Asset Allocation: Types and Classes

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Questions and Answers

In the context of advanced asset allocation, which statement best characterizes the challenge posed by estimation errors in the mean-variance optimization framework?

  • Estimation errors can be effectively mitigated by increasing the diversification of the portfolio, thereby reducing the sensitivity of portfolio weights to input parameters.
  • Estimation errors primarily affect the Sharpe ratio, leading to overestimation of portfolio performance, but have minimal impact on asset weights.
  • Estimation errors in expected returns and volatilities are amplified by the optimization process, leading to unstable and often nonsensical portfolio weights that do not generalize out-of-sample. (correct)
  • Estimation errors mostly affect the correlation matrix, causing diversification benefits to be overstated, but have a predictable impact on portfolio risk.

Considering the historical performance data spanning from 1870 to 2015, what is the most accurate conclusion regarding the real returns of housing versus equity?

  • Housing consistently outperforms equity in real terms across all sub-periods due to its lower volatility and stable demand.
  • Equity's real returns are primarily driven by dividend income, whereas housing's real returns are predominantly determined by capital gains, resulting in comparable total returns.
  • Equity generally provides higher average real returns compared to housing, but with significantly greater volatility and cyclicality. (correct)
  • Housing and equity exhibit similar average real returns over the long term, but housing demonstrates superior risk-adjusted returns during economic expansions.

Under what conditions would a dynamically rebalanced portfolio underperform a static buy-and-hold portfolio, assuming transaction costs are non-negligible and the investor strictly adheres to mean-variance optimization?

  • When the portfolio includes only highly liquid assets and the investor has perfect foresight regarding future market movements but incorrectly estimates transaction costs.
  • During sustained bull markets where the underperforming assets are systematically sold off, leading to a gradual convergence of the portfolio to a single asset class.
  • During prolonged periods of low volatility and positive correlation between asset classes, as the transaction costs outweigh the marginal benefits of rebalancing. (correct)
  • When market returns follow a geometric Brownian motion and the investor’s risk aversion is extremely high, necessitating frequent rebalancing.

In the context of the Black-Litterman model, the incorporation of investor views invariably leads to a more diversified portfolio compared to a portfolio derived solely from market equilibrium, assuming the confidence levels associated with these views are non-negligible.

<p>False (B)</p>
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Formulate a concise explanation of how the Modigliani-Miller theorem’s assumptions, when violated in real-world capital markets influence the efficacy of asset allocation strategies predicated on mean-variance optimization.

<p>Violations of Modigliani-Miller assumptions like taxes and bankruptcy costs introduce imperfections impacting asset returns and correlations, thereby altering optimal allocations derived from pure mean-variance frameworks.</p>
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In the context of portfolio optimization, the phenomenon where similar risk profiles of assets lead to increased correlation during market downturns, thereby diminishing diversification benefits, is best described as ______ correlation.

<p>contagion</p>
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Match each asset class characteristic with its corresponding implication for portfolio diversification strategies:

<p>High positive correlation between assets = Reduced diversification benefits during systemic shocks. Non-normal return distributions (e.g., skewness, kurtosis) = Increased exposure to unforeseen risks. Low liquidity = Diversification benefits increase, but active management becomes crucial.</p>
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What inherent problems arise when employing mean-variance optimization using a historical dataset that includes a structural break, such as a regime shift in monetary policy or a major regulatory change?

<p>The estimated covariance matrix will be biased, leading to suboptimal asset allocation as it incorrectly projects future correlations and volatilities based on outdated relationships. (D)</p>
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In the context of incorporating ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors into a mean-variance optimization framework, what potential biases or challenges might arise from relying exclusively on third-party ESG ratings?

<p>ESG ratings may exhibit significant discrepancies across different rating agencies due to methodological variations, potentially leading to inconsistent portfolio allocations and greenwashing. (C)</p>
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Tactical asset allocation, in contrast to strategic asset allocation, inherently assumes that markets are informationally efficient.

<p>False (B)</p>
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Describe the implications of Stein's Paradox on the estimation of expected returns in high-dimensional asset allocation problems, and propose a method to mitigate its adverse effects.

<p>Stein's Paradox states that in high dimensions, shrinking individual asset return estimates toward a common mean improves accuracy. Mitigate by employing shrinkage estimators like James-Stein or Bayesian methods.</p>
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In the context of robust portfolio optimization, the technique that seeks to minimize the worst-case realization of portfolio loss across a predefined uncertainty set of return distributions is known as ______ optimization.

<p>distributionally robust</p>
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Match each risk factor with its established method for mitigation in a diversified portfolio:

<p>Inflation Risk = Employing Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) or commodity-linked assets Volatility Risk = Utilizing hedging instruments such as options or variance swaps Currency Risk = Implementing global diversification across multiple currency zones</p>
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Considering the limitations of traditional mean-variance optimization, which alternative objective function best addresses the issue of tail risk exposure in portfolio construction?

<p>Minimizing the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), as it explicitly targets the expected losses beyond a specified confidence level. (D)</p>
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Analyze the effect of transaction costs on the optimal rebalancing frequency within a mean-variance optimized portfolio, considering the tradeoff between maintaining target asset allocations and minimizing costs. What happens to the optimal rebalancing frequency is transaction costs are extremely high?

<p>Decreases to zero because any potential gains are negated by the high costs, leading to a buy-and-hold static strategy. (D)</p>
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Empirical evidence universally supports the notion that high-frequency rebalancing consistently enhances the risk-adjusted returns of a mean-variance optimized portfolio, irrespective of transaction costs and market conditions.

<p>False (B)</p>
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Explain why, from a decision-theoretic perspective, investors with identical utility functions may arrive at different optimal asset allocations when confronted with identical market conditions yet subjected to varying cognitive biases. How do these biases influence the inputs to the mean-variance optimization?

<p>Cognitive biases alter the subjective perception of expected returns, volatilities, and correlations, leading to divergent inputs and, hence, varying optimal allocations despite identical utility and market conditions.</p>
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When returns exhibit statistically significant negative skewness, traditional mean-variance optimization often leads to portfolios that ______ the probability of extreme losses, thus contradicting the intended risk-averse behavior of investors.

<p>underestimate</p>
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Match each advanced technique for mitigating estimation error in mean-variance optimization to its key function:

<p>Resampled Efficiency = Averages multiple efficient frontiers created with bootstrapped return distributions improving portfolio stability. Black-Litterman Allocation = Incorporates investor-specified views on asset returns using a Bayesian approach to blend prior and signal. Constrained Optimization = Imposes constraints on portfolio weights based on economic priors and investor insights.</p>
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What conclusion can be reliably drawn from historical analyses regarding the performance of strategic versus tactical asset allocation strategies in different market regimes?

<p>The relative performance of strategic versus tactical allocation is highly sensitive to the accuracy of forecasting models within tactical strategy. (B)</p>
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Flashcards

What is asset allocation?

Splitting an investment portfolio among various asset classes like stocks, bonds, and cash.

Why asset allocation for diversification?

Asset allocation provides more diversification, since correlation between asset classes is often lower than within security selection.

What is strategic asset allocation?

Staying aligned with fixed weights for assets like stocks, bonds and cash.

Advantage of rebalancing?

Selling high and buying low when rebalancing your portfolio.

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What is Tactical asset allocation?

An investment strategy that is dynamic.

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What is an asset class?

A group of economic resources sharing similar features, such as risk and return.

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Why those alternative asset classes?

Because their returns are negatively or weakly correlated with traditional assets.

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Main takeaways?

Gold is a safeheaven product with a lot of volatility

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Diversification in the hard times?

In bad times, the correlations between asset classes rise and get close to 1

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Asset allocation problem

Answering the question: How much of your wealth should you invest in each asset class (or asset)?

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Mean-variance portfolio analysis

Modern portfolio theory has its roots in this analysis.

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What is gamma?

Aversion to risk.

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Critical assumptions underlying the Mean-Variance optimization

Symmetric distribution(no higher order moments).

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Possible pitfalls/problems with Mean-Variance optimization

No higher order moments; you use estimated returns and volatility so there will be estimation errors;

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Home bias

Many investors do not take advantage of the benefits of international diversification and instead hold only domestic assets

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What accounts for home bias?

Correlation change over time. Exchange rate risk. Transaction costs. Asymmetric information. Behavioral biases.

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You care about upward potential

Diversification kills your changes of the big lottery payoff.

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Overall message

Diversification is good as it minimizes risks that are avoidable and idiosyncratic

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Study Notes

Asset Allocation Definition

  • Asset allocation involves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset classes like stocks, bonds, and cash
  • Diversification is a primary reason for asset allocation
  • It helps meet investment goals related to risk and return
  • Asset allocation depends on time horizon and risk tolerance
  • Asset allocation offers more diversification benefits due to lower correlation between asset classes

Types of Asset Allocation

  • Strategic asset allocation uses fixed weights for stocks, bonds, and cash
  • Strategic asset allocation involves rebalancing
  • Rebalancing involves selling an asset class when prices are high and buying when prices are low
  • Tactical asset allocation is another type
  • Tactical asset allocation involves a dynamic investment strategy

Asset Classes

  • An asset class is a group of economic resources sharing similar characteristics, such as riskiness and return
  • Traditional asset classes include stocks, bonds, and cash
  • Alternative asset classes include commodities, real estate, hedge funds, derivatives, ESG/Climate, and collectibles
  • Alternative asset classes are added to portfolios because they are negatively or weakly correlated with traditional assets

Asset Class Performance (2008-2024)

  • Presents historical asset class performance, from 2008-2024
  • Includes data on various asset classes like large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, international developed stocks, emerging market stocks, REITs, high-grade bonds, high-yield bonds, cash, and asset allocation portfolios
  • Past performance does not guarantee future returns
  • Investments aligned with financial goals and risk tolerance are encouraged
  • Asset Allocation Portfolio: 15% in large cap stocks, 15% in international stocks, 10% in small cap stocks, 10% in emerging market stocks, 10% in REITs, 40% in high-grade bonds, and annual rebalancing

Asset Classes: Performance (2024)

  • Lists returns by asset class
  • Gold outperformed the rest

Asset Classes: Correlations (1985-2024)

  • Gold is a safe-haven product and exhibits a lot of volatility
  • Correlations between asset classes rise and approach 1 during downtimes

Introduction: Goal

  • Asset allocation seeks to determine how much of one's wealth should be invested in each asset class
  • This area has seen significant advancements in the last forty years

Introduction: Mean-Variance

  • Modern portfolio theory is rooted in mean-variance portfolio analysis
  • Harry Markowitz developed it
  • Markowitz's work was the first step in developing modern finance

Introduction: Mean-Variance Optimization

  • The mean-variance optimization problem aims to maximize the expected return of a portfolio
  • Portfolio parameters include expected return [E(rp)] and variance

Key questions regarding Mean-Variance Optimization

  • Critical Assumption: Symmetric distribution (no higher-order moments)
  • Possible Pitfalls/Problems: it uses estimated returns and volatility, which can lead to estimation errors

Overview: Course

  • General: Goes over Traditional Mean-Variance
  • Input Parameters: How to estimate those inputs
  • Utility functions: Which moments to take into account

Overview: Course cont...

  • Stock, bonds and cash and Alternatives are acceptable asset classes
  • Factor Investing, Commodities, Real Estate and Hedge Funds are common ones
  • Recent developments in asset allocation: Robo-Advisory, ESG, ...

Mean-Variance

  • MV Frontier and Diversification
  • MV Optimization takes into account a Utility: Indifference Curves and Asset Universe

Home Bias

  • It's risky to invest only in the U.S. Market
  • International diversification benefits the investor
  • Home bias occurs because of correlation change over time, exchange rate risk, transaction costs, asymmetric information, and behavioral biases

Is Diversification Really a Free Lunch?

  • Yes, for diversification if the investor only cares about portfolio means and variances
  • No, when concerned about "downside risk" and/or "upward potential"

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