.
• Barriers to Military Modernization: Ethical concerns and Political Barriers to Military Modernization.
• Information Security: Misinformation and Disinformation. Make common Knowledge contested in Presidential elections.
• The Future of the U.S. Foreign policy consists of China, Climate Change, Military activism and blowback.
• Institutions, interests, ideas, and historical experiences.